Nordic’s CMD arrived, and at the same time, the share price made a significant correction of about 20% towards the southeast (heading down). I was wondering about it myself at first. Let’s break it down:
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New strategy under the new CEO. The CEO changed at the beginning of the year when the long-time predecessor retired. The new CEO was an engineer at NS 20 years ago. Since then, he has gained experience elsewhere in the MCU industry and has now returned to NS.
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NS is targeting a 25% EBITA margin by 2028. Similarly, 20+% growth.
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4 business areas, each with targets and responsibility for their performance: BT, Cellular, BT, and others (PMIC). If results aren’t achieved and targets aren’t met, heads will start to roll. This wasn’t said directly but was implied. Especially the WLAN and PMIC sides are under the magnifying glass.
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The market is soft. Especially in Europe. Elsewhere, the market is performing well. Europe’s softness is particularly evident in the industrial segment.
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NS’s core problem with current profitability is that they are unable to scale their costs as the market and volumes decrease. Work has been done to solve this. If volumes were higher, profitability would be too. Overhead is too much. However, when the market recovers, this provides a good ability to meet demand without additional costs.
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The transition to 22nm is a big deal. Both the upcoming 54 series and the new 91 series are technologically a decade ahead of their competitors in power, power consumption, and RF performance.
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nRF54 market plan
Both the H and L series have been sampled with 200 customers. Feedback is reportedly very, very good. Customers are interested in both horizontal and vertical transitions (52 → 54L and 52 → 54H).
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A bit of slow scaling on the cellular side. The new smaller and better price-point 91 series is reportedly very well-liked.
Best in class. On the cellular side, the cloud service business has reportedly gained good momentum. Still small, but the potential is huge.
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71 series WLAN chip coming. Includes something 54-like from the MCU side and a Wi-Fi 6 (WLAN6) capable radio.
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A big surprise whose impact I don’t think should be underestimated: the 53 series has found its way into the Samsung Ring, or more familiarly, Oura’s toughest competitor.
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Market analyses of all customer vectors were credible and looked healthy
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Clear number one in design wins
Technologically, this CMD was quite positive. Why, then, did we go down 20% during the day? At the end of the CMD, there was a Q&A moderated by two analyst representatives. 50+% of all analyst questions were about the 2025 guidance and the fear that one significant healthcare customer might have switched technology. This was asked many times in many different ways. The CEO and CFO denied everything they could and also appealed to the fact that they only provide guidance one quarter ahead. It felt like this was the biggest negative factor. I personally can’t take a stand on this kind of speculation—whether it’s true or not and what the impact is.
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For me, the UWB side of short-range radios was quite unfamiliar. I did some research into both Novelda and UWB technology itself. Here are some observations:
UWB
- ~6-9GHz frequency range depending on the country and standard. In other words, truly high. Compare this to 2.4GHz for BT, for example.
- Correspondingly, the channel bandwidth is very wide, >500MHz. Again, for comparison: BT’s 2MHz and WLAN’s 20MHz (or multiples of 40/80 depending on the standard).
- Tx times are very, very short. They depend on the standard. Thanks to the short duration and wide bandwidth, the power spectral density of a Tx event per Hz remains well below FCC/ETSI requirements. This means the certification process is easy and otherwise significantly less regulated compared to, for example, BT or WLAN.
- The most common applications for UWB are various radars, other types of sensing, and distance measurement based on ToF (Time of Flight). ToF in particular is significantly better to implement with UWB technology than BT, thanks to the higher frequency and short Tx bursts.
- UWB can also be used for communication. Even up to 1Gbps bandwidth. Significantly more than BT’s 1 or 2 Mbps.
- Other “basic” signaling techniques also apply to UWB, such as AoA (Angle of Arrival).
Novelda
Novelda’s portfolio consists entirely of sensor technology products. In contrast, NS’s (Nordic Semiconductor) portfolio has no sensor technology at all. The NS portfolio is specifically focused on communication. The question arises: what are NS’s plans for Novelda? Is NS intending to complement its own offering by adding integrated UWB sensing solutions to its products? Asset tracking is one major existing vertical for NS. In such a case, it would be clear that BT + UWB complement each other. BT carries further, and once the approximate location is obtained, precise positioning is done with UWB. I find it hard to believe they would make this into a separate “companion chip” solution. Historically, that is not like NS.
The other option is that Novelda was acquired for its brain power and IP. Personally, I see it as most likely that NS sees a low-power future where UWB technology complements BT. In this scenario, NS is targeting IEEE 802.15-style data transfer techniques running on top of UWB, and this was an easy way to quickly acquire professionals in the field. And a patent portfolio. Novelda has an academic background, meaning they have developed a lot in-house. I personally see a future where bulk or premium products would have both a BT/WLAN/Cellular radio and a secondary UWB radio, and that there would be a dedicated product series solely for UWB solutions. Specifically as an integrated MCU, not as a companion chip. From Novelda’s perspective, this is also a win. Novelda has a new X7 processor with a UWB radio + MCU. However, NS has been doing ARM MCU + radio integration for twenty years, and through previous acquisitions, they have world-class low-power memory technology in their pocket. For this reason, I think the synergy benefit from Novelda’s perspective is greater than from NS’s.
I believe that over some period of time, NS will also offer sensor technology as a side product. Once the UWB radio is on the chip, it doesn’t require much more for radar/other sensing to be possible.
The UWB market is interesting, and by Googling, it’s clear that Apple’s AirTag and other clones are what people are talking about. On the sensor side, person identification, presence detection in a room, and, for example, a digital twin of a car cabin are also the most popular application areas.
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Acquisition of Novelda cancelled: NewsWeb
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efficiency measures continue, including approximately 8% staff reductions NewsWeb
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NS and eSIM manufacturer Kigen demonstrate their synergies: Massiivisia IoT-verkkoja helpommin
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Nordic posted good Q2/H1 2025 results. Forecasts were met, even though some analyst houses offered downgrades in the spring. Guidance was also satisfactory. Both tier1 and other customers are performing well. The nRF54 series has been well received, and the newest smaller nRF91 is also performing well. YoY, the long range business saw 100% growth and stabilization compared to the previous quarter. Historically, long range development has gone up and down quite rapidly Q2Q. If this now stabilizes and starts a steady ascent, that would be quite amazing.
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Nordic delivered strong results and robust guidance. This was rewarded with a solid gain during the day. Both YoY and compared to Q3, the trends were positive. It seems cellular didn’t soften at all. Similarly, the nRF54 series was said to account for about 15% of short-range sales. It’s on the rise. It was also mentioned that adoption has been slightly faster than expected and the feedback is very good.
In the conference call, I think for the first time it was emphasized how NS sees itself as a full-service IoT solution provider, whereas previously they viewed themselves as a chip manufacturer. Fleet management and other support services generate recurring revenue after the chip sale, which is healthy.
The technical capabilities of the nRF54 chips were also highlighted. In the ultra-low-power segment, it was mentioned that the NPUs in the nRF54 models are an order of magnitude more powerful than the competition, providing a clear technical backbone to lean on. And customers have noticed this as well. NPUs enable a power-efficient way to perform edge computing by significantly reducing the link budget.
Additionally, perhaps NS’s only direct peer, Silicon Labs, was sold to TI. The CEO was asked about this in the conference call. It’s interesting to see if someone comes after NS. At these valuation multiples, I think the price is far too low even if you added a premium similar to the SL offer on top.
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Let the monologue pump continue. NS once again delivered a major beat on both guidance and consensus. Q1 revenue was 192m and EPS was approximately double the consensus. Q2 guidance is also very strong with a 200-220m range.
Long range is growing rapidly QoQ and YoY. And guidance says this will continue, even accelerating. Also on the BT side, demand for nRF54 is strong.
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Investor who spied Nvidia AI thesis in '16 has a new conviction call | Seeking Alpha
Greetings list. It was nice to find a thread where Nordic Semi’s business is broken down in Finnish.
Josh Wolfe, the “guru” who predicted Nvidia’s AI rise back in 2016, is putting Nordic Semiconductor in the top spot in a portfolio built around the “lifecording” theme.
What is lifecording? Nothing yet, but Wolfe predicts that one upcoming megatrend will be the collection and (AI) analysis of all possible “data generated by living.” In this, Nordic’s BT radios could be a strong asset. We’ll see.
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Good article find, I hadn’t come across that one myself. I immediately connected the dots between this article and Memfault, which NS (Nordic Semiconductor) acquired a few years back. Memfault’s core is IoT (specifically cellular IoT) fleet management. Memfault also scales on the BT side through various gateways, but the most obvious benefit is likely found on the cellular side. By purchasing Memfault, NS gained a fantastic vertically integrated after-sales SaaS product. In NS’s reports, Memfault’s figures can be found under “Long range.” However, silicon sales and after-sales are not broken down separately.
Insofar as the nRF91 and cellular IoT in general gain significant momentum, we have a real diamond in the rough here.
A few final words at the end. The AI race between China and the West is interesting to follow. A while ago, I read an article comparing how application areas in the West are primarily generic via LLM models. In China, by contrast, there is a significant difference in how AI is applied. In China, it is much more common for AI applications to be very specific, e.g., a hospital assistant for nursing staff, etc. Continuing from there, the article added that for AI to become significantly useful, AI’s labor contribution must move from the bit world to the real world. Musk’s Tesla humanoid project is probably the most visible example of this. AI needs a body and a body needs a brain. When artificial intelligence is moved to the interface of the bit and physical world, we arrive at a technologically interesting question: What is the architecture of AI computing? Large models locally consume a lot of power, which can be very difficult in a limited form factor. Data transfer and computing in the cloud, in turn, increase latency and require a significant link budget. In a hybrid model, edge computing and cloud computing are combined. MCU-based pseudo-real-time NPU accelerated computing could be a big deal in the future. And lo and behold, market-leading hardware can be found in the NS portfolio. And as a bonus, BT or cellular radio.
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Market rumors suggest that Silicon Labs, recently acquired by TI, might be capturing a percentage of Nordic Semiconductor’s (NS) Dexcom account volumes: https://www.finansavisen.no/teknologi/2026/05/23/8353510/analytiker-om-kjendisaksje-kan-miste-store-inntekter-varsler-kursfall?zephr_sso_ott=eeGzlN. The article explains how Dexcom’s new G7 CGM device might utilize a multi-path chip vendor strategy, where the product is manufactured using two different chips. Dexcom represents about 10% of NS’s total customer accounts. Rumors have been circulating since 2023. Exactly how much of the Dexcom pie is at risk remains entirely speculative. Dexcom is clearly using this to pressure NS for better pricing.
On a more positive and speculative note: Oura. Media reports suggest that Oura’s 5th gen ring is just around the corner. Oura’s 3rd and 4th gen devices have used Infineon’s PSoC 6. By modern standards, this chip is quite archaic, and the nRF54L series outperforms it easily. An nRF54 paired with an NS PMIC (Power Management IC) would be a very attractive package for the ring’s form factor. If the new Oura contains something other than a PSoC chip, and if that happens to be an nRF54, it would be a big deal for NS. We’ll have to wait for press releases or X-ray images/teardowns.
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NS announces that Christer Roth will start immediately in the role of “Executive Vice President, Strategy and Corporate Development,” effectively acting as the M&A Director. Previously, NS has acquired smaller, technologically vertically integrating companies without such a specific role in place. Earlier this year, TI acquired SilicoLabs. One wonders if a larger acquisition by NS is now in the works, or if NS management has received feelers regarding a potential buyout from the stock exchange. We shall see what happens.
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