I was just about to write the same thing, but you beat me to it… I’ll post my own thoughts here anyway.
Amidst all this talk of share issues, it’s worth keeping in mind that the CEO is the face of the company, and sometimes even a salesman for investors. In my short investing career, I’ve heard so many CEOs publicly deny a share issue that was just around the corner, so these statements shouldn’t be given too much weight. Imagine a situation where a CEO admits that an issue is coming or even being planned—the share price would collapse immediately.
In my eyes, a share issue is just as likely as it was before Himber’s comments, meaning it’s completely possible; the only thing we can try to estimate is the timing. Personally, I would bet on a potential share issue after this ~$2M deal is realized, once we have another quarter or two of better performance under our belts, giving the share price a boost and making the issue look more like growth financing rather than a distress offering, which would make the dilution less brutal.
Of course, it could also happen that this amount, realized during H2, buys enough time and opportunity for the business to develop that a share issue might even be avoided, but it’s worth noting the timeline on which deals have materialized so far. It’s rare to achieve strong growth by tightening the belt.
To be honest, my first reaction when the report was released was “here we go again,” but after chewing on it a bit more, the feeling improved.
That recurring revenue continued to grow, which is what every Optomed shareholder hopes for, and that is the most important thing here. In my opinion, investors don’t quite understand how this “hockey stick” growth will manifest at some point. If we are talking about hundreds of percent in U.S. growth, you can imagine what that growth would look like if it had been delivered as Capex. The improvement in the gross margin also signals that things are brewing under the surface. I personally believe that Q3 is going to be strong, as a larger portion of that big 2.1M deal will be recorded then. And that might still come as a surprise to the market.
If this beast continues to run at this pace, I expect the current cash position will last without needing share issues. We are not that far from the break-even point, after which that recurring revenue will keep the shareholders smiling.
The absence of any mention of China and Big Pharma in the interview was a bit strange, especially since the meritorious social media followers here have reported a lot of activity from that direction. These are hardly priced into the stock anymore. After all, Juho was expecting revenue from China in H2, and now we can only hope that nothing has changed regarding that. I also think Juho’s delivery in the interview was on much firmer ground than in the last few interviews.
I will continue my journey on this ride and, for now, I believe the CEO’s story.
Juho strongly implied that RR (recurring revenue) will start to show more clearly in the Q3 and Q4 figures. Presumably, no billing accumulates during pilots and trials, and it’s likely we are now getting past that phase.
Himberg’s interview was, for once, full of good points, and his demeanor was even downright relaxed:
The technological risk has been removed.
The market is not rejecting the new technology.
There is no need to chase individual deals across the globe; instead, we can focus on the U.S. market with Aurora AEYE and cut back on R&D costs.
Strategic choice: focusing on key markets and strengthening sales.
We are confident in revenue growth during the latter part of the year.
Demand outlook: major negotiations ongoing.
Cash flow will improve in the future. The business model does not consume cash or require working capital to the same extent as capital sales.
Sales and deployments have accelerated thanks to the EPIC integration. Other integrations are in preparation. Focus is on developing integrations.
We are approaching positive earnings.
Software: profitable, tender processes ongoing, with a high probability of winning some, delivery projects in H2, and invoicing is increasing.
And there was no making excuses here; the figures in the income statement told the same story.
An interesting reaction in the share price first thing in the morning. It dipped almost -10% (back to the same level as in June before the deal was announced), meaning the market only knew how to read the top line of the results, and after that, it was just the usual nonsense. By the afternoon, it corrected to sensible numbers. I am calm regarding the company. By all logic, this should bounce back to pre-May earnings levels in a heartbeat.
Yes. I was thinking exactly the same thing during the opening dip, that it’s being served up on a silver platter right now. The situation is many times better and the outlook is brighter than before the big acquisition in the summer, yet the dip is down to the same level as before the deal.
The value of Optomed’s inventory has grown steadily throughout the year, so it will be interesting to see how it clears in H2/2026 once the $2.1M USD deal scheduled for delivery is completed.
Exactly. The company now has about 6.7 million in cash. In the past quarter, they burned through a million, which is indeed less than it used to be—if I recall correctly, it was around 1.5 million per quarter.
The situation is somewhat improved by the capex order worth a couple of million announced in June. But since it’s unlikely all those cameras are sitting in stock, it will probably require more or less cash to manufacture them. And since AI solutions are also being sold, there needs to be money for those too, as expenses hit immediately while the revenue comes… eventually. Not to mention other operating expenses. So, how far will that 6 million actually last? You can’t let the cash pile run completely dry, so a share issue will likely be done sooner rather than later. The last private placement was done in 12/2025, when, according to the latest Q3 interim report, there was 5.3 million in the account. A quick look at the 2025 Q4 report suggests that around the time of the issue, there might have been something in the region of 4 million in cash. We aren’t that far from that level at this burn rate, are we?
I haven’t had time to watch Kinnunen’s interview yet, but if they were painting a picture of hundreds of percent growth in ARR as I understood from reading the thread, that’s a pretty wild promise even for Himberg. Q-on-Q, ARR revenue has grown by about 50,000 euros, which doesn’t exactly move the needle much. Of course, since the beginning of the year, some of the software revenue previously reported as ARR has been reported as recognized at a single point in time, which may dampen the reported growth of the ARR. However, since we don’t know how the ARR is split between hardware and software, and considering the weak growth in the hardware segment, I assume that those AI camera solutions haven’t exactly been flying off the shelves yet.
It wasn’t just painted in rosy colors, it was “the growth is massive - we are talking about hundreds of percent growth compared to last year.” I’m referring to Aurora AEYE’s growth in the United States. Of course, it’s worth checking it out yourself.
In Himberg’s interview, I personally took note of the following: Question: “So, in other words, the CEO is confident that a new share issue will not be needed before the cash flow has been turned positive?”. Answer: “This is my current view”. I would say that was not expressed very convincingly.
I, for one, caught the remark where it was mentioned that “in Q3 and Q4, we will see how it comes, how that growing Aurora AEYE pot creeps into our income statement.”
In a certain sense, this report felt like the first positive turn in a while, even though the revenue remained weak. Perhaps this will get the snowball rolling in the right direction; next up, we need to see revenue growth and a continued improvement in the underlying gross margin.
The current situation is that an issue is not needed. It is a different matter if 10k cameras are needed from the wall and they would somehow need to be paid for, as it’s not fun to say “we’re sold out” when 5 million is missing from the cash register.
There is an authorization in place for these situations, and it will be used if necessary. Right now, the snowball is rolling in the right direction, so time will tell if this finances itself.
I’ve been wondering, aren’t there other solutions for such short-term financing needs besides a share issue? With those margins, they could afford to pay even high interest rates if necessary, and from the perspective of shareholder value, even a high-interest solution would be more sensible than a share issue.
An equity issue is not the only instrument for short-term financing needs, nor is it often the primary one. Optomed already has several tools available on its balance sheet: financing can be sought against accounts receivable (factoring), and there are over 2 million in the balance sheet, the majority of which could be quickly converted into cash. The company is already using public loan programs like those from Business Finland (517 k€ on the balance sheet).
Banks, in turn, become much more willing to grant loans once earnings turn positive.
I agree on the interest rate issue: with a Q2/2026 gross margin of 71.3% and AEYE-recurring revenue at practically 100% margin, it would easily sustain an 8–12% annual interest rate on a new loan. From a shareholder’s perspective, a small interest burden is clearly more rational than dilution at the current valuation level.
The CEO’s statement “I don’t see a need for new equity issues” is not a binary choice between cash adequacy and an equity issue. In reality, the company has options: the primary path is operational improvement; the buffer path is debt financing. A potential equity issue, only at the 2027–2028 level, would more likely be a growth instrument at a higher share price than emergency financing at the current one.
Personally, based on the numbers and the statements made in the interview, I no longer see a so-called “emergency issue” as very likely and/or necessary. Naturally, the Q3 and Q4 figures are super interesting after the optimistic statements. It must be noted, of course, that the line taken regarding margin levels in the statements was exactly the same in the previous interview; now, additional evidence has been provided, along with even stronger wording in the interview.
According to the company, there is no relevant update regarding China. It didn’t come up in that interview – I should have asked anyway, as many people here were interested in it. However, based on that and the fact that China is practically not mentioned in the Q2 report, I wouldn’t hold my breath regarding a breakthrough there.
The WiserAsian pilot is truly a peculiar case. I appreciate the piloting and the collaboration surrounding this, and the board members are really putting themselves on the line for it. They have found good local partners and literally created a “Chinese version of the US-based AEYE,” which has ended up in a pilot program in Guangdong.
In business terms, there isn’t much to report since it’s not showing up in the earnings figures, but I’m a bit curious to know how much effort has been put into the expenditure side in terms of plane tickets, per diems, hours worked, and equipment delivered. They have certainly invested and put the puck on the stick (provided the opportunity). But pilot programs and sales cycles are 1–3 years (?).
However, the company will provide information in due course. Let them work in peace. The pieces are more than just in place.
Himberg incidentally mentioned that we could have delivered that big order, but the customer wanted it in Q3 and Q4. In other words, cameras were earmarked for working capital, from which they will then be delivered practically without any major costs to the customer. It is also a wonderfully rare situation where, despite falling revenue, the operating leverage is so strong that earnings increase. Oh my, a rare treat for a First North investor who has suffered through a long journey through the wilderness. Every single camera that goes out now goes out with top margins. It’s easy to sit back and enjoy the ride.
Kauppalehti headlines claiming that Optomed’s revenue is falling again show a complete misunderstanding of this case. This operating leverage means that as revenue grows by 45%, EBITDA almost triples.
Of course, it is possible that the camera won’t be in demand in the future, but to my eye, it doesn’t look like that at all.