Novo Nordisk - Europe's most valuable company?

Here is a quick read from Salkunrakentaja about Novo Nordisk’s latest news from China. :slight_smile:

Beijing has given the green light to Novo Nordisk’s breakthrough treatment for overweight or obese individuals with at least one weight-related comorbidity.

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Ozempic/Wegovy (semaglutide) is suspected of being linked to a serious eye condition, NAION, which can lead to vision loss.

https://www.iltalehti.fi/terveysuutiset/a/4ad670ba-e0c1-4f0a-8d88-352fe58c1328#Echobox=1720287923

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Linking the study itself here as well:

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamaophthalmology/fullarticle/2820255

Hesari’s article on the topic:

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It is worth calculating the probability of getting NAION even before starting Ozempic. The risk is increased by, among other things, diabetes, overweight and obesity, high blood pressure, and hypercholesterolemia—meaning abnormally high blood lipid levels. Additionally, even very rarely, people who are normal weight and, at a superficial glance, healthy in every way, receive NAION diagnoses in a sufficiently large population group.

If the situation is frightening, whether you are using Ozempic, Wegovy, Rybelsus, or Victoza, you should of course begin by taking steps to modify your own diet.

It is worth checking the list of potassium-rich foods on Fineli.fi—a tax-funded resource created for public health needs—even before you go to the doctor with your graph paper. A doctor will be pleased that you have taken a sufficiently long period of blood pressure measurements and written them down on that graph paper in columns for morning, around 5:00 PM, and before midnight before going to bed, and that you have already started those dietary changes.

One must take the right steps slowly for overweight and obesity, meaning lifestyle changes. If you want to exercise, I recommend water sports so that your joints do not break down. In the food diary, Fineli shows an estimate of daily calorie needs when you honestly enter your age and gender.

You can read advice from weight loss doctors for free online and remember not to lose muscle tissue through rapid weight loss. That makes weight management more difficult.

Even the strictest “fennovegan” (Finnish vegan) accepts eating oat porridge or, for the tougher types, oat bran porridge. There are also ready-made packages available with a mix of both oat flakes and bran. They contain beta-glucan, which lowers LDL levels.

One can grant the oat porridge eater some mercy by adding a small “eye” of their favorite fat spread to the porridge, or if they are a hard-line porridge eater, they can use, for example, Neito oil (Neito-öljy), which is even available with a butter flavor.

It would be good to wean oneself off intoxicants voluntarily if your own vision matters. In Finland, there are as many as 100,000 people unaware of their diabetes who wonder why their vision is deteriorating when their blood pressure is too high.

All in all, the non-medical methods I have presented are inexpensive, and a blood pressure monitor with a cuff will last a lifetime under normal use. Blood pressure monitors are constantly on sale, and the purchase is worth it.

Fortunately, nowadays you can easily update what you eat and drink on Fineli with a smartphone. It is worth at least trying it for fun by creating your own food diary and tracking whether you are getting enough or too much of the right or wrong substances. After all, you might as well use a tax-funded service, even if just for the sake of it.

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A large and interesting company that many people here own, so I’m sharing this Kauppalehti article on Novo Nordisk—a quick two-minute read—even though it likely won’t offer much new information to those following the company closely.

No paywall.

Analyst Hallengreen Laustsen, on the other hand, believes that Novo Nordisk’s position will remain strong in the coming years.

He tells Børsen that he considers the stock attractive from an investor’s perspective right now, but reminds that its value is largely based on future growth expectations—which could weaken as the competitive landscape changes.

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https://www.morningstar.fi/fi/news/250841/tämä-tekee-novo-nordiskin-ja-eli-lillyn-duopolin-haastamisesta-liikalihavuuslääkkeiden-kentällä-poikkeuksellisen-vaikeaa.aspx

Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly’s duopoly and its sustainability in weight-loss drugs was discussed earlier this summer, before Roche’s results were released, in a Morningstar translated article (no paywall).

I haven’t studied the companies and the industry in depth, but isn’t it the case that the industry is a constant race between patent expirations and the development of new drugs, which is largely what this is about? In this race, the companies that generally succeed are those with the greatest resources for research and development, long-term and accumulated expertise, as well as the ability to scale production and efficient sales and distribution channels.

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Ozempic may potentially provide help in the treatment of other diseases in the future.

https://www.hs.fi/tiede/art-2000010573729.html

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Novo Nordisk will release its results as soon as tomorrow, Wednesday, August 7th. Morningstar’s latest article on the company provides a good summary of the market situation and where it stands relative to its competitors. No paywall.

https://www.morningstar.fi/fi/news/252865/tulosraportin-kynnyksellä-pitäisikö-novo-nordiskin-osaketta-ostaa-myydä-vai-pitää.aspx

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Here was a pretty good summary from Ray Myers:

https://x.com/TheRayMyers/status/1821195335349293115

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A Finnish summary of Morningstar’s latest analysis can be found there. :point_down:

https://www.morningstar.fi/fi/news/253006/novo-nordiskin-tulos-wegovy-toimitukset-ja-laihdutuslääkkeiden-pipeline-keskiössä.aspx

Morningstar’s view remains unchanged (“the stock is overvalued”) and, according to it, the entry of competing weight-loss drugs into the market in the coming years threatens to take market share from Novo Nordisk and increases pressure to lower prices.

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An article from Sijoittaja.fi about Denmark’s Orion, which takes just a few minutes to read. :slight_smile:

In 2023, Novo Nordisk’s revenue grew by 31% in Danish kroner and 36% at constant exchange rates to 232.3 billion Danish kroner. Operating profit grew by 37% in Danish kroner and 44% at constant exchange rates (CER) to 102.6 billion Danish kroner.

Regarding the 2024 outlook, revenue growth is expected to be 22–28% at constant exchange rates, and operating profit growth is expected to be 20–28% at constant exchange rates. In the Q2 report, the company adjusted its revenue outlook slightly upwards, but its operating profit outlook slightly downwards.

Analysts expect revenue and operating profit to continue growing by more than 20% in 2025 as well.

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Novo’s CEO Jørgensen is being grilled by the U.S. Senate today regarding the pricing of weight loss drugs in the local market. Would a sugar tax for Americans be a better alternative, though? :smiley:

The share price has dropped nearly -16% in three months; in Ålandsbanken’s morning report, this was already seen as a buying opportunity.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/24/novo-nordisk-ceo-to-testify-at-senate-over-weight-loss-drug-prices.html

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According to the tweet, Novo Nordisk’s stock is on the decline and is starting to look attractive. The tweet suggests that at the current price, it might be sensible to consider opening a small position, or potentially wait for even slightly lower levels.

The tweeter also notes that high-quality companies are rarely cheap, and this company is one of the industry leaders in diabetes and obesity treatments. The company’s growth is strong, particularly due to new innovative drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy.

The company’s market share is strong and its margins are only growing, so the long-term outlook is excellent, if the tweet is to be believed. :slight_smile:

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Here are Jyske’s views and recommendations for a few Danish stocks + Nordea.
Opens without a login:

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In addition to Sifter’s quarterly report video, you can find “text” behind the link that also discusses Novo Nordisk. :slight_smile:

The company is “discussed” under the headings Why did Novo Nordisk decline during the third quarter? and Why do we still believe in Novo as an investment? :slight_smile:

EDIT:

I copied the text here, since the link goes directly to the video and I’m a klutz :smiley:

Why did Novo Nordisk decline during the third quarter?

Three key reasons:

  • US Democrats’ initiatives regarding investigations into pharmaceutical pricing: Bernie Sanders has directly mentioned Ozempic and questioned why Europeans pay about $100 per month for the same drug that Americans pay $1,000 for.

  • Positive research data for competitors’ weight-loss drugs: Competitors’ products received positive publicity, which affected Novo Nordisk’s share price.

  • Inversago Pharma acquisition: Novo acquired Inversago Pharma a year ago for $1.075 billion, but its promising drug, INV-202, did not meet expectations, and the value of the acquisition is now lower.

Why do we still believe in Novo as an investment?

  • Drugs under development: Novo has two interesting drugs in its pipeline. These drugs, CagriSema and Amycretin, perform better than current weight-loss medications. These new drugs have a high probability of reaching the market, and CagriSema in particular could replace the current Semaglutide (Ozempic/Wegovy). Thus, a potential price reduction would not be such a significant risk.

  • Strengthening competitive position: If Novo’s new drugs succeed and receive regulatory approvals, Novo Nordisk’s competitive position will be further strengthened.

  • Demand for weight-loss drugs exceeds supply: Production capacity remains a bottleneck, and volume growth is high.

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Denmark’s Novo is being compared against America’s Lilly.

https://x.com/Quality_stocksA/status/1845482002721419582
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Someone else has also done a comparison here.

https://x.com/jesperkondrup/status/1845571624306684090

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Below is a tweet, and I will summarize some of the content here:

The company has grown into a significant player, particularly in the treatment of diabetes and obesity, where its market position is strong thanks to the drugs Ozempic and Wegovy. The United States accounts for 56.1 percent of its revenue, highlighting its importance to the company.

In 2023, ROE was a staggering 77.4%, which is an impressive figure. Key risks include expiring patents and a high valuation level. The company is investing heavily in research and the future, as over 10 percent of revenue goes toward research and development (R&D). This is how Novo Nordisk aims to ensure its competitive advantage in the future as well.

For those who have been following the company, there is likely nothing particularly new here, but I’m sure various posts about the company are of interest in this quiet thread. :slight_smile:

https://x.com/QCompounding/status/1847971732830798202

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Q3 2024

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Novo Nordisk reported its third-quarter results in line with expectations.

The company’s net profit was 27.3 billion Danish kroner, slightly above the market forecast of 26.95 billion kroner. The sales growth guidance for 2024 was refined and is now expected to be 23–27% instead of the previous 22–28%.

Wegovy sales grew by 79 percent in the third quarter compared to the previous year, and sales of GLP-1 drugs, such as Ozempic, grew by 14 percent. The company is investing in expanding production capacity to meet demand, particularly in the United States.

https://x.com/Quality_stocksA/status/1854066804403892351

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