The travel industry has been hit hard by the coronavirus. Ships are docked in ports as people do not want to travel. Revenues have dried up, but fixed costs are ongoing. Carnival, Norwegian, and Royal Caribbean did not receive support from the United States because they do not pay taxes in America. Will their cash reserves run dry before better times? Carnival has been able to grow its revenue at a good pace for years, and operating profit
That’s some fresh material from the cruise industry.
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Those interested in the industry can share information here and at the same time gain more knowledge about the field.
I bought more this morning, maybe a good thing:
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The Saudis bought Carnival on March 26. The market price at that time would have been 15.05 - 19.04. I sold a day earlier. I took a new small swing trade position today. Carnival is important for the US economy, even if it doesn’t pay taxes there.
Here’s more analysis: https://www.barrons.com/articles/carnival-stock-rallies-after-saudi-stake-disclosure-and-a-zero-sail-liquidity-assessment-51586186393?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo
Here is the 2019 financial statement.
Carnival is the safest option among the three major companies in terms of balance sheet. Indeed, from 2015-2019, the company has managed to make a profit of 3-4 dollars per share. So, if the company manages to survive the crisis and nothing dramatic happens in the industry, the company can be bought cheaply now. However, if the crisis continues well into the autumn, the company could really start to be in trouble. Carnival has arranged share issues in recent weeks and raised hundreds of millions through them.
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Are there any offerings for the Saudis? According to Wells Fargo’s analysis, ships sitting in ports burn $1 billion in cash every month. That’s a big number. Perhaps ports could help with this. In any case, the drying up of cash as the crisis prolongs requires more money, and the Saudis have now opened their coffers for this. They certainly believe in Carnival’s rise. That’s why I changed my mind.
The Saudi investment was so big that it strengthened my own belief that this stock will still rise. Faith and hope are, of course, not a good reason to make investment decisions, but you have to play a little.
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It rose sharply yesterday and now it’s up 19% in pre-market.
Something’s happening to those cruise ships now. A week ago, there was a huge number of them off Miami, some anchored, some adrift… Right now, the number of ships is decreasing rapidly 
. Here’s a map where you can follow how the situation develops… Ah, bad link, it seems to go directly to Emma, which is one of the ships being tracked. But by moving the map to Miami, the cruise ships start appearing before your eyes 
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Where is it cheapest and safest to keep cruisers anchored for half a year?
In the video, the guy sees Carnival’s situation as confident thanks to the Saudis:
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Something’s fishy here My guess is they’re heading to the dry dock for annual maintenance. So the boats are ready to operate again after May Day. Trump will soon blow the whistle to open the cruise season again. 
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In that video, it’s mentioned that Carnival has offered its ships as hospitals wherever they are needed. Of course, maintenance will be done now if necessary.
It’s an interesting situation from an investment perspective. It’s almost certain that the business will recover over time, but cruise ships are likely among the last places to return to normal after the coronavirus. Additionally, many people will be wary of ships for a long time. I somewhat suspect that predictions for the return of ships are still too optimistic. What’s the current general estimate for the timeline?
I’d expect a reality check for quick return hopes and a further stock price collapse before investing.
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Looks like many will be left on the sidelines complaining now Carnival’s financing is now in order and they will most likely get through this crisis. I don’t expect them to reach ATH (All-Time High) levels in a few years, but in the shorter term, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the stock price was already at the previous highs of 18.80 made on March 26th next week. At that time, the company’s outlook was significantly more uncertain than it is now.
Edit: Glad to be along for the ride with 30% of my portfolio weight 
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I’ve personally been stocking up on CCL shares this week, and I’m confident that with the help of the Saudis, etc., the money will last until cruises are running again. The reward awaits…
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Even though The Big Three don’t pay taxes to the US, their employment impact through various tourism industry operators is truly significant, so I guess they “have” to be saved.
I’ve jumped on board with CCL’s cruise in the form of stocks and I definitely plan to hold onto them. Their debt-to-equity ratio is also quite acceptable compared to the other two big ones:
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One perspective for calculating CCL’s stock price estimates for 2021. The guy’s assumption is that cruises will be operating in 2021 and that CCL will achieve a net profit of about 2 billion (in 2019, net profit was 3 billion). He ponders which to invest in: Carnival Cruise Lines or Delta Air. He focuses on the cash and debt situation, plus the return to normal as the coronavirus recedes. If you don’t want to watch the whole 24 minutes, at exactly 20 minutes he calculates the P/E ratio for 2021 CCL’s stock price, on the condition that cruises operate in 2021 such that net profit is the aforementioned 2/3 of 2019’s net profit. He said that if you buy the stock now for 12-13 dollars, and his 2021 P/E estimate comes true, the stock will be 28.90 dollars next year. Not bad, provided those “if” conditions materialize… I don’t know about a bailout, but I’m sure the Saudis will ensure there’s enough money.
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Possibly a few-minute rapid test for coronavirus could speed up the opening of cruise traffic. There’s quite a lot of competition in rapid tests, which will hopefully keep prices low. However, Caribbean cruise prices start from about $400 and up (+ money to be spent on board), so a few tens of dollars per passenger for a rapid test shouldn’t be an obstacle. Testing is of course not possible in restaurants, shopping malls, etc., but I think it would be in ship and air traffic.
I’m definitely on the edge of my seat every day regarding CCL, because I’m heavily invested. I have to constantly follow the news and keep candlestick charts (also RCL, NCLH and S&P500) open on my screen throughout the trading day. There would also be strong pressure for daily trading, as this week we’ve opened about a dollar higher every day, followed by a steep rise and then about a dollar’s decline once a day. The movements are fast, but I could have significantly grown my position if I hadn’t just sat on my hands. I just don’t want to accidentally miss out when I still see potential for even strong daily gains. We’ll see what the coming week brings.
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Henk’s biggest concern regarding CCL, for example, is not so much the debt ratio or survival, but the cost of debt. They are currently paying double-digit interest on financing (11.5% or something like that?), so what is the future regarding free cash flow? I would guess that a similar risk might be hidden in airlines, where returns could remain at a weak level for years, but this is entirely speculation as I haven’t bothered to do the calculations.