Does anyone here dare to speculate more boldly than I on the question from the Kauppalehti forum regarding Nokia’s upside potential?
Lumentum, Ondas and Applied Optoelectronics rallied over 1,000% in 12 months. Two report earnings this week. Wall Street is split.
www.benzinga.com Do you see the same potential in Nokia as, for example, in the companies mentioned in this article? Growth, of course, won’t be as massive given the impact of the company’s size/headcount… otherwise, those companies have faced the same analyst pricing issues that Nokia is currently experiencing.
Also, how much do you think would be possible…
I usually compare it to its optical competitor Ciena, which was technologically ahead of Nokia and the first to benefit from this cycle. Ciena has risen about 670%, which illustrates how the markets have started to price optical network providers as a critical bottleneck for AI infrastructure.
Nokia is now catching up technologically and also has vertical integration as a trump card: its own component production using InP technology, a new San José factory that increases capacity up to 20-fold, and router integration. Lumentum, on the other hand, as a component manufacturer, has benefited from massive demand, and the CEO has publicly stated that the company has sold out its production capacity until the end of 2028.
Nokia already has two order-generating AI businesses, namely optical networks and IP networks, plus a third wildcard: AI-RAN for radio networks based on the Nvidia collaboration. Assessing the upside potential is guesswork, but the benchmarks are available.