If it were already clear that this will become a major business with handheld cameras, an offer would likely be on the table already. In my opinion, the lack of an offer says more about the stage of commercialization than about the valuation. The moment Topcon activates is the same moment they are fully convinced of the breakthrough in handheld technology.
Thank you Due_Diligence and Jorge_B for the good and interesting answers.
This is exactly the core issue that I’ve started to mull over myself, which is why I brought the topic up again. At this stage, hardly anyone questions the handheld technology itself anymore. A large number of studies have been reviewed here where Optomed’s camera has achieved impressive results. Aurora AEYE’s FDA process is behind them, regulation looks favorable, and reimbursement is—at least for now—in order in the US.
So, in practice, the biggest remaining uncertainty is commercialization. It hasn’t progressed very rapidly, but this is precisely the point where a player like Topcon would have a clear advantage. Established channels, customer relationships, and market understanding. They aren’t an outside buyer; they are deep within this ecosystem and likely see very accurately which direction the US market and screening models are headed.
Wouldn’t now be the optimal buying window? Regulatory risk has largely vanished, commercialization is not yet “proven,” and the price hasn’t escaped yet.
If that commercial proof arrives, the situation changes quickly: interest grows, there could be multiple buyers, and the price level rises. At that point, a player like Topcon is no longer buying an “option,” but has to compete for a more mature asset that would fit anyone.
To put it bluntly, the biggest risk for a buyer isn’t necessarily buying too early, but rather that someone else gets there first. Especially when the alternative is to build it themselves (a slow, expensive, and uncertain path).
So, if Topcon didn’t see any near-term potential here at all, it would be a clear red flag for us Optomed shareholders as well. But if they see even a moderate probability of a breakthrough, moving right now could be rational.
And a final note: I don’t particularly hope for a delisting myself, but purely as a strategic scenario, I wouldn’t consider it far-fetched at all at this point.