Atte already commented on the positive earnings revision:
Guidance ranges rose significantly above our forecasts
Kreate now estimates 2026 revenue to be EUR 510–550 million, which would mean 62–75% growth compared to 2025 revenue of EUR 315 million. Previous guidance expected revenue of EUR 430–470 million. Profitability guidance also rose significantly. The company now expects EBITA of EUR 18–22 million, which represents 76–116% growth from the previous year’s EUR 10.2 million. Previous EBITA guidance was EUR 15–18 million.
Let’s add Ate’s comments on Kreate’s new Norwegian contract here as well.
Kreate announced on Friday that Kreate Sverige has signed a contract with Skanska for the inner lining of the Gullberg Tunnel in Norway. The contract is worth approximately EUR 6 million including options, which is relatively small for a company of Kreate’s size, but in our opinion, a strategically very interesting opening to the Norwegian market. The project strengthens our view of Kreate’s ability to scale its specialized expertise, strengthened in Sweden, to other Nordic countries. The contract will be booked into the first quarter’s order book. The announcement does not cause changes to our forecasts, as the project’s size is modest in relation to Kreate’s revenue, which we forecast to be EUR 445 million in 2026.
This was a relatively big positive surprise to an already strong guidance. I gathered from the release that the consolidation of KFS would impact revenue by €30 million and EBITA by perhaps around €1.1 million (the consolidation is not expected to affect relative profitability). Thus, without the consolidation, the new guidance could add €50 million in revenue and €2.4 million in EBITA to the old one (calculated from the midpoints), which is an 11% increase in revenue guidance and a 14.5% increase in EBITA guidance. This leverage then flows to the bottom line, where KFS’s result was, of course, already included. Perhaps about €0.2 more EPS, which, according to my calculations, would lead to an earnings per share of around €1.4 this year at the midpoint of the current guidance. Inderes’ previous forecast was €1.17/share.
Things are going strong, and Kreate has indeed been one of the best IPOs in recent years.
Atte has prepared a new company report after some pleasant news.
We are raising our target price for Kreate to 16.0 euros (previously 15.0€) after the company issued a positive earnings warning yesterday. Our recommendation remains at “add”. In addition to the current year, we see positive drivers for volume support in the coming years, including multi-year projects in the current project portfolio, strengthening demand from the private sector, especially in data center construction, and growth potential in other Nordic countries. On the other hand, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East creates upward pressure on construction costs. However, we estimate that the company is now significantly better prepared for the situation than during the previous cost shock. Kreate’s comments also indicate that the crisis has not weakened the demand outlook in growth segments.
Here is Atte’s preview as Kreate reports its Q1 results on Monday.
We expect the company’s revenue growth to have accelerated from the comparison period, reflecting a very strong order backlog and the completed SRV Infra acquisition. However, the first quarter is typically the company’s seasonally weakest, and our attention in the report will be particularly focused on the factors behind the guidance upgrade at the end of March, the development of the order backlog and the Swedish operations, and the outlook. We estimate that the order backlog strengthened significantly during the quarter from the record level at the end of last year, thanks to strong order flow.
Here are quick comments from Atte regarding Kreate’s strong Q1
Kreate reported an all-around very strong first-quarter result, where both revenue and earnings clearly exceeded our forecasts. The result and growth were driven especially by an order backlog that has swelled to record levels and the new volume brought in by acquisitions, as a result of which the company broke its quarterly revenue record during its seasonally quietest period. In our view, the high order backlog and the strong start to the year provide the company with an excellent foundation for achieving the guidance raised at the end of the quarter.
Atte interviewed Kreate’s CEO Timo Vikström regarding Q1
Topics:
00:00 Introduction
00:14 Historically strong result
00:47 Previous guidance upgrade
02:02 Data centers and private sector demand
04:13 Change in the shareholders’ agreement
05:15 Recruitment needs
06:03 Impacts of the Middle East
07:03 Norwegian market
08:55 Development phase projects
09:43 Sustainability of the volume level
Here is a company report on Kreate from Atte following the Q1 results.
Kreate’s Q1 result was once again clearly stronger than our forecasts in terms of both growth and profitability. We believe the record-level order backlog will strengthen further during the spring, improving visibility for both the remainder of the year and next year. In our assessment, the market situation in Kreate’s main markets remains very positive. The company’s outlook has strengthened particularly in private sector accounts, and we believe Kreate’s competitive position is good in, for example, the growing data center construction segment. On the back of the solid order backlog and outlook, we are placing more weight on the future in our valuation. We raise the target price to EUR 20.0 (prev. EUR 16.0), and our recommendation remains at Accumulate.
