I agree. I deliberately made the calculations quite conservatively in this pessimistic market situation. The market doesn’t believe the story at all, not even in the continuation of growth at the level seen in 2025. And now I’m talking solely about Aurora AEYE.
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So, the pessimistic estimate is 30 devices/month. That’s one sale a day.
According to normal sales math, that would require about 300 leads per month, which is quite a lot. Of course, many of these are probably gathered hand over fist at trade shows. If there are 15 salespeople in the sales organization, that’s two well-prepared new meetings per day and two sales per month per salesperson.
Not impossible.
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Not impossible at all. Additionally, the existing RR fleet might partially consist of cameras in hospital systems that are currently in pilot testing (perhaps even quite likely), so that number could grow sharply as it scales up.
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Perhaps not pessimistic, but most pessimistic. I recall the CEO previously mentioning larger customers indicating levels of maximum 400 cameras. That would, of course, significantly change the situation immediately if, for example, products were activated in clusters of 30 cameras. This, however, is more of a dream, at least at this stage.
If a sales organization has 15 salespeople, two well-prepared new meetings per day, and two deals per month per salesperson.
Perhaps some reseller can broker a few camera deals, but let’s assume that all of Optomed’s own salespeople genuinely focus on large, carefully selected customers. They map out customer needs and arrange pilots, after which they scale dozens or, in the best case, hundreds of cameras with one framework agreement.
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Yeah… and then there’s the AEYE Health team, who are unlikely to be going around to individual customers, especially now that they have EPIC in their back pocket.
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Looks like Aimil has started promoting Aurora IQ in their communications: https://www.instagram.com/p/DWJRWTxjczf/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link&igsh=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==
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A few cameras might sell well, as India is serious about implementing AI in healthcare. DR screening is also mentioned in this article.
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Aireen applied for Korea distribution and partners at KIMES 2026… hopefully, she caught some fish 
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U.S. AI-driven Diabetic Retinopathy Screening Market Trends 2026-2033 Featuring Profiles of Eyenuk, Digital Diagnostics, AEYE Health, Optomed, IRIS and Other Key Players
”The U.S. AI-driven diabetic retinopathy screening market is poised for notable growth, with projections estimating its value to rise from USD 190.01 million in 2025 to USD 881.74 million by 2033, at an impressive CAGR of 21.18% between 2026 and 2033. The escalating prevalence of diabetes, complemented by favorable reimbursement pathways and limited access to ophthalmologists, fuels this growth.”
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Assuming that the forecasted 21.8% growth materializes for Optomed and the valuation multiple remains the same as it is currently, what would be the share price? Please show the calculations (and fingers).
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Interesting article about one of the largest pharmacy chains in the United States.
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The toboggan run is flat with slight changes from one day to the next. Optomed’s development is quite unbelievable (I must state sarcastically that it almost scares me what will happen if/when Lumo gets FDA approval, will the share price go to zero?)… Has anyone checked the owner lists from Euroclear lately?
Ps. it’s almost as if God is guiding this
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The right question is, why on earth would anyone buy Optomed right now? It’s almost 9 months since information about customer cases and big pharma collaboration was promised, but nothing has been heard. The last actual sales news seems to be from the end of 2024. I previously speculated that the biggest selling pressure would come from positions 11-50 on the ownership list, and unfortunately, there are several million shares there.
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Having followed this forum and the company since the beginning of the year, a few things are starting to puzzle me:
- The company gave a cautious outlook for this year.
- The market considered it and the CEO’s statements somewhat soft.
- Nothing has been heard from the company - neither good nor bad.
- Enthusiasts here are painting pictures of bliss and great business opportunities.
- Is point 1) true?
- How bad is the situation (slope like the share price) really in the company?
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The last time I called Euroclear, I found out that OP and Danske had sold a bit more. The others in the top 10, or for example Proprius, hadn’t made any changes. At the same time, I tried to find out who bought and sold that 43k block, but it didn’t become clear. The call was late last week.
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Well, if growth is strong, then the company doesn’t need to issue an earnings warning in either direction.
So, if we trust the guidance’s accuracy, growth is 5-9%, but the share price is discounted by -40% as if the consulting or software business was the only reason people would have gotten involved in the first place. Write-downs, operational efficiency improvements, and a shutdown of the consulting side?
The hardware side requires growth and persistent, long-term effort. If a camera delivery is always a one-time investment that pays for itself within a couple of years and hundreds of cameras are sold, then I don’t see this becoming a golden egg-laying dividend machine anytime soon.
Currently, the market undervalues this, but the market is also always right. To turn the tide, Q1 needs to present numbers that genuinely show a growing direction.
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Small funds are just selling off the entire industry because Faron betrayed the trust, on behalf of everyone, I assume.
They must sell due to their own rules when stop losses are triggered. I’m also surprised that the company isn’t making any statements on any topic to support the stock price… You’d think they’d be interested, especially if they need self-financing for one reason or another in the near future.
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Which fund has a mandatory stop-loss principle in its rules?
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