That’s right, the agreement is still in preparation and is intended to be signed by the end of this year. It’s quite possible that not much will be communicated outwardly, and we will instead see the realization in the earnings reports.
Sinaptica’s product could potentially be on the market around 2029–2031, so there won’t be any quick order backlog coming from there if any investor is in a hurry. After the 6-month readout of the first 48 patients according to that presentation, we will know more about this.
So, Mariash provided one revenue model based on a single device and 40 patients. For Nexstim, one can start building some preliminary tables based on that, e.g., regarding the number of dementia patients in Finland (from the Brain Foundation (Aivosäätiö) website):
- According to the Current Care Guidelines (Käypä hoito -suositukset), there are over 150,000 people in Finland diagnosed with a progressive memory disease, and approximately 23,000 people receive a new diagnosis each year.
- Alzheimer’s disease is by far the most common form of dementia, accounting for about 60–70% of all cases.
- A significant increase in these numbers is expected by as early as 2030.
Of course, not everyone will come under the scope of treatment (if such a treatment by Sinaptica is ever approved), but the potential in terms of device sales is enormous.