Isn’t he already a fifty-year-old guy whose world championship was 20 years ago or something?\nOn the other hand, buyers of new cars and those buying the car’s first set of winter tires are probably also of that age, I guess(?)
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Here are Rauli’s comprehensive comments on the performance and forecasts of Tyres in different regions.
Our forecasts for Nokian Tyres are based on the forecasts for different segments in the reports. In this comment, we also elaborate on revenue development and forecasts for geographical regions and compare them to the company’s 2 billion euro revenue target.
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Recently, there have been articles stating that Nokian Tyres has sufficient production capacity, but the problem might be that the entire production cannot be sold. I wondered where to get data on tire sales volumes, and it occurred to me to examine Google search keyword trends. The service can be found by searching for “Google Trends”. Keywords are indexed, and 100 means the most searches. Absolute numbers cannot be determined from this. Also, how Google categorizes product groups is a bit unclear, and it’s worth noting that many people use VPN services, which likely distorts these statistics somewhat.
I used various Nokian Tyres products as keywords, and at least visually, the situation in the United States appears better than last year. Of course, it’s not certain that search volumes correlate with sales volumes; at least for the Nordic countries, this didn’t seem to be the case when I compared it to the chart in Rauli’s report on revenue development in different geographical areas. This can be explained by Nokian Tyres’ established market position in the Nordic countries. In contrast, in the United States, Nokian Tyres is relatively unknown, and an increase in search volumes can be interpreted as a sign of increased interest in the brand and potential purchase intentions. If this is the case, then it is, of course, a positive thing, and it would reinforce the idea that expectations for sales development in the United States are not entirely unfounded.
For the Nordic countries, search volumes for the keywords “Hakkapeliitta 10” and “Hakkapeliitta R5” appear to be roughly at the same level as in previous years. It’s interesting how the keyword “Hakkapeliitta 10” is concentrated in the northern parts of all Nordic countries, while in the south, searches lean more towards the R5 series. This is logical in itself, but at first glance, I would have thought there wouldn’t be much internal variation in the proportions of friction tires and studded tires. Of course, this doesn’t tell us how it actually correlates with the tires on cars.
Google Trends data seems confusing to me in some parts, and I don’t know how much weight can be given to it. Everyone should draw their own conclusions.
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Before someone wonders why it’s rising today…
Danske Bank Upgrades Nokian Tyres to Buy (Sell), Target Price Set at 10 Euros - BN
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Do the Pasis have Nokian Tyres?
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Grok: “Patria’s armored vehicles, especially newer models such as the Patria 6x6 (also in the CAVS project), use Nokia Tyres (Nokian Renkaat).
Several reliable Finnish sources (such as Iltalehti and Tekniikka&Talous) directly mention that in Patria’s vehicles, the rims come from Hutchinson and the tires (black rubber) from the company Nokia Tyres (Nokian Renkaat). This is emphasized in the context of cost-effectiveness and the domestic supply chain.
In older models (such as the XA-series Pasi), the tire manufacturer is not as clearly documented in public sources, but in newer production, Nokia Tyres (Nokian Renkaat) is a clear choice. Patria’s official pages or technical specs do not always specify the tire manufacturer, but journalistic reports from vehicle presentations confirm this.”
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Gemini3: “The tire used in Patria 6x6 vehicles is the Nokian Tyres MPT Agile 2.
It is a specialty tire designed specifically for military and off-road trucks, developed in collaboration with the Finnish Defence Forces.
Here are the tire’s key features in Patria 6x6 use:
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Developed for northern conditions: The tire is designed to perform not only in mud and rocky terrain but also on snow and ice. Since the Patria 6x6 was originally designed for the needs of Finland and Latvia (CAVS project), winter grip is a critical feature.
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Collaboration with the Defence Forces: The tire was released around the same time as the development of the Patria 6x6 vehicle (approx. 2018). It is the successor to the previous MPT Agile model, and its development emphasized security of supply and compatibility with the Defence Forces’ equipment.
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Run-flat capability: In military use, tires are often equipped with so-called run-flat inserts (e.g., Hutchinson), which allow driving to continue even if the tire is damaged or hit by bullets/shrapnel.
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Symmetrical pattern: The tire’s tread pattern is symmetrical, meaning it works equally well regardless of the direction of rotation. This facilitates maintenance and tire installation in field conditions.”
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Although the previous respondents spent 30 seconds asking an AI about the matter and copy-pasted the answer without much thought, it may be that the 6x6 uses Nokian Tyres, or it may not.
In the Iltalehti news article that the other AI refers to, Nokian Tyres are mentioned:
Patria’s vehicles aim for cost-efficiency. The rims come from Hutchinson, and the black rubber is provided by Nokian Tyres.
But the same article also says:
For the sake of operational reliability, local manufacturing is preferred. Production must continue to roll even in a potential crisis situation.
Most of the 6x6 vehicles ordered by Germany are manufactured in Germany. So it is very possible that they use Continental or Michelin tires, which are more local than those coming from Finland.
And at least in some of the 6x6 press photos, Michelin tires are visible.
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I wouldn’t celebrate that order too much. Out of a couple of billion, the share of tires is small, and let’s say the impact on Nokian Tyres’ result is small, especially if the vehicles in question are equipped with, for example, Michelin tires 
I wonder how many sets of tires are sold for one vehicle? If one tire leaves a thousand in pure profit, then for example 5,000 tires makes 5 million.
Referring to the below, 5 million is probably a bit on the high side for the bottom line, 2-3 million is likely closer, and that is spread over a few years, so one won’t be living like royalty on this money yet. It does, however, have an effect in helping prevent the company from falling into a complete crisis.
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I looked online and the retail price for something like that is about €2,500.
Source: https://www.rengas-online.com/rshop/Renkaat/Nokian/MPT-Agile-2/14-00-R20-164G-TL/R-453010
If the vehicles are built in Finland and those are the original equipment tires, and assuming Nokian Tyres gets, say, €2,200/tire in revenue, then for 876 vehicles with 5,256 tires, it amounts to approx. 11.5 million euros. I don’t know what the profit margin is for heavy tires, but it’s sure to leave something for the bottom line.
And even if the Germans install Michelins, Pirellis, or Linglongs on them in the future, it doesn’t matter. I wonder if the deal required that the original equipment tires must be something other than Nokian?
I see a very good probability here that Nokian has also received an order from this.
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Rauli has written a new report on Tyres. 
We believe the mild early winter will weigh on Nokian Tyres’ Q4 performance, and the market outlook is not very strong for next year either. In our view, there is still potential for significant earnings improvement in the coming years. However, the stock is already pricing this in sufficiently, and thus we believe the risk-reward ratio remains lackluster. We reiterate our reduce recommendation and target price of EUR 8.25.
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Mild weather specifically increases winter tire wear since no one is driving on summer tires anymore.
Secondly, the slipperiest conditions are exactly around the zero-degree mark, which is the most challenging condition for friction tires. In severe frost, grip is at its best.
In Finland, winter tires are mandatory starting from November.
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Most of the vehicles will be built in Germany.
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Here is a reminder regarding the defense sector discussion about what the company said in the spring about its current significance. Of course, growth is certainly being sought and will be achieved. I think the essential points about that one order were already covered above, i.e., they are produced partly (or even mainly?) outside of Finland, and as a single order spread over several years, it is by no means game-changing for the company. It’s good if more is gained from there, and we do indeed have growth in revenue for Heavy Tyres and even substantial growth in earnings for 2027-28. Heavy Tyres are not broken down by segment, and therefore there is no forecast based on that either.
However, regarding the company’s expected earnings level and thus the stock, I would argue that the development of passenger car tyres largely sets the pace.
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I agree regarding consumption, specifically in the Vianor region. There is no winter tire mandate in Central Europe, so this is reflected as a negative factor there.
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I was reflecting on the year 2025 and my own thoughts on how NR has ‘evolved’:
- Paolo’s first year. I’m looking forward to the first annual report with interest
- Romanian and US factories in production
- Slimming down middle management in the organization
- Trimming the sales organization
- Conditional layoffs for 2026 if sales don’t pick up full steam
- Kimi as brand ambassador
Quite a set for the year 2025.
Oh and, the average price of my own stock bundle is 6.02. Right now +52.66%. Not bad either 
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To clarify, there isn’t actually a fixed-period winter tire mandate anymore; instead, the current wording states that winter tires must be used between November 1st and March 31st if weather conditions require it. This is a rather loose phrasing that leaves the responsibility to the driver themselves. Someone might interpret this to mean that winter tires aren’t mandatory at all, and indeed, in the Helsinki metropolitan area, there have already been a couple of winters where winter tires weren’t actually needed for the entire winter.
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Your world is small if you don’t leave Helsinki all winter.
In my neck of the woods, studded tires were already rattling under cars at work back in October.
We’ve been wearing down winter tires for a couple of months already.
The climate hasn’t warmed up one bit. I remember “black” Christmases from before… Then I predict that in January it’ll be freezing and there will be snow across the whole country, just like before.
The company’s turnaround seems to be progressing all the time… Look at the P/B = still very undervalued. I see the share price racing toward double digits instead of eight pretty soon.
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Same thing in Germany. If there is snow/ice and you have an accident, the insurance company won’t cover it. All-season tires are a sensible direction for Nokian Tyres, considering the Central European markets.
I don’t own the stock, even though I like the company. It’s not a well-known brand in Germany. The partnership with Kimi is a good start, but I still doubt whether all the tires from the Romanian factory will sell—and if so, at what margin. That is, once the factory is running at full capacity.
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