Hi, below is an excerpt from Bayer’s 2024 annual report, showing the expiration dates of Nubeqa’s molecule patent in key markets. Typically, efforts are made to build other types of patent protection for drugs as well (such as formulation patents or indication patents). However, the molecule patent is the most central and strongest protection, which is why it is usually referred to.
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To the roast:
-What is the CEO’s view; what are the most essential factors for Orion’s success in the 1, 3, 5, and 10-year timeframe? How does the CEO define this “Orion’s success”?
-Investments and R&D expenses growing by +35%. Which of these are the most essential, and where will these be visible for Orion?
-Expectations for Nubeqa sales development in the coming years? Both in terms of price and volume?
-Expectations for US “price regulation” that would impact Nubeqa’s sales price? There have been rumors about this on Twitter, which is likely behind the recent share price decline?
-What role do acquisitions play as part of Orion’s toolkit? In 2022, the acquisition of Inovet was carried out. What are the experiences from this?
-How does Orion utilize artificial intelligence 1. in drug development, and 2. in its operations?
-Which companies will disrupt the pharmaceutical industry and how? Which innovative companies will displace the legacy players? E.g., new business models with AI? Cf. Tesla and the automotive industry, Netflix and movies/TV etc.
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First of all, thanks to Verner for the excellent and well-executed Roast format. I have watched many Roasts even from companies that don’t interest me at all, as the format itself is so good.
Excellent question suggestions from fellow investors. For me, a big question regarding Orion is how a relatively small company on a global scale can keep up in the drug development competition and continue to develop successful products like Nubeqa in the future, even though the costs and risks of drug development are so high and the timeline is slow. Will its resources be sufficient in the future, or will larger players, who can diversify risks more effectively, ultimately take the pot, and Orion will decline into a manufacturer of hand creams and other generic products? On this topic, Liisa Hurmetta could be grilled with several questions.
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A basic question: Is there any possibility to partner with a domestic early-stage drug developer now or in the near future?
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Quite a roast of Orion, worth watching! A couple of scattered observations:
-Speculations about selling or spinning off parts of Orion don’t seem to be the primary projects, even though the uniqueness of the veterinary side was highlighted. For example, Mandatum was like a lion caged within Sampo, but it’s hard to see such parts in Orion, and thus the company’s different parts support each other.
-Acquisitions are in sight, but targeted ones, and in the order of USA, Japan, Europe. Especially “commercial platform in the USA” was mentioned.
-AI primarily speeds up the processing of drug development data, but not as much benefit when progressing to the clinical side. AI disruption in drug sales and distribution is not ruled out.
-The USA’s forced reduction of drug prices is comparable to America’s weariness of funding other countries’ defense. When the US market no longer pays for a large part of global drug development, pressure will shift to Europe, and prices will rise here. AstraZeneca’s CEO reiterated the same a few days ago.
-In the 10-year vision, Orion’s oncology portfolio, in particular, will be larger than it is now, and products will be sold worldwide.
-And the party leader of own shares had to bring up even the grandmother card to get dividends from the days 
Perhaps it should be added as a mitigating factor that Orion has de facto lowered its dividend recently, because the increase was below inflation.
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OP reported that Orion’s partner Bayer released its Q3 report and as part of it, Nubeqa’s product sales. Nubeqa’s Q3 sales were 622 million euros, while Bloomberg’s consensus estimate was 575 million euros. A significant beat of estimates creates upward pressure on Q4/25 and next year’s Nubeqa sales forecasts.
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Right. Strange stock behavior - though the decline seems to have stopped. Bayer, at least, is up about 2%. We await a possible positive profit warning from Orion and hopefully new indications and permission for additional sales next year. At least early-stage prostate cancer (to a layman’s eye) could be a low-hanging fruit,
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Orion’s CEO Liisa Hurme was talking about the company’s business at the Investor 2025 event 
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€180M Nubeqa Milestone Payment and Outlook Update:
New Outlook Estimate for 2025, issued 3 December 2025
Revenue is estimated to be €1,820–1,900 million.
Operating profit is estimated to be €590–670 million.
Previous Outlook Estimate for 2025, issued 28 October 2025
Revenue is estimated to be €1,640–1,720 million.
Operating profit is estimated to be €410–490 million.
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Here are Antti’s comments regarding that recent release.
Orion announced on Wednesday that it would receive a EUR 180 million milestone payment based on the sales of the prostate cancer drug Nubeqa. The milestone payment is the last lump sum related to Nubeqa and will be recorded in the last quarter of 2025. With the confirmation of the payment, the company updated its outlook for 2025. The payment has already been in our forecasts for Q4, so the news does not put pressure on forecast changes.
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Orion was covered in Kauppalehti’s Post-Market program.
There was nothing particularly noteworthy in the comments; only the milestone payment news was commented on in a neutral tone:
“In principle, the news was good, although expected by analysts. Reasons for the negative share price reaction can be sought from the fact that the company raised its revenue and operating profit guidance only by the amount of the milestone payment. Most analysts’ revenue forecasts were at the upper end of the new revenue range or above it before the news. The most probable reason is that investors are just too nervous – perhaps now would be a good time to take something to calm down.”
Orion is one of the largest direct equity investments in my portfolio (weight approx. 3%), and will remain so for the foreseeable future.
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Tomorrow, Orion will participate in Inderes’ company evening, which includes the company’s presentation and a Q&A session. Questions can be submitted during the event via chat or through the forum. Messages sent here by tomorrow morning will still be reached.
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