No, it doesn’t, but it is an interesting company indeed. Thanks @Bjorninen for bringing it up. The industry is interesting and seems exactly like the kind where I usually tend to lose money.
So, I bought a small research position, which motivated me to spend this evening filling out my Excel sheet.
The company’s figures look good on the surface.
That 2-yr Fwd is misleading, though, because it takes into account this year’s massive rise. The company is followed by one analyst (DNB), and they have quite moderate growth forecasts for the coming years:
Excess returns (and losses) are made by being a contrarian, so I thought I’d look into the growth potential. I typed the available figures into Excel and looked at what the 12-month trailing revenue and the order backlog look like on the same chart.
I think they look pretty good! Whenever the order backlog has grown, revenue has followed, at least over some timeframe. I can’t yet assess the sustainability of the backlog, but the 2022 annual report contains a section like this.
I wonder if @Bjorninen or someone else could estimate how significant a breakthrough this is? Various sources do state that Cambi is a leading player in the field, and the industry is likely growing at a healthy pace due to various public investments, but the story still needs more meat on its bones to fully convince me.
The company’s expenses seem to have remained relatively constant, so the growth appears to have been organic. There were some adjustments following the new segment structure presented at the Capital Markets Day. Apparently, some items were moved from other operating expenses to COGS, but EBIT seems to have remained fairly comparable. It looks like a quarterly revenue of 100 mNOK acts as a kind of breakeven point where the business starts to scale nicely.
My research is still very much a work in progress, but the order backlog and scalability seem quite interesting and promising. The CEO went on paternity leave for a few months. I haven’t come across that with a listed company before.