Kamux’s performance is weak. Admittedly, the markets are challenging right now. Sales volumes for new cars in Finland are at record lows, which means no used cars are being added to the circulating population from the domestic market. Uncertainty regarding the choice of powertrain is slowing down consumers’ purchasing decisions.
And there is weakness in the neighboring country’s market as well. Stores closing and bankruptcies too.
Kamux’s poor figures are not driven by the market situation, but rather by the company’s weak performance. This has been visible for years already. In Finland, Kamux is losing market share to its competitors.
At the same time, Saka is publishing completely different figures.
From the Q1 release: "Saka forged record-breaking figures in the first quarter (Q1) of the year. The company’s revenue grew significantly, rising to 194.9 million euros. Simultaneously, the company’s profitability improved substantially compared to the reference period, strengthening our position as the superior market leader in the industry in Finland.
Saka’s start to the year shows that there is demand for an automotive retail innovator, even though the general economic situation has been a topic of concern for consumers. Our company sold a total of 10,690 cars during January–March."
Edit: here is an image to help visualize the development over the recent years:
Well, in Finland, there isn’t a huge difference in units between Kamux vs SAKA, though there certainly is in trade-ins.
But Kamux definitely needs more brisk sales going forward and must continue to keep costs under control.
Kamux’s Q1 is a disappointment, that much is clear. Heavy headcount in Germany…
Inevitably, the question comes to mind: what exactly is so difficult about this? Of course, addressing challenges and inventory optimization takes time, but this has been going on for a long while now.
Kamux has had 50% or more diesel cars in stock throughout the entire Q2. This is easy to verify even now through the inventory search on their website. At the same time, demand for used electric vehicles has doubled in Finland. From this, one can draw conclusions about how this second quarter is progressing.
There are all sorts of buyers in the car market, and not everyone is looking to buy an electric vehicle. Good diesels without electrification are the crown jewels for a certain crowd, and their prices have risen. Let’s see how Q2 goes; there are at least signs of the market picking up. In Germany, Kamux is forced to hold change negotiations (YT) and let 10-15 people go, mainly from the back office. And perhaps the best move in Germany would be to just board up the windows.
Kamux’s sustainable competitive advantages?
Kamux’s results make it look like those sustainable competitive advantages might not have existed after all.
Big credit to Rauli for managing to flip a positive recommendation that stood for 8 years to negative at the start of last year, after earnings had declined for 4 consecutive years. I am, however, a bit concerned that the basis for the earnings improvement in the analysis is simply that last year went poorly. Earnings hardly improve just because last year was bad. I would love to hear @Rauli_Juva’s reasoning on what exactly is going to change. Will revenue grow, which expense line will decrease, or in what way is the earnings improvement coming? In my opinion, the fact that last year was bad is not a justification for an earnings recovery.
Also a good graph from @OsakeKeisari to illustrate the changes in the competitive situation and market shares. More of these, please!
Rauli has published a new company report on Kamux following the Q1 results 
Kamux’s Q1 result improved slightly from the comparison period but remained loss-making and fell below our forecasts. Guidance for full-year earnings improvement was reiterated. We lowered our forecasts, but still expect a slight improvement compared to last year’s weak level. The company’s earnings and valuation are weighed down by loss-making foreign operations, which it does not, however, seem to be considering divesting.
Quote from the report:
As Kamux’s international operations continue to face challenges in both growth and profitability, we do not see their potential being realized in the near future. On the other hand, the Finnish business has also developed negatively in recent years, which increases risk, as we still expect a reasonable result from Finland in the coming years. In terms of earnings multiples, we believe Kamux is highly valued on 2026-27 figures, and the expected return therefore remains weak.
The earnings improvement forecasted for this year is already quite marginal, and earnings remain at a miserable level, so no major drastic changes are expected there. A small improvement will come through lower costs in Germany and integrated services in Finland (though this is admittedly quite uncertain).
The improvement expected for next year is mainly due to an improving gross margin (rautakate) in Finland; in other words, it is believed that Kamux can get its buying and selling operations into slightly better shape. Small improvements are also expected abroad through both gross margins and fixed costs—essentially through better overall operational efficiency.
Of course, but in the grand scheme of things, this is insignificant and just a nuance. Kamux has been running a campaign since April where buyers of diesel cars are given a €500 fuel gift card as a bonus. This kind of tactic wouldn’t be used if those cars were selling well on their own.
I haven’t checked in a while, but I wonder if Kamux’s gross margin (rautakate) in Finland is currently much more than that 500 euros?
If there are no significant competitive advantages, then the solution lies in efficiency. At what level of operating profit can Kamux perform? This is what the investor must evaluate.
At the current price, an EBIT of 1% gives a P/E level of 13. An EBIT of 2% gives a P/E ratio of under 5.
Yeah, Kamux is hanging onto its strategy period program like our country’s government hangs onto its government program. Kamux’s board should really pull themselves together. Sure, Kalliokoski mentioned they are working on the 2027–2029 strategy, but corporate management also requires living in the moment. Something radical must be done about the German operations; they haven’t yielded a single euro in profit yet. Sweden has better chances of getting its head above water.
Of course, I see opportunities for Kamux as a whole to improve in 2026, as the changes made to the showroom network in 2025 will materialize by then. Market sentiment is also improving slightly, and both small and larger players have exited the market.
Furthermore, once all car dealership chains are made to pay car taxes and VAT (Alv) as they should, the rules of the playing field will be leveled, and car price levels will become healthier.
It is pretty much exactly there at the moment. Of course, the metal margin in Finland is only a third of the total gross margin, as the role of integrated services is significant.
By the way, last night Aramis, which operates in Central Europe, lowered its full-year outlook as the market weakened due to the war in Iran. In the so-called pre-registered segment, they highlight a problem where demand for electric vehicles (EVs) has grown at the expense of internal combustion engines (ICE), but there isn’t enough EV supply available in the market (and of course, price competition on the buying side is tightening). Granted, they do not share the same markets as Kamux, and no market weakening has been seen in Finland or Sweden during March-April.
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Even though I don’t follow car advertising particularly closely, I’ve noticed the TV commercials from various car dealerships: Saka emphasizes quality control, while Rinta-Jouppi focuses on service and meeting customer needs. Kamux’s message is simply that they have cars for sale and also physical stores. Perhaps they should rethink their messaging a bit before they start burning money on advertising.
Could these outbursts and generalizations be moved to the “personal experiences” thread, and preferably include a couple of facts there as well, especially since these same arguments have been written 700 times over the last 3 years.
Apologies for this zero-info post as well, so this should also be removed from here. I have not invested in Kamux.
