“The tipping point is that magic moment when an idea, trend, or social behavior crosses a threshold, tips, and spreads like wildfire.” Malcolm Gladwell: Introduction to The Tipping Point
In “The Tipping Point,” I’d like to discuss trends, products, and companies that are on the verge of a breakthrough. Those that are already familiar to early adopters, but the general public is just catching on. I personally missed or didn’t understand the significance of iPhones, Netflix, Teslas, Marimekkos, Lululemons, TikToks, Fortnite, and Zooms before they were known to everyone. It would be desirable for women to participate in the discussion. They often follow different media than men and are therefore more aware of trends. It is hoped that this thread will not discuss very early-stage companies or technologies. In general, the discussion should be kept at a more general level, with observations from one’s own environment, whether physical or digital. More detailed monitoring of individual companies, valuation levels, or other numerical analysis discussions would be moved to their own groups. Of course, it would be desirable if there is a company that is currently close to a tipping point and has its own discussion group, that it would be mentioned here so that one could go and examine it more closely in its own group.
Unfortunately, I don’t have anything to contribute to this thread myself, but that’s why I started it I follow more technology news whose proper commercialization is 5-10 years away, making it more of a hit-and-miss to find winning companies. For example, I invested in QT for the first time when it made its first profitable quarter, and I was still able to get in quite well. It would have been great if I had known to buy it at €5, but predictability would have been harder then to determine if it was the real winner.
I wonder if Graphene Manufacturing Group Ltd. will fulfill your wishes.
They have made promising progress in manufacturing a new type of battery, which is now in the test factory construction phase, together with Bosch. The factory should be ready later this year (I don’t remember the exact time) and test production should begin. If all goes well, this battery will blast a rocket to the moon.
At the moment, it’s still a lottery ticket.
I don’t have the energy to compile more in-depth information about this so late.
Well, the company in question was only listed on April 15, 2021, and from the closing price of the first day, the price has only risen 5.5x. Older price data is likely remnants of Cuspis Capital Ltd. (the company went public via a SPAC-style capital pool company).
All in all, an interesting pick, thanks @Tipitityy! However, it seems it will still take “a while” for the company to reach the ignition point mentioned in the thread’s opening.
I plan to follow the company myself, as the first button cells have already been sent to customers for testing. The test factory was completed at the beginning of December. Bosch, as I understand it, was not yet involved in this, but only when/if a commercial factory is ever built.
Thanks for the first reply to the thread. The company in question sounds interesting, but for this thread, I’m looking for companies that already have manufacturing and some customers. Preferably, the customers, whether companies or ordinary consumers, would have expressed “this is a game-changer,” and it would no longer be just the company’s promotional speech or storytelling. Often these things can be right in front of you, but you don’t see them yourself. For example, iPhone or Amazon. The fact that a company’s stock price has multiplied does not exclude it. I did look at Amazon at $280, and the P/E was horrifying even then, something like 300. Facebook was in front of everyone and went below its IPO price; people wondered how it would finance its free service for consumers. Someone can always understand that there is something special here that is worth paying for now, before it goes on a logarithmic scale. I have noticed, for example, that @timontti is good at understanding the relationship between price and potential. Since the investment universe is large and there are many interesting companies just here, it’s impossible to follow every group for years, time doesn’t permit, which is why I started this thread so that people could say, “hey, this company’s story is starting to look like it’s about to ignite.” Why would I tell those lazy ones who don’t bother to follow? For example, @Pohjolan_Eka caused a spark in Solteq regarding the price. He just brought things to light, not manipulated. I was and still am heavily invested in it, thanks for that.
My significant other mentioned Zoom, Lululemon, Marimekko; guess if I believed her. I thought they might go up, but I didn’t understand that, for example, Marimekko has found a new audience willing to pay hundreds of euros for a gray college sweatshirt. I don’t personally hang out on Marimekko’s discussion board, but it would be nice to know if someone has noticed from their environment that some clothing item or brand in the consumer sector is now emerging.
Could such a technology on the verge of a tipping point be the SMR (Small Modular Reactor), which is essentially a “miniature” nuclear power plant? Until now, these have primarily been seen in nuclear submarines and aircraft carriers. In Finland, however, they have been envisioned, for example, as district heating plants.
HS has an interesting article (unfortunately behind a paywall):
A few key points for those without access:
France has pledged one billion euros for development. In Britain, Rolls-Royce, and in the United States, GE Hitachi and Nuscale.
China is developing reactors that differ from current ones.
VTT and LUT are developing concepts for district heating production using nuclear power.
Russia has a floating 70MW SMR barge, based on submarine technology.
SMRs could also be more widely suitable for shipping, which would reduce cargo emissions.
Traditional nuclear power permits have been reactor-specific → it has been profitable to build as large as possible → safety arrangements are demanding.
Large reactors are always unique projects, whereas SMRs could be mass-produced using established processes.
SMR electrical outputs, e.g., 60-300MW, compared to OL3’s 1600MW.
SMRs would be a natural part of the green energy palette and would typically balance the lack of sun and wind for nuclear power.
The advantage of SMRs over traditional nuclear power plants is their small size. If something goes wrong, the process is easier to manage.
China has further developed a German SMR concept that produces hotter steam than normal (up to 500 degrees Celsius), which could be utilized in existing coal-fired power plants.
Increasing nuclear power would also be sensible from a security of supply perspective, as uranium yields significantly more energy per kilogram than, for example, coal. The ratio is even on the order of 1:100,000.
In my opinion, (small) nuclear power is precisely on the verge of a tipping point, as the general atmosphere around nuclear power becomes more favorable. I cannot assess which companies might potentially benefit from this trend.
In my opinion, (small-scale) nuclear power is exactly on the verge of a tipping point as the general atmosphere around nuclear power becomes more favorable. I can’t assess which companies might benefit from this trend.
Centrus Energy Corp. (LEU) comes to mind, at least. I don’t have detailed information about its current valuation, and I’m not a nuclear physicist, so there might be many factual errors in the following. However, it is a company that apparently enriches uranium into HALEU (High-Assay Low Enriched Uranium) fuel. This is practically more enriched uranium than what is used in ordinary nuclear power plants. Apparently, this HALEU will be used in SMR (Small Modular Reactor) reactors because it is more efficient. Or so Centrus Energy Corp. advertises on its website. I have no information as to whether this is true or if SMRs could be run on ordinary uranium as well.
I’m not entirely sure if this is a company or product on the verge of a tipping point. Its value has increased 20-30 fold in a couple of years. It has fallen quite a bit since autumn, but as I mentioned earlier, I have no idea if the valuation levels are still sustainable.
IQM, which originated from Aalto University, could be close to what the original poster is looking for. The company builds quantum computers, and at least one is already operational in Finland. It has over 130 employees and operations in Germany, France, and Spain. Founded in 2018, the company has raised over 71 million euros in funding. At the end of 2021, a production facility was completed in Espoo, where quantum processors can be manufactured. The company also had a stand at CES. According to research commissioned by the company, 76% of the world’s HPC data centers plan to adopt quantum computing by 2023.
The information was mainly dug up from press materials and social media posts:
Zoomist, Lululemonist, Marimekkoist, my partner said, guess if I believed it. I thought they could rise, but I didn’t understand that, for example, Marimekko has found a new audience willing to pay hundreds of euros for a grey college shirt. I don’t personally monitor Marimekko’s discussion board either, but it would be nice to know if anyone has noticed in their surroundings that a certain piece of clothing or brand in the consumer sector is emerging now.
I can’t give any specific tips, but on a general level, I can say something.
I think it’s worth paying attention to what young people are doing. They are usually the “early adopters” who decide if an application or clothing brand is “cool.” Older people then follow when applications like MobilePay have been in use for 5+ years and proven to work. I remember, for example, with Facebook (around 2007), all young people were there. However, it took many years (5-10?) for boomers to discover the whole thing.
Regarding Marimekko, which you mentioned, I have been bullish precisely because the company’s products are seen on young adults. As another example, I could mention Nocco and Celsius drinks, which have long been popular among young people. This creates visibility and also attracts other consumer groups to buy the products. So, I think it’s worth observing what the new generation is up to.
It’s possible, but they are aiming to build a factory for production this year, and also start production. According to the CEO, they are pushing this matter forward quite aggressively. So if everything goes according to plan, one could imagine that the production of pouch cell batteries will begin next year.
I don’t know the Finnish translation for that battery, but it’s a battery manufacturing technique that is more challenging than, for example, coin cell batteries. It requires more from the factory and production, which is why it’s good that Bosch is involved. The video below explains the matter.
@turbo presented an interesting alternative regarding the industry where these companies on the verge of a flashpoint might be found.
Yle reported a few weeks ago on Finland’s first quantum computer. The article mentioned how more than a dozen companies in Finland are working with quantum technologies, with a total turnover of around one hundred million euros, and new businesses are also emerging from universities, among others.
In addition to IQM, Bluefors, a manufacturer of cryogenic systems, was specifically mentioned as a rapidly growing company. It was also stated that Finland has strong expertise in both quantum technology component manufacturing and software development. Demand is expected to come especially from the software side, where, for example, algorithms for quantum computing are being developed.
According to the article, competition is fierce, and superpowers are investing billions in the development of quantum computers. For comparison, it is stated that the Finnish state funded the construction of the quantum computer with just over 20 million euros.
Here is a link to the news article, if you are interested in learning more:
I’ve been following the quantum technology discussions quite a bit, and companies seem to be investing heavily in it. However, practical use cases are still lacking because R&D costs are so massive, and the technology is still in its infancy. We are thus very far from the point where, first, the technology would be cost-effective enough and, second, where partners could be brought in to form ecosystems. Could new companies emerge from Finland for these ecosystems? Certainly. Will we see major commercial breakthroughs in quantum technology in the coming years? I don’t think so.
With small investments, you probably won’t succeed in these festivities, but those producers of auxiliary products/services, such as Bluefors, might have a better chance of gaining market share.
Edit. Disclaimer: I don’t know the industry in any way.
Edit 2. Bluefors has already been written about by Talouselämä. I couldn’t read the whole article, but according to the beginning, the company was founded by two Dutch physicists in Otaniemi, Espoo, and it sells gold-plated coolers to quantum computer developers around the world. It had 180 employees in 2019, when the article was published.
I’ll add the link here as a source.
Edit 3. Hesari has reported that the development company Devco Partners has bought a minority stake in Bluefors. I’ll stop digging for information here.
You’re right, young people often adopt things first and others follow. My own children are young enough that I can’t yet see new trends through them, so I’m a bit behind on everything. And I’m old enough that I often enjoy staying at home if I’m not traveling. When traveling, I do try to look around, thinking about what’s visible here that isn’t in Finland. My son plays Fortnite. On weekdays he lives elsewhere, so Fortnite is a meeting place for him with friends when he’s with me. In that sense, I could believe in this Meta, even though the idea itself is still otherwise strange to me. And how important some Fortnite event was to him, so he could stay up for it. In addition, he mainly watches only YouTube and from there only YouTubers related to games. Related to that, I have invested in Enthusiast Gaming Holdings Inc (EGLX). Its price has now come down quite a bit, but I haven’t quite gotten a good grasp of it yet.
Quantum machines are very interesting, probably to others besides me. IQM and Bluefors are interesting, but I don’t think you can become a shareholder in them. Are there other companies in the field whose shares you can buy? Google and IBM are such huge behemoths that I don’t think they’ll really jump from a couple of quantum leaps.
As a trend, I’d like to bring up plant-based proteins for discussion. For many young people (including my three children), eating meat is already a thing of the past, and even among us middle-aged city dwellers, it’s becoming common for many to refuse meat. I believe that, at least in the domestic market, we are just on the verge of that tipping point, but despite this, there isn’t a single large market leader, and the companies in question are still quite marginal, with their products relatively unknown to the wider public. According to forecasts, product development is at a stage where a lot of improvements in product quality will happen in the very near future, whether compared to meat or not. Is it possible for a product manufacturer and brand to rise to a dominant position in the market? The growth potential in the industry is undeniable, but who will be the winners?
I don’t have an answer to this. Something like Beyond Meat seems to have peaked but has since collapsed. I also believe in the rise of oat products, as they also have a health advantage in comparison to wheat among grain products. The market will probably be divided regionally in part, but one could also imagine (better than meat products) that a strong global brand could emerge from plant-based proteins. Right now, we are specifically talking about a phenomenon that is gaining ground starting from the younger generation.
Interesting thought! Personally, I’ve mostly tried to avoid the food industry due to intense competition, but this could be an exception segment.
What do you think, could one expose a portfolio to the rise of plant-based foods and meat substitutes through a mega-crawler like Raisio, or does it require a different brand?
Observing in a Lynchian (lynchmäisesti) manner, I have been convinced of Meeat’s products for a long time. At least in my local grocery store, I find them to be superior in taste and texture, and often among the cheapest when compared to other similar plant-based proteins. Meeat’s “muu” (other) product family was apparently originally part of Pouttu and has now been spun off into its own company.
According to the CEO, the 2020 revenue was 3.5 million euros, with a goal to double revenue annually. I would be very happy to explore this as a potential investment if it ever decided to go public
This is definitely a future megatrend. I myself have significantly reduced my meat consumption, and many of my acquaintances have done the same, especially younger people seem to be reducing meat consumption and replacing it with plant-based proteins. As product development progresses and products become tastier and have better textures, I believe they will reach an even larger audience over time.
I follow more technology news whose proper commercialization is 5-10 years away, making it more of a hit-and-miss to find winning companies. For example, I invested in QT for the first time when it made its first profitable quarter, and I was still able to get in quite well. It would have been great if I had known to buy it at €5, but predictability would have been harder then to determine if it was the real winner.
