Rauli has published a new company report on Kamux following the Q1 results
Kamuxâs Q1 result improved slightly from the comparison period but remained loss-making and fell below our forecasts. Guidance for full-year earnings improvement was reiterated. We lowered our forecasts, but still expect a slight improvement compared to last yearâs weak level. The companyâs earnings and valuation are weighed down by loss-making foreign operations, which it does not, however, seem to be considering divesting.
Quote from the report:
As Kamuxâs international operations continue to face challenges in both growth and profitability, we do not see their potential being realized in the near future. On the other hand, the Finnish business has also developed negatively in recent years, which increases risk, as we still expect a reasonable result from Finland in the coming years. In terms of earnings multiples, we believe Kamux is highly valued on 2026-27 figures, and the expected return therefore remains weak.
The earnings improvement forecasted for this year is already quite marginal, and earnings remain at a miserable level, so no major drastic changes are expected there. A small improvement will come through lower costs in Germany and integrated services in Finland (though this is admittedly quite uncertain).
The improvement expected for next year is mainly due to an improving gross margin (rautakate) in Finland; in other words, it is believed that Kamux can get its buying and selling operations into slightly better shape. Small improvements are also expected abroad through both gross margins and fixed costsâessentially through better overall operational efficiency.
Of course, but in the grand scheme of things, this is insignificant and just a nuance. Kamux has been running a campaign since April where buyers of diesel cars are given a âŹ500 fuel gift card as a bonus. This kind of tactic wouldnât be used if those cars were selling well on their own.
I havenât checked in a while, but I wonder if Kamuxâs gross margin (rautakate) in Finland is currently much more than that 500 euros?
If there are no significant competitive advantages, then the solution lies in efficiency. At what level of operating profit can Kamux perform? This is what the investor must evaluate.
At the current price, an EBIT of 1% gives a P/E level of 13. An EBIT of 2% gives a P/E ratio of under 5.
Yeah, Kamux is hanging onto its strategy period program like our countryâs government hangs onto its government program. Kamuxâs board should really pull themselves together. Sure, Kalliokoski mentioned they are working on the 2027â2029 strategy, but corporate management also requires living in the moment. Something radical must be done about the German operations; they havenât yielded a single euro in profit yet. Sweden has better chances of getting its head above water.
Of course, I see opportunities for Kamux as a whole to improve in 2026, as the changes made to the showroom network in 2025 will materialize by then. Market sentiment is also improving slightly, and both small and larger players have exited the market.
Furthermore, once all car dealership chains are made to pay car taxes and VAT (Alv) as they should, the rules of the playing field will be leveled, and car price levels will become healthier.
It is pretty much exactly there at the moment. Of course, the metal margin in Finland is only a third of the total gross margin, as the role of integrated services is significant.
By the way, last night Aramis, which operates in Central Europe, lowered its full-year outlook as the market weakened due to the war in Iran. In the so-called pre-registered segment, they highlight a problem where demand for electric vehicles (EVs) has grown at the expense of internal combustion engines (ICE), but there isnât enough EV supply available in the market (and of course, price competition on the buying side is tightening). Granted, they do not share the same markets as Kamux, and no market weakening has been seen in Finland or Sweden during March-April.
Even though I donât follow car advertising particularly closely, Iâve noticed the TV commercials from various car dealerships: Saka emphasizes quality control, while Rinta-Jouppi focuses on service and meeting customer needs. Kamuxâs message is simply that they have cars for sale and also physical stores. Perhaps they should rethink their messaging a bit before they start burning money on advertising.
Could these outbursts and generalizations be moved to the âpersonal experiencesâ thread, and preferably include a couple of facts there as well, especially since these same arguments have been written 700 times over the last 3 years.
Apologies for this zero-info post as well, so this should also be removed from here. I have not invested in Kamux.
Can a former growth story of the Helsinki Stock Exchange become a favorite once again, or is it facing a long and slow decline?
Kamuxâs share price has melted by about 25 percent in a year, and the recent Q1 results offered little comfort at the headline level, as revenue declined and adjusted operating profit turned negative. Markets and analysts are now viewing the company with a great deal of caution.
But when you scratch beneath the surface, the report contains one critical figure that reveals the company has made a U-turn in its strategy. Volume is no longer being sought at any cost; instead, the focus is on profitability.
In the video, we dissect Kamuxâs current state: We look behind the numbers, analyze the return of founder Juha Kalliokoski as CEO, discuss the losing streaks in Germany and Sweden, and evaluate whether the stock is already so cheap that a risk-hungry investor should strike.
Key themes of the video:
Strategic U-turn: Why is the increase in gross margin per car the most important figure in the report?
International deadweight: Are Finns sinking in Germany again? Should the foreign operations just be sold off?
Management roulette and insider buys: Kalliokoski returned to the helm and loaded up on shares â what does this signal to the market?
Balance sheet health vs. bankruptcy fears: Is the financial crisis real, or is the market just suffering from a general lack of confidence?
Summary for the investor: Positives: Gross margin per car is growing clearly, indebtedness is falling, the equity ratio has improved, and inventory has been consciously increased for the peak season. Negatives: Germany remains a significant expense, volumes are stalling, and ambitious long-term targets are still very far from the current performance level.
Letâs keep in mind, however, that this change already happened a year ago, meaning it has been reflected in the figures since Q2â25. At the same time, operating profit has continued to decline, so that strategy hasnât proven to be a silver bullet either. In fact, as early as the turn of the year, the company stated that they should start pursuing a bit more growth again.
In Taloussanomat behind a paywall: TalouselÀmÀ reports: Auto giants Saka, Kamux, and Hedin have purchased imported cars from a company suspected of aggravated crimes
Can you say, @JLo1, whether J Rinta-Jouppi Oy has purchased cars from the shop in question? Since that article is behind a paywall⊠I was just wondering if the tax/customs guys came up empty-handed at Rinta-Jouppi, where they had collected laptops and phones from the staff for the investigation?
Secondly, itâs unfortunate to notice that the âroyalâ Hedin has also been duped in their purchasesâŠ
Itâs a good thing that the authorities are making sure that tax payments in this particular food chain are being sorted out.
The faith of Kamuxâs hundred largest owners in our shared âpatientâ has not wavered.
Joona and Tommi Laakkonen have increased their holdings, as has Zeroman Oy (Aki Pyysing & Mrs. Airaksinen).
Will we see a turnaround in the car trade now that weâve won the Ice Hockey World Championship gold?
Here are the comments from Rauli and Thomas regarding the performance of the car market in May.
May was weak in the Finnish car market, which was particularly emphasized in the used car segment. The order backlogs of car dealerships, which grew during the early part of the year, supported first-time registrations of new cars, but even those remained slightly below the weak level of the previous year in May. In our view, excessive conclusions about the development of consumer behavior should not be drawn based on a single month. Due to inflationary pressures caused by the conflict in Iran, consumer behavior should be monitored particularly closely regarding higher price point purchases.
Population aging and urbanization will ensure that, on average, sales volumes continue to trend downward. The only thing that could reverse this direction is a decline in car qualityâmeaning a shorter life cycleâwhich would force people to buy or trade them in more frequently.
Itâs great that Enel has put more âskin in the gameâ
He already knows now what we will hear sometime late this summerâŠ
Even though May was sluggish in the used car market, at least Kamuxâs inventory is at the right price point; the rows are filled with vehicles for the average Joe.
Having been on the road exceptionally much lately, I wonder when these Finnish cars will finally collapse from old age? Driving is still a âmegatrendââitâs very popular even though fuel prices have risen.
An interesting acquisition from Saka; they are expanding into maintenance services by acquiring a small company called Suomen Autohuolto. (I couldnât find a press release on Sakaâs website, but I received one via email). The revenue of the acquired company is just under 25 MEUR, so it adds only a couple of percent to Sakaâs total revenue, but it is a strategically interesting move. The company states that this is part of their strategy to expand into service business and thus be more present throughout the entire automotive lifecycle.
Those who have followed Kamux might remember that this is the same topic Pajuharju spoke about when joining Kamux 2-3 years ago, but the company didnât manage to make any significant moves in this area (certainly partly because acute business problems demanded all the attention).
Many Kamux locations have a Mekonomen service center right next to them. Iâve also been thinking that from a lifecycle perspective for certain types of used goods, it would be logical to inspect, buy, recondition, sell, offer a quality guarantee, and then repeat this process multiple times with the same familiar retail customer in the future. Both are quite well-branded and widespread companies in the Nordics.
Pajuharju took a rather aggressive leap forward when he started by declaring Kamux an environmental and circular economy company. There are just a few milestones in between before a used car showroom dealer becomes a modern ESG machine.
Positives: Gross margin per car is growing clearly, indebtedness is falling, the equity ratio has improved, and inventory has been consciously increased for the peak season.
Negatives: Germany remains a significant expense, volumes are stalling, and ambitious long-term targets are still very far from the current performance level.
