Nokia as an investment (Part 4)

[Lexus]

This is how I wrote, for example, at the beginning of June. And the share price is now right there.

@Lexus

As I see the situation myself, I think a price level of 8-10 euros is justified by the 2028 earnings.

@Lexus

I personally expect that in the current economic environment, Nokia is capable of an operating profit of about 4 billion (i.e., in 2028).

@Lexus

I still agree that Nokia is in better shape than it has almost ever been. However, it is already being priced in a very fair way.

And this is what I wrote, for instance, in May.

@Lexus

I remain very positive about Nokia, but with current pricing, you cannot turn a blind eye to the fact that there are also other scenarios for the future besides the overly positive ones. The forum is now chasing those. It is therefore entirely possible that 30-50% will be temporarily wiped off the price. But for a long-term investor, the pieces are still in a very good position, though those risk and threat scenarios should still be monitored. If the medium-term potential is around 12 euros, the long-term potential is at least double that level.

@L_Dabio In my opinion, my views and objectivity are fully in line with how I have written previously, regardless of how large the position size is at any given time.

Guiding principle: be critical when the share price runs upwards, and less so when the price has fallen.

Edit: No worries @L_Dabio, I didn’t take it badly, even though I certainly wrote in a defensive style. I would like to add to my previous messages that I still have significant concerns regarding the sustainability of data center construction. I fear a money problem, or more precisely, I suspect that hyperscalers will have to scale back their investments more substantially. I hope I’m wrong, but in any case, Nokia’s share price is starting to be at a level where I think this risk is worth taking.

That is why I significantly reduced my use of the forum, as I couldn’t really read it anymore; I felt that along with Nokia’s share price level, (sane) criticality disappeared from the analyses. It is a different matter to think about the sensibility of an investment whether its multiplier is, for example, 20x or 40x.