Ciena +114% over the last 6 months
Nokia +40% over the last 6 months
Nokia has dropped 32% in 1 month and Ciena 25.5%. Ciena is apparently on more solid ground, and in Nokia’s case, Ericsson’s poor results are also being priced in. It seems we managed to catch the full extent of the panic, even though the real hype prices of €20+ never materialized. ![]()
So, I somehow believed that Nokia would drop less than its peers when calculated in parts, but perhaps mobile really is being taken into account additionally, as would be logical. Ericsson has come down 4% over the last 6 months. Somehow, the numbers just don’t add up.
It still doesn’t bother me. One would just think that robots would make price fluctuations more even, at least when viewed over the medium term. Furthermore, the stock price increase of a good challenger should be sharper than that of the leader if there is market share to be captured and the gap isn’t wide. Which I understand to be the case in Nokia’s equation.
I still remember that a 5 billion operating profit could justify 20e/share figures. How quickly would that happen if Nokia is kicking its chip development team out of mobile and replacing them with Nvidia, wired is growing at 15-20%/year, and someone from the defense side pulls a rabbit out of a hat with a major NATO contract? Both margins and revenue will grow in the coming years, even if the AI sector does a “Finnish housing market.” Maybe 2031-2032?