I disagree with this. In my opinion, the Q1 report changed the investment thesis more than many might remember in hindsight. In the report, we saw, among other things, AI & Cloud orders rise to one billion euros in a single quarter, an increase in the NI (Network Infrastructure) addressable market growth forecast from 6–8 percent to 12–14 percent, an increase in the AI & Cloud addressable market CAGR estimate from 16 percent to 27 percent, as well as the news that additional investments are being made in the San José InP (Indium Phosphide) fab due to increased demand. At the same time, Hotard noted that lead times for optical products are typically 12–18 months, which also improved visibility into 2027.
When commenting on the report, I concluded my post as follows:
Whether these changes justify the sharp rise in target prices is, of course, a different discussion. But I personally wouldn’t say that the fundamentals didn’t change “at all.” In my opinion, Q1 was the very quarter where the AI story turned into more measurable business than before. It took some time for analysts to digest the information received in the latter half of April. The variance in target prices simply shows that analysts emphasize different things and different time horizons in their analyses.