The Dell’Oro Group tracks the telecom market using a legacy, hardware-centric classification system. They measure copper, steel, basebands, and antennas by volume. Traditional “RAN” is not “AI-RAN”, and looking too deeply into those specific backward-looking reports will give you a completely skewed view of Nokia’s future valuation.
It does however show overall revenues are being driven largely by cloud providers and hyperscalers investing in high-margin infrastructure like optical transport and high-end routing. This underlying data reflects a broader shift toward software-defined compute platforms and AI-driven networking that aligns with Nokia’s strategic pivot.
I’m following it through a different lense…
When Nokia’s current global pilots (with stc, A1, T-Mobile, etc.) inevitably convert into widespread commercial contracts, the revenue won’t just come out of standard, stagnant carrier capex budgets. It will pull from entirely different corporate and state wallets. Obviously this is entirely down to my own interpretation of what I see unfolding, so like I have before on here stated, please feel free to comment.
By the way, I thought in the CNBC interview with Hotard yesterday, he sounded the most bullish I’ve ever heard him… he basically put Nokia right slap bang in the middle of the lucrative phase of the supercycle! What impressions and vibes did you all get? I mean, I’ll admit, I am sometimes far too forward looking for my own good!