Meta - Blurring Reality's Interface

Facebook, now known as Meta, was founded in 2004 by Mark Zuckerberg. Facebook was originally intended as a networking platform for university students, but it quickly grew into a global social media giant that today has 2.9 billion active users. In other words, it is the world’s most popular social media platform.

Transformation into a virtual reality pioneer

Over the years, Facebook has expanded into a diverse social media ecosystem, including services such as Instagram, WhatsApp, and Oculus VR. In 2021, the company announced it was changing its name to Meta Platforms, Inc., reflecting its expansion into building virtual reality and the metaverse. Meta has ambitious goals to shape the future landscape of social media and virtual interaction—blurring the interface of reality.

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As one might guess, Facebook’s main sources of income are advertising revenues. It offers advertisers various advertising opportunities across its platforms, such as Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp. These ads are targeted based on users’ interests and demographic data, making them effective and attractive to advertisers. In addition, Facebook also has other revenue streams, such as paid services and an app store.

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Competitive Landscape

However, despite its position as market leader, Meta is by no means alone in raking in advertising revenue, and although Facebook has managed to maintain its popularity among users for two decades, new competitors such as TikTok have emerged. Its main competitors can be divided into four different categories:

  1. Social media: Competition is particularly fierce with other major technology companies such as Google (YouTube), Twitter, Snap Inc. (Snapchat), and TikTok, which offer their own social media platforms and advertising products. How long can the same platforms maintain the popularity of billions of users decade after decade, or will some platforms inevitably wither away?

  2. Virtual reality companies: Meta also competes in the virtual reality market with companies such as Apple (Vision Pro), Sony (PlayStation VR), HTC (Vive), and Valve (SteamVR). Its Oculus brand provides hardware and platforms for creating virtual reality experiences. Among the aforementioned, Apple in particular has begun to seriously challenge Meta in the virtual reality market with its Vision Pro VR headset. However, Mark Zuckerberg gave it a total thumbs down when he tested Apple’s Vision Pro headset in February: “After using the Vision Pro, I don’t just think Quest is the better value. I think that Quest is the better product, period.” However, sales of Oculus Quest products are still low.

  3. Messaging apps: Messaging apps like WhatsApp compete for users’ attention and are an integral part of Meta. Competition in this area is particularly focused on user numbers and data security.

  4. Content platforms: People’s available free time is limited, and Meta is competing for this free time with the likes of Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, and Apple TV+. Should I watch a series on Netflix tonight that just left me on a cliffhanger, or should I open Facebook or Instagram on my phone and scroll through an ad-filled feed? These small daily choices guide people’s consumption behavior and thus the revenue streams of technology giants.

How then does Meta strive to maintain its position in such a competitive field? Meta constantly seeks to find new innovations and technologies to invest in, such as virtual reality and the metaverse. The company also aims to strengthen user engagement and create communities through its platforms. Additionally, it leverages its strong advertising platform and user data to attract advertisers.

Stunning Growth

Since 2009, Meta has grown its revenue from $777 million to a staggering $135 billion, representing an annualized growth of approximately +41%. Based on last year’s results, the 10-year annualized earnings per share (EPS) growth is also nearly +39%. It is no wonder that with these figures, the company has grown to its current scale and taken its place alongside the US tech giants.

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Valuation

Meta was among the first five US companies to hit a $1 trillion market capitalization in 2021. This celebration did not last long, however, as the stock soon plummeted by as much as 77% from its ATH (All-Time High) levels by the end of 2022. The company did not stay down, however, but initiated cost-cutting measures while managing to turn advertising sales back onto a growth path. This was rewarded with an almost +200% rise last year, trailing only Nvidia’s AI-hype-fueled +250% “moon mission” among S&P 500 companies.

Calculated using last year’s realized earnings, the stock is currently trading at a P/E of 23.8x, which is quite close to Meta’s average over recent years. By this metric, it is not particularly expensive, but not cheap either.

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This is a lot of information for a tweet. :slight_smile:

https://twitter.com/Quality_stocksA/status/1781990892674453517

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Meta reported Q1 results that, at least overnight, didn’t sit well with investors, as the stock dropped nearly -20% in after-hours trading. :cold_face: Investors were apparently spooked by the CFO’s comments on wanting Meta to be the world’s leading AI firm, which in turn means accelerating investments.

We anticipate our full-year 2024 capital expenditures will be in the range of $35-40 billion, increased from our prior range of $30-37 billion as we continue to accelerate our infrastructure investments to support our artificial intelligence (AI) roadmap. While we are not providing guidance for years beyond 2024, we expect capital expenditures will continue to increase next year as we invest aggressively to support our ambitious AI research and product development efforts.

The market likely interpreted this as burning cash in a race that Meta has already lost.

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I have been reading the work “The Anxious Generation” as recommended by @Mauri. I highly recommend that everyone read this.

Naturally, the first thoughts concern the youth: Zuckerberg has blood on his hands, both figuratively and literally.

But in the context of an investment forum, other kinds of thoughts also arise. What is the ultimate regulatory risk for Meta (and Snapchat and, to some extent, Google’s YouTube)?

I often bring up the problems of authoritarian China. But where they have been pioneers is in regulating social media giants into the ground and regulating the screen time of minors.

As the catastrophic public health effects of social media become increasingly evident, could Meta face the same scrutiny as cigarettes or heavily polluting industries once did? So far, sacrificing the youth on the altar of screen time has seemed acceptable to citizens and politicians, but as attention issues, mental health problems, etc., go through the roof and evidence of the downsides of social media grows, I would be surprised if stricter regulation did not emerge at some point.

The book’s opening analogy is apt. Who would send their 10-year-old child to Mars for the rest of their life when we don’t know how people fare living there for years under domes in an artificial environment? Exactly, no one. Instead, an entire generation has been released into a virtual “Mars” without much concern and without adult supervision.

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Meta is once again in the headlines in a “positive light” just before earnings day.

https://www.wsj.com/tech/meta-cocaine-opioids-ads-dea8e0fc?mod=hp_lead_pos4

"Meta Platforms is running ads on Facebook and Instagram that steer users to online marketplaces for illegal drugs, months after The Wall Street Journal first reported that the social-media giant was facing a federal investigation over the practice.

The company has continued to collect revenue from ads that violate its policies, which ban promoting the sale of illicit or recreational drugs. A review by The Wall Street Journal in July found dozens of ads marketing illegal substances such as cocaine and prescription opioids, including as recently as Friday. A separate analysis over recent months by an industry watchdog group found hundreds of such ads…

… The Journal reported in March that federal authorities are investigating Meta for its role in the illicit sale of drugs. The nonprofit Tech Transparency Project, which investigates online platforms, reviewed Meta’s ad library from March to June and found more than 450 illicit drug ads on Facebook and Instagram.

“You don’t need the dark web anymore when you can just buy a Facebook ad to sell dangerous drugs or even scam people at a scale that wouldn’t have been possible through the dark web,” said Katie Paul, director of the Tech Transparency Project."

It naturally illustrates how difficult it is to monitor such a massive platform, even though the company surely makes at least a half-hearted effort to keep illegal activities away. As far as I understand, Meta currently has no actual legal liability for posts made on the platform, but this is somewhat murky.

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EPS grew to $5.16. Growth from last year was an impressive 73%. :exploding_head:

The investment outlook was raised again for this year, and growth was also hinted at for next year. This bodes well for chipmakers like NVIDIA, ARM, and AMD.

“While we do not intend to provide any quantitative guidance for 2025 until the fourth quarter call, we expect infrastructure
costs will be a significant driver of expense growth next year as we recognize depreciation and operating costs associated
with our expanded infrastructure footprint.
We anticipate our full-year 2024 capital expenditures will be in the range of $37-40 billion, updated from our prior range of
$35-40 billion. While we continue to refine our plans for next year, we currently expect significant capital expenditures
growth in 2025 as we invest to support our artificial intelligence research and product development efforts.”

"

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Meta beat market expectations with its second-quarter revenue, which rose 22 percent to $39.1 billion. The company’s CFO Susan Li stated that growth was supported by strong global “advertising demand” and the advancement of AI.

The Reality Labs unit, which manufactures/develops virtual reality stuff, suffered $4.5 billion in losses. The company expects third-quarter revenue to be $38.5–41 billion; although Meta’s costs grew by 7%, revenue rose more, leading to an increase in the operating margin.

This latest report reportedly eased investor concerns regarding Meta’s AI and metaverse investments. :thinking:

https://x.com/EconomyApp/status/1818743439418441828
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EDIT:

Here is also Sijoittaja.fi’s article on Meta. :slight_smile:

https://www.sijoittaja.fi/415463/metan-q2-2024-tulos/

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Tried them out at Instru. There was a demo counter at least at my local store. Positively surprised. They feel like regular glasses. Music and audio sounded surprisingly good. If it were an Apple product, it could be a hit.

https://www.instru.fi/ray-ban-meta-alylasit

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AI’s success in customer service, among other areas, is a sign of how AI is transforming companies and their operations. This can be a significant opportunity for investors if they are or have been early to the move.

Companies operating in this sector, such as Meta, can benefit from this trend if they stay at the forefront of development. However, it must be remembered that AI development is rapid and competition is fierce + everyone is repeating the AI mantra.

https://x.com/RihardJarc/status/1832063984242982930

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According to the tweet, Meta operates with a versatile business model focused on connecting people, businesses, and developers.

The primary source of revenue is advertising, which utilizes targeted and personalized (annoying) advertising solutions. The company includes Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, among others.

The company’s ROIC is 23% and its earnings per share has grown by 43% over the last three years. The balance sheet is strong and the company has no significant net debt. Meta benefits from network effects and an engaged user base. The most difficult challenges are investments in new technologies, such as virtual reality.

https://x.com/QCompounding/status/1834207872764322275

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Here is a tweet about Meta, which has risen to ATH levels. :slight_smile:

According to the tweet, the company is still attractively priced and is expected to grow well in the future. The company’s strengths include a strong brand, a large user base, and good profitability.

https://x.com/ZeevyInvesting/status/1836818698579104240

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Here is the latest Acquired podcast, featuring almost 7 hours of deep diving into Meta

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Meta reported lower-than-expected user growth and warned of a significant increase in infrastructure costs (or whatever they are) in 2025. The number of daily active users grew by five percent compared to the previous year, but fell short of analysts’ forecast of 3.31 billion, coming in at 3.29 billion.

Meta stated that costs will continue to rise in the coming year due to AI-related investments. The company is investing heavily in AI infrastructure and centers. Advertising revenue amounted to $39.9 billion, and advertising accounted for 98.3 percent of total revenue.

https://x.com/ZeevyInvesting/status/1852041353850736794
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https://x.com/ZeevyInvesting/status/1852041357168382442

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https://x.com/EconomyApp/status/1851723920543748129

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Meta and ARPU

AI stated:
ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) refers to the average revenue per user. It measures how much a company, such as Meta (formerly Facebook), earns on average from each of its users during a specific period, usually quarterly or annually. ARPU is calculated by dividing the company’s total revenue by the number of its active users. In Meta’s case, ARPU indicates how much the company earns on average per user through advertising revenue and other business operations. It is an important metric for analyzing the company’s growth and revenue per user.

https://x.com/Quartr_App/status/1852387017536975215

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EDIT:

Revenue and EPS development in graph format.

https://x.com/StockMKTNewz/status/1852348732827631704

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And then “relatively enough” figures about Meta:

https://x.com/carbonfinancex/status/1851602452111609922
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Below is a META analysis, according to which the company has decent growth prospects and strong financial efficiency, which support long-term return potential. The tweet discusses the company’s balance sheet, return on capital, margins, and the significance of AI investments, etc. :slight_smile:

https://x.com/DimitryNakhla/status/1861422174214426751
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Tweet images

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Meta is planning a $10 billion underwater fiber optic cable project that would cover the entire world. The project is still in its early stages and its implementation could take several years.

According to sources, Meta may officially announce the project next year. The cable would connect the East Coast of the United States to India, South Africa, and the West Coast. Its length could be up to 40,000 kilometers. The route avoids geopolitically sensitive areas.

This would be Meta’s first wholly-owned underwater cable, strengthening its global network infrastructure. Meta already accounts for 10 percent of the world’s “fixed network” traffic. :slight_smile:

There is no wall, it is readable by everyone.

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Here’s SalkunRakentaja’s article about the fine imposed by the European Commission on Meta. :slight_smile:

The European Commission has fined Meta approximately 798 million euros for violating EU competition rules. According to the Commission, Facebook’s parent company abused its dominant position by automatically linking users of its social media service to its classifieds service, Facebook Marketplace. Thus, it discriminated against competing classifieds services.

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Meta’s performance is quite tough, which the tweet below also demonstrates to some extent.

https://x.com/finchat_io/status/1863646897946366333
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Below is some reflection related to Meta and Alphabet.

https://x.com/RihardJarc/status/1868718735093383393
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and a reply to this tweet:

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