Lindex Group (Stockmann Group)

One would think so, but I’ve gathered from here that it’s specifically not possible, and if it were, it would have been done ages ago, of course. The parties cannot cut corners due to the bureaucracy related to that restructuring.

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Experts have speculated that the restructuring supervisor would not be an obstacle.
But there is always a risk of error as long as neither party leaks what they don’t want to disclose… Unless it has already been revealed (money)

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@lucas.mattsson: The interviewee was CEO Susanne Ehnbåge. :slight_smile:

Topics:

00:00 Intro
00:17 Q1 Highlights
01:51 Market Development
03:03 Lindex Division
04:18 New Distribution Center
05:36 Weakening of the US Dollar
06:48 Guidance

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A lot has been happening recently with the department store chain Peek & Cloppenburg, owned by JC Holding, the owner of Lindex. Earlier this year, it received permission from competition authorities to acquire the German clothing chain SiNN. Now, however, SiNN’s creditors apparently thwarted the plans. Will this affect Stockmann’s potential divestment plans at all, and is the Åhléns owner still in the bidding?

Here’s a link on the topic; you can surely find better sources with Google:

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I have to mention this now that the stock has become cheaper, that there was good buzz at Lindex in Jumbo over the weekend. People were queuing for the fitting rooms and there were significantly more people than in the neighboring Kappahl, and H&M also seemed to be left behind.

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Here’s a new report from @Rauli_Juva; we stubbornly (not necessarily a reference to Rauli, editor’s note,) believe in the return potential offered by possible structural arrangements: Lindex Q1'25: Tilapäisiä logistiikkaongelmia - Inderes

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Perhaps I’m overinterpreting, but from the recent press release of Tapiola’s Ainoa shopping center, one could read between the lines that they are preparing for big changes. I can’t think of anything other than the departure of a major anchor tenant or simply a contraction that would lead to such a 2-3 year timeframe for rearranging spaces in a shopping center that is only a few years old. It’s clear that converting a department store into other types of spaces would require long-term renovation work.

You can always make good even better, and that’s why we are making AINOA even better for each of us. We are developing the spaces, expanding the service selection, and improving the functionality of the shopping center step by step.

Over the next two to three years, we will rearrange our spaces and bring businesses from the same sector closer to each other. We want to make everyday shopping as pleasant and straightforward as possible. At the same time, several new stores will open in AINOA, bringing more variety and strengthening our position as a place for everyday shopping. AINOA – Ihan uutta ihanuutta · Kauppakeskus AINOA Tapiola

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It was announced early this year that Lidl will open in Ainoa in 2027. All grocery stores (Ainoa previously already had a Supermarket, K-Market, and S-Market) are intended to be located on the same floor, so it was already expected then that this would require a lot of arrangement, considering the current structure of the retail spaces on the M floor. I don’t believe there will be major changes for Tapiola Stockmann due to this, but of course, this is just my own opinion.

Edit: Let’s add the link to the press release now
AINOA’s grocery offering strengthens – Lidl opens a new store in the shopping center | Shopping Center AINOA

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Result of Lindex’s strategic assessment by the end of June?

  • It is announced that Stockmann will be sold
  • -ll- the assessment period will be extended until the end of the year
  • -ll- no buyer has been found and Stockmann will continue as ongoing operations within the group
  • -ll- Stockmann will continue within the group
  • Other, what?
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Quote KL.

Investment tips Lindex

Consider
Reduce
Buy.

Something for everyone.

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Marja-Leena Haapanen: Think . Do you want to own a loss-making company? Consider when better news comes.

KL also takes all sorts of gurus to its pages to share investment tips.

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The answer might perhaps be easily misunderstood. So, was the answer too intelligent for a man’s pipe brain? By buying Lindex, you also get the loss-making Stockmann. And it would indeed be better news if they could sell it… The company would be completely different..
Although I have also sometimes doubted his guru status, this forgives a lot..
“Then it happened that my husband died quite suddenly at the age of 62. I woke up next to his body and was a zombie for three years, but I did my job,” Haapanen describes her difficult times.

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The forum therefore believes there is a 20% probability that by the end of the evaluation period, sales intentions concerning Stockmann will be announced within some timeframe/it will be set as an asset for sale, meaning this would be the final result of the evaluation. The share price is heavily skewed in comparison, in my opinion. Since there is extremely little, if any, information available regarding the final outcome of the matter, it is trust that is now taking a hard hit with a probable (50%, forum) second postponement. The pit is further deepened by the fact that this would simultaneously mean, in practice, waiting for the Court of Appeal’s decision, and that, in turn, would certainly mean the previously mentioned spring months of next year. In other words, it would then be very likely, if not certain, that at the end of the year, the evaluation period would be postponed for a third time until the end of H1 -26.

My previous estimate for Lindex’s price with Stockmann, if it were announced that it would not be sold or could not be sold, is still 1.8e. If, or when, however one wishes to read this, the evaluation period is postponed until the end of the year, the share price will take at least a -15% hit. Of course, it is possible that instead of the former, the company will directly announce that it will continue the evaluation period until the end of the aforementioned H1 -26.

Even if Stockmann were sold in a year, or rather, if the announcement were made, the investor would, while waiting for this, again be directly exposed for a year to risks related to a potential sale of Stockmann, a decrease/withdrawal of potential buyers, as well as all conventional general investment and related risks, from main markets to the consumer sector and everything in between.

In addition to the decrease or loss of trust, it is worth asking, if the company has constantly been waiting solely for the decision/clarification of the last restructuring case, and before this, the result of the evaluation is not announced/will not be announced, then why on earth was the evaluation period given only until the end of H1 -25?

There is always also the possibility that the announcement is that Stockmann will not be sold / cannot be sold. Of course, these and all scenarios and their probabilities are for each individual to calculate. I myself compare the current situation to a coin toss/game of chance, although 50% for a sale still sounds like quite a high percentage to my ears. On the other hand, the forum’s 30% also sounds like a lot for the announcement by the end of H1 to be that Stockmann will not be sold after all. This, however, excellently underlines the increasing risks and unpredictability in the stock at the moment.

On the verge of something interesting. I also left things between the lines. Hopefully I jinxed money for the frogs. I own it. Still.

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On Wednesday, S-ryhmä announced that it is starting a procurement cooperation with the Åhlens department store, which will bring Åhlens’ own brand products to Sokos and Prisma stores. From this, one can conclude that Åhlens is not (anymore?) actively negotiating the purchase of Stockmann department stores; otherwise, starting cooperation with a competitor at this stage would sound strange.

Depending on the perspective, one can speculate that the sale of the department stores has progressed to the point where a buyer has already been chosen (the best guess still being the main owner Nordic Retail Partners) or fear that the entire process is falling apart. Or perhaps Åhlens was never even involved in the process. There is no information about this, so all guesses are equally good :slight_smile:

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I don’t believe Ahlens was ever a serious buyer - although perhaps they acted as a stalking horse in the process.

We are living in interesting times, about 30 days until the end of H1. The last time the strategy update postponement was announced was on December 17th, about two weeks before the end of the month, let’s see what happens now.

My chips are still on something coming out now and no further postponement - another postponement would likely mean a rather sharp downward stock market reaction. Let’s just pull 70/30 percentages out of a hat that something new will come out.

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In the recently published publication by the Finnish Shopping Centre Association, there is interesting data on shopping centres’ sales relative to area and visitor numbers. Ainoa apparently has some of the best sales figures per area in the Helsinki metropolitan area, 50% more than in Itis and 17% more than in the always busy Jumbo. Perhaps it also correlates with Stockmann’s sales in these locations - and certainly underlines why Itis was not the right location for a department store. Of course, there’s nothing new or surprising here; regional purchasing power differences are significant.

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In HS, an article behind a paywall about Lindex’s situation: Stockmann saatetaan joutua antamaan pois ilmaiseksi, sanoo analyytikko | HS.fi

This point was new to me, at least, namely why the Swiss originally acquired a stake in Lindex:

JC Holding’s CEO David Barst answers HS’s questions via email.

"Why did the Swiss want to buy a slice of Finnish Stockmann in the first place? Was the original plan to start with a hostile takeover and eventually seize the department stores for themselves?

”No, it was purely a strategic investment, centered on the Lindex chain, not the Stockmann department stores. We wanted more experience in the underwear and children’s clothing segments,” Barst writes in his email reply."

By the way, the article also interviewed @Arttu_Heikura; I wonder if @Rauli_Juva is on vacation!?

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That very same point from the story was the only new thing that caught my eye. That can be seen a bit negatively in terms of Nordic retail partners buying department stores. Of course, they couldn’t directly say that it is or has been the plan. And on the other hand, the investment in Lindex improves significantly if they get rid of the department stores. So that doesn’t mean they couldn’t be the buyer of the department stores.

I was indeed on vacation last week, so Arttu got his name in the paper here :slightly_smiling_face:

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If someone wants experience in the women’s and children’s clothing business, is buying a 15% stake in a company like this really the best way, especially when they don’t have their own representative on the board?

The most interesting comment was Björkman’s statement:

According to Björkman, the Finnish-Swiss ownership group will take a stand on the matter once the strategy assessment is complete.

My strong impression is that the assessment will be completed as soon as the deals have been agreed upon, meaning Stockmann officially won’t be for sale, but the purpose of the assessment is to find a buyer. Perhaps that statement can be interpreted in many ways.

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