8.3.2026 Nordean analyysiä
NOKIA
Investment case
We argue that the AI & Cloud-driven 2025-27 top-line turnaround and margin support
from cost savings (including the targeted EUR 200m in Infinera synergies) and mix
improvement should bolster confidence in Nokia’s long-term earnings outlook, thus
fuelling an investor perception change and a continued rerating of the stock.
Main risks
Key downside risks: Weaker-than-expected telecom operator and hyperscaler capex;
market share losses and competitive pressure; a weakening of cash generation and
the net cash position; component shortages; macroeconomic and geopolitical
uncertainty; cost inflation; FX; and patent licensing renewals.
Estimate and valuation changes
Following Mobile World Congress (MWC) 2026, other recent datapoints (e.g.
hyperscaler capex guidance, results by Ciena, Cisco and Adtran) and favourable FX
movements, we lift 2027E-28E adjusted EBIT by 3% (now 1-5% above Infront
consensus for 2026E-28E). We reiterate Buy and lift our SOTP-based target price to
EUR7.2 (6.4) as a result of estimate upgrades and a higher multiple for Optical and IP Networks due to peer rerating.
- In terms of triggers, we believe the upcoming NVIDIA GTC (16-19 March) and OFC (15-19 March) events could potentially offer new
product, deal or partnership announcements for Nokia’s data centre offering.