Here is Lucas’s company report on Metacon following the release of the Q4 results.
Metacon’s Q4 figures significantly exceeded our expectations, and the quarter became the strongest in the company’s history. However, the company has not announced new orders since September 2025, and we had expected another major order by this time. As we consider order intake to be the most important driver for revenue visibility, we have taken a more cautious view of our near-term forecasts. Despite these forecast cuts, we believe the current valuation offers an attractive risk-reward ratio. As a result, we upgrade our recommendation to Buy (prev. Accumulate), but lower our target price to SEK 0.40 per share (prev. SEK 0.60) mainly due to the lower forecasts.
Here are Lucas’s comments regarding the small additional order Metacon received from Motor Oil.
Metacon announced an additional agreement with Motor Oil for the delivery of an oxygen purification system worth approximately 10.4 MSEK (0.98 MEUR). We consider the order a positive signal, as it demonstrates Metacon’s ability to generate additional sales from its existing projects. Although the value of the agreement is small, it supports our current forecasts, but does not cause changes to our estimates or recommendation.
Here are Lucas’s comments on the “milestone payment” received by Metacon
Metacon announced on Friday that it has received a 2.6 MEUR (approx. 28 MSEK) milestone payment from Motor Oil Hellas for the ongoing 50 MW electrolysis project in Greece. While the payment supports short-term liquidity, it was already factored into our cash sufficiency assumptions. Therefore, it does not change our forecasts, but it reinforces our positive view of the company’s ability to execute projects.
Lucas’s comments on how Metacon’s subsidiary Botnia Hydrogen has received a 10 million krona final payment from the Klimatklivet support program
Metacon announced on Monday that its majority-owned subsidiary Botnia Hydrogen AB has received a decision regarding the final payment of SEK 10 million from the Klimatklivet investment support program. Although the amount is relatively small compared to the company’s larger electrolysis order backlog, we consider the news positive as it clears outstanding receivables and provides additional support to Metacon’s liquidity. The announcement does not lead to changes in our forecasts or recommendation.
Here are Lucas’s pre-game thoughts, as Metacon reports its Q1 results this Thursday.
We expect the report to show continued strong year-on-year revenue growth as the company executes its electrolysis project backlog, although we expect the result to remain negative. Our primary focus is on the company’s order intake, as we believe it is a critical driver for future revenue visibility, as well as the progress of ongoing projects in Greece and Romania.
Lucas Mattsson has authored a company report on Metacon following Q1.
In our view, Metacon started the year strongly, driven by increased execution of the order backlog and an improved operating loss. While we consider these developments clear positives in Q1, we continue to place significant weight on order intake, as a steady flow of new contracts is essential for the company to achieve self-sustaining growth. Although the company provided better visibility into its sales pipeline in connection with the Q1 report, indicating that activity levels remain strong, we have yet to see these discussions convert into concrete orders. As a result, we believe forecast risk remains elevated, and we have therefore taken a more cautious view of our near-term forecasts. However, this has only a minor impact on our long-term forecasts, and we are therefore maintaining our target price of SEK 0.40 per share. Due to the recent share price increase, we are lowering our recommendation to accumulate (prev. buy). Overall, we still see an attractive risk-reward ratio at current valuation levels, and expected returns exceed our cost of equity.
Lucas has updated the Metacon research report following the latest news
In our view, the recently announced capital raise reduces financial risks and allows the company to execute its order backlog and help convert part of its sales pipeline, at least in the short term. Due to the overall structure of the offering, we expect it to be successful. With short-term financing soon secured, Metacon can once again focus on executing its commercialization plans. After updating our valuation assuming the rights issue is fully subscribed, we reiterate our Accumulate recommendation but lower our target price to SEK 0.23 per share (prev. SEK 0.40 per share), primarily due to a higher-than-expected dilution effect.
Lucas has provided his comments on how Metacon has received a 1.2 million EUR customer payment from Motor Oil, and additionally, how 0.99 million EUR in restricted bank funds have been released, strengthening the company’s liquidity.
Here are Lucas’s comments regarding the recent press release.
Metacon announced on Thursday that it has been granted a subsidy of up to SEK 111 million from Klimatklivet for the construction of a 10 MW electrolysis plant in Uppsala. In our view, the project strengthens the long-term investment case, as a concrete, full-scale reference plant operating under real market conditions acts as an effective sales catalyst in the electrolyzer business, while the favorable financing structure keeps Metacon’s capital commitment manageable. However, it does not lead to immediate changes in our short-term revenue or earnings forecasts, as commissioning is expected to take place in 2029. Furthermore, our current medium- and long-term forecasts already include significant earnings growth, and we therefore believe this announcement supports our existing estimates.
Here are the preview comments from Lucas ahead of Metacon’s Q2 results, which will be released next Wednesday
We expect the company to report continued strong year-on-year revenue growth, driven by the execution of its electrolysis project order backlog, while we anticipate the result to remain negative due to ongoing commercial scaling. We are focusing on the company’s order intake and its comments on the sales pipeline, which are crucial for visibility on future revenue.
Here is the company report from Lucas following Metacon’s Q2 results
Although Metacon continued to execute on its order backlog in its Q2 report, we believe the key takeaways were the weak order intake and management’s comments on the slow development of the market. With the order backlog now shrinking, the short-term buffer recently secured through the rights issue will not last long without new orders, which increases financial risk. Poor visibility regarding both order intake and a sustainable financing solution has led us to lower our target price to SEK 0.19 per share (previously SEK 0.23 per share). Since the expected return is now below our required rate of return, we are downgrading our recommendation to “reduce” (previously “accumulate”).
