In that video, the guy calculated that CCL’s current short-term and long-term debts, and those just taken, would be paid off in 10 years. Of course, this is a purely theoretical matter, as companies are constantly taking out and paying off new and old loans. I do trust their earning capacity, but naturally, that would require cruises to resume, preferably in the latter half of this year.
The picture might be a bit off-topic, but then again, it’s also key to the return of this thread’s industry:
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Early 2021 is a good guess for when cruising will resume. This formula means a full 10-month break for cruise giants. Will their cash reserves last, and how many years will it take to pay off these loans? 10 years is a long time… I also find the estimate that the 2021 net profit would be 66% of the 2019 profit to be very optimistic.
No passenger testing works, as passengers leave the ship multiple times during a cruise.
It’s probably a good idea to keep your finger on the sell button soon.
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The cruise schedule is pretty much dictated by potential medical treatments and vaccines for corona. Testing is not possible for the very reason you mentioned. If and when medical treatments/vaccines become available, those who missed their cruises due to corona will flock to the ships. Anyone can make all kinds of guesses about the 2021 results, as Kevin did. The main thing, however, is that cruises will be operating then so that the company stays afloat. I myself don’t dare to guess any net profits, because I don’t have any data or figures to calculate it with.
I probably won’t be pressing any buttons regarding CCL for a while, but especially not the sell button. However, I believe that my ownership will be profitable in the long run.
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Yeah, I would have bought it for $8 too. Waving from the dock for now. 
https://www.barrons.com/articles/carnival-stock-has-plunged-director-randall-weisenburger-bought-shares-51586444900
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American trader has strong faith in cruise line companies based on technical analysis:
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CCL cruises departing from New York are suspended until the end of 2020. Cruises departing from other locations are suspended until June 27.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3560186-carnival-cancels-north-american-cruises
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In practice, Florida cruises will make the same decisions as New York. People from all over the world mix so well on ships that there can be no other option.
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This is a pretty clear matter in my opinion. We can also think about this through our own behavior or plans, i.e., when the corona situation eases, almost all of us will probably return to our normal daily lives with their associated activities.
In addition, there have been several news reports in the media today from different research groups or pharmaceutical companies, where they are quite sure that a vaccine will be available in the autumn.
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CCL nicely up +8%, now with a suitable amount scratched into the portfolio.
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Once the corona situation eases due to medication or other reasons, there will be a rush for cruises. It’s also great that 75% of those who missed their cruises have not asked for their money back, but have agreed to postpone their cruise. I estimate that CCL’s revenue in 2021 will be almost at the 2019 level, but net profit will be lower for understandable reasons. For 2022, revenue is already predicted to be slightly above the 2019 level. And since new cruise bookings are still coming in (companies have already put up special offer cruises for booking), I think the increase in ship capacity will come from a demand-created need for a good reason.
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However, that article stated that 75% plan to continue cruises as before, and that’s no surprise, as the survey was conducted on CruiseCritics, which has the most fanatical cruise types who travel on ships every year.
The biggest problem is that ships will be the last place to open, even if the entire rest of the economy is open. The timing can only be guessed, not this year at least, unless an effective vaccine comes quickly.
I’m quite skeptical about new bookings. It seems to be largely about current bookings being transferred there because passengers get a good discount from it.
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I wrote incompletely. Another source mentioned that most of those who missed their cruises have not demanded their money back - thanks for the notice anyway.
What you referred to as the most fanatic cruisers is also true, but it is a growing group, has been for years, and certainly will not shrink. These are precisely the core customers that companies need. Conversely: it would be terrible for the companies if these fanatics had responded differently.
However, there are relatively positive expectations for cruises. This year will be lost, but the future is bright and it will start next year at the latest.
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I agree that the entire industry is clearly growing and the dip will be recovered sooner or later. However, I guess that the return will take more time than is currently imagined, and because of this, there is downward pressure on the stock price. Apparently, Carnival can withstand this, but more indebted companies may be in trouble.
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It’s not surprising at all that bookings are increasing for next year, as people are afraid to book for this year, so they’re booking for next year instead. One shouldn’t take these things too positively, however. J&J (Johnson & Johnson) rather optimistically promised 600-900 million vaccine doses for Q1 2021, and then at a rate of a billion per year. However, testing will only begin in the fall. The most important thing would be for cruises to be fully booked and operating at full capacity by the most important season, i.e., summer 2021. Will they have enough money until then? Probably not, but they’ll surely do everything to minimize costs and acquire more money.
Here’s something for the bears to read (don’t get too bullish from the content of this thread):
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You summed up the situation well, and I agree. I found a good article on SeekingAlpha, and if any cruise company can be expected to survive, it’s CCL. Namely, its debt level and other financial situation are much better than its two large competitors.
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Right, so bookings are growing compared to 2019 figures. But yeah, one shouldn’t paint too rosy a picture, of course. The risks are high, and so is the potential reward – basic investing stuff.
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Yes, I noticed it was comparing to 2019. However, I meant that for 2021, we are essentially reserving almost two years’ worth, or 1.5 years (2020+2021). In other words, the reported figures are not directly comparable to 2019.
A recent CNBC interview where Carnival CEO Arnold Donald talks about the situation. Towards the end, he says that the current funding is enough until the end of the year (= worst scenario, meaning no cruises this year), but that a continuation has also been planned if needed.
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