Assessing political risks is more than beneficial in emerging countries and the companies operating within them. Below is a reflection from BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, on their top 10 for this year.
Kazakhstan’s economy has boomed in the 2000s, especially thanks to raw materials. Politically, it has sought a balance between the USA, China, and Russia. Within these frameworks, the telecom company has also been able to grow and prosper.
The problems are the oligarchic system and huge disparities in living standards, which have now erupted into popular unrest. Economic problems have also been evident recently. The crushing of the uprising by Kremlin companies effectively meant Kazakhstan’s transition into a Russian protectorate. Beneath the surface, there has also been (according to the government, extremist) Islamic agitation, which often stems from poverty and a lack of prospects.
The government’s authority has eroded, suppressing the people with violence leaves a simmering mine, and the apparent breakdown of great power balance hardly bodes well for the country’s development. Of course, stable structures can also be maintained in Russia, for example, by exporting raw materials and importing currency in return.
Then it’s a slightly different matter what this means for the telecom company Kaspi and ultimately its share price. If there are no further revolutions, then from a narrow company perspective, conditions will stabilize. During the attempted revolution, the company appeared to have done “favors” for the government, and it is certainly one of the key players for the functioning of society.
On the other hand, the country and its companies have taken a dent in the eyes of investors. The stabilization of conditions can also mean stagnation, and the strong development of the 2000s may not necessarily continue.
Predicting revolutions and sudden changes is very difficult. The most famous example is probably Paavo Väyrynen, who, on the eve of the collapse of the Soviet Union, predicted in his doctoral dissertation that it would be a permanent structure 
Forecasting the future of Kazakhstan and Kaspi is even more difficult. To put it informally, Kazakhstan’s risk thermometer has risen from around the fever threshold of 37 degrees significantly into fever territory. The company may still succeed even in these circumstances.