Nokia as an investment (Part 4)

Yep, exactly like that for stocks. Derivatives, on the other hand, don’t like sharp declines.

Anyway, if a correction occurs, it will likely affect the entire sector.

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Exactly. During the wild rally, I swapped some of my Bull 4x for shares yesterday and the day before; I’ll sell them off if there’s a big drop and build the Bull position back up. It grew too large and I obviously sold too cheap considering next week :rofl: but for once, the profits are secured.

€2-4 in, €12-16 out :partying_face:

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Nokia Stock

10.99 EUR

0.34 EUR

Time 22:59:51

3.19 %

Date 30.04.26

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You got a great return :ok_hand: I have a fairly decent amount of X3 myself. I’ve been sitting on them for 5-6 years, if I remember correctly… could that be a world record :grinning_face_with_smiling_eyes:

And I’m actually thinking about swapping them for shares myself. Then again, greed makes me wonder if I should hold on for a bit longer..:slight_smile: Fortunately, I also have a larger amount of shares to cushion the situation.

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I came out of curiosity to see what Inderes thinks about Nokia, especially since the hype is just beginning and US retail is slowly noticing the company. A €6 target price and a sell recommendation is pretty ridiculous. For the next couple of years AT LEAST, people will price Nokia as a future data infrastructure play, and that re-rating is only just beginning. They’ll be in a hurry to keep issuing sell recommendations even at €20.

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In my opinion, on the other hand, it is quite ridiculous to fixate on target prices and recommendations while ignoring the analyses that the recommendation is based on.

It is also quite welcome that analysts do not merely chase the share price with their target prices, but instead evaluate the company based on what the valuation looks like according to their scenario.

This is not a statement on whether Nokia is cheap or expensive.

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Yes, I understand that as well. Personally, I just think it might be refreshing and show true expertise if we dared to look beyond the P/E ratio in the midst of major change.

If the H1 commentary is on point, then in a few years 2x.xx could be the future. Whoever believes in it is buying like crazy right now. However, everyone looks at their own investment strategy and considers when to buy and when to sell.

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And off we go again on the NYSE, apparently. Quite unbelievable, somehow it doesn’t even feel real :slight_smile:

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Optical and AI-RAN are all well and good, but just wait until 6G sensing pushes through from the defense side. When the network handles things like drone detection, armies will be clamoring to set up their own networks.

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I wonder if there are more open shorts below the reporting threshold… it could explain some of the rise.

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I was just reading the latest issue of the Finnish Shareholders Federation’s Viisas Raha (Wise Money) magazine. In the magazine’s investor list, 146 Finnish stocks have been ranked, and Nokia has slumped to the third-to-last spot on the list.

Hopefully, they don’t read that magazine in the United States! Regarding the stock’s valuation, it is certainly an advantage that it is also traded across the Atlantic. The magazine also featured a somewhat amusing snippet where a member of the Espoo–Kauniainen Shareholders association mentioned being on the sell side of Nokia and the buy side of Valmet. Their reasoning was blunt: “The strong bargaining power of Nokia’s customers weakens results and has partially pushed the company into the position of a contract manufacturer.”

A very happy and peaceful May Day to everyone!

PS. Nokia’s share price in the US is currently €11.584.

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A rather strange comment considering that in the AI boom, vendors’ capacity is largely fully booked and Nokia is also accelerating its investments for this reason.

But let the cautious Finns sell; the Americans will surely buy and drive the share price to the level they want.

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When a tsunami comes, it pushes everyone in the same direction and even at a speed that isn’t justified for everyone? No. Only those who can float are moved in the same direction by the tsunami. Others sink into the mud.

Juurikki has made such wrong predictions before that they shouldn’t be taken seriously. But now summer has started, and the global, major crash leading to its economic impossibility will only arrive later in the autumn, Juurikki estimates. Let’s enjoy this hot summer -39 without worry, without any unpleasant reasoning. Don’t worry, be happy now.

Ps. Juurikki also started trimming Nokia holdings, but it’s due to a pre-locked strategy. So, not their own decision, not their own responsibility?

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I’m posting this here again because I believe most of you will be interested. Here are some brand-new calls; they are significant in size, and positions worth several millions have been taken. There are so many of these coming in and some are additions, so I won’t bother posting them all.

The stock is currently +6.86% and $13.80 on the NYSE. Hopefully, not all Finns sell their Nokia shares too early just to “break even” and blindly trust the estimates of bearish analysts (who might also be right)…

I really don’t know where the peak is, and a few puts showed up as well, but Americans still have significant interest in NOK calls. As I understand it, multiple growth is being promised for optical networks for the end of the year/coming years, and almost the entire optical/photonics sector is in a vertical climb. In my own opinion, the growth will last for years and is being front-run with great force.

The $17-20 calls are for June–September 2026. Congratulations to shareholders on the rise so far!

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Nokia will really have to start scraping together some serious results if people are willing to pay €100bn for a company currently churning out €1.5bn :grinning_face:

Out of curiosity, what is your investment horizon with Nokia? Now that the share price is frontrunning the valuation by at least 5-7 years. How long do you expect valuation multiples to stretch before they start to normalize?

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I only have LEAP calls for 2028. I believe that by then we will be much wiser about whether Nokia’s moat deserves a significant premium or if it returns to historical levels.

An interesting claim, you must know quite precisely what Nokia’s earnings will be for the next few years?

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That can already be called truly long-term investing; a generation or two will have passed before realization.