You can call it whatever you want, but this will be a lottery win in any case, when talking about a significant improvement in market competitiveness.
I wouldn’t be too worried about consumer confidence, because car tires are a necessity that must be replaced when the previous ones have reached the end of their life. The price of cheap tires will rise significantly, and Nokian Tyres, as a mid-range tire, will immediately benefit from this development. The Canadian market is an insignificant lilliput compared to the United States, and in the future, it is likely that sales in the main market will grow so much that the entire factory capacity can be sold to the US market if desired. In addition, all winter tires sold to Canada have so far been made in Finland, meaning any potential Canadian counter-tariffs would apply to the North American all-season range, which is not made outside the US. There is no information yet about counter-duties, but I would consider Canada’s comprehensive or car tire-specific tariffs quite unlikely.
And as for OP’s analyst views, I, for one, trust Mr. Market more, who states today that, especially in car tire manufacturing, factory capacity in the United States will significantly increase the manufacturer’s profitability.