Here are Aapeli’s comments from Kalmar’s pre-silent period analyst and investor call. 
The company commented that demand sentiment remained relatively stable during the past quarter compared to the outlook provided in connection with the Q3 results. For the current year, various market forecasts indicate moderate growth, and overall, the situation largely aligned with our previous expectations.
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At the same time, the target price is also being hiked upwards.
Megatrends are expected to support the development of Kalmar’s target markets, and we assess that the company is well-positioned for these. We forecast the company to achieve clear earnings growth in the coming years through the gradual strengthening of the market situation. The stock’s valuation is at a reasonable level, but in our view, the forecasted earnings growth makes the risk-adjusted expected return of this high-quality company sufficiently attractive. Accordingly, we reiterate our Accumulate (lisää) recommendation and raise our target price to 47 euros (prev. 39 €), reflecting long-term forecast upgrades as well as revisions to our acceptable valuation.
The same trend has been observed among other analysts:
Here are Aapeli’s preview comments as Kalmar reports its results on Friday, Feb 13.
We expect Kalmar’s order intake to have picked up clearly after a softer third quarter and revenue to have been supported by large equipment deliveries scheduled for the end of the year. The focus of the report is on the 2026 guidance as well as more detailed market comments.
The earnings of the engineering company, which manufactures cargo handling equipment, grew and orders exceeded expectations. The company’s guidance for this year is cautious.
Kalmar financial statement release January–December 2025: Continued successful performance in 2025, record orders and solid revenue growth in the fourth quarter
Orders received increased to a record EUR 511 (486) million during the quarter, driven by several significant equipment orders
Strong revenue growth of 11 percent to EUR 487 (440) million
Overall demand remained stable despite market uncertainty and trade tensions
Comparable operating profit improved to EUR 60.5 (53.1) million, representing 12.4 (12.1) percent of revenue
An estimated EUR 34 million in annual gross efficiency improvements has been achieved in the business performance development initiative
Cash flow from operations increased by 76 percent to EUR 112.8 (64.2) million, positively impacted by a decrease in inventories
The Board of Directors proposes to the Annual General Meeting that a dividend of EUR 1.09 (0.99) per class A share and EUR 1.10 (1.00) per outstanding class B share be paid for the financial year 2025
Guidance for 2026: Kalmar estimates its comparable operating profit margin to be above 12.5 percent in 2026.
The figures presented in this financial statement release are based on Kalmar Corporation’s audited financial statements for 2025.
Orders received increased by 5 percent and were EUR 511 (486) million
Order book was EUR 977 million (31 Dec 2024: EUR 955 million)
Revenue increased by 11 percent and was EUR 487 (440) million
Eco-efficient solutions1 product category revenue was 43 (41) percent of the Group’s revenue, increased by 14 percent and was EUR 209 (182) million
Operating profit was EUR 60 (39) million or 12.3 (8.8) percent of revenue. Operating profit includes EUR 0 (-14) million in items affecting comparability
Comparable operating profit was EUR 61 (53) million or 12.4 (12.1) percent of revenue, an increase of 14 percent
Cash flow from operations before financial items and taxes was EUR 113 (64) million
Result for the period was EUR 45 (27) million
Undiluted earnings per share was EUR 0.71 (0.42)
Interest-bearing net debt / EBITDA2 was 0.0x (0.3x).
Orders received increased by 8 percent and were EUR 1,817 (1,679) million
Order book was EUR 977 million (31 Dec 2024: EUR 955 million)
Revenue increased by 1 percent and was EUR 1,741 (1,720) million
Eco-efficient solutions product category revenue was 44 (41) percent of the Group’s revenue, increased by 9 percent and was EUR 763 (698) million
Operating profit was EUR 220 (174) million or 12.7 (10.1) percent of revenue. Operating profit includes EUR -3 (-42) million in items affecting comparability
Comparable operating profit was EUR 223 (217) million or 12.8 (12.6) percent of revenue, an increase of 3.0 percent
Cash flow from operations before financial items and taxes was EUR 246 (249) million
Result for the period was EUR 163 (128) million
Undiluted earnings per share was EUR 2.55 (1.99).3
Kalmar estimates its comparable operating profit margin to be above 12.5 percent in 2026.
In 2025, Kalmar continued its successful performance. It was also a year of geopolitical turmoil and trade tensions. In these challenging conditions, Kalmar demonstrated resilience by improving its profitability while simultaneously promoting industry-leading sustainability innovations. We can look back on a year where our ability to adapt quickly to new circumstances, our focus on becoming a service-centric company, and our commitment to continuous innovation were key. These efforts led to strong growth in the order book, stable revenue, and improved profitability.
The fourth quarter was a strong conclusion to the year with record order intake and solid revenue growth. The fourth quarter order intake was EUR 511 (486) million, which is 5 percent more than the previous year, with growth driven by several significant equipment orders. Thanks to good order development, our order book grew to EUR 977 (955) million.
Revenue increased by 11 percent to EUR 487 (440) million. Comparable operating profit was EUR 60.5 (53.1) million thanks to higher volumes and successful cost management. The comparable operating profit margin was 12.4 (12.1) percent in the quarter. Our balance sheet has strengthened further. At the end of 2025, our interest-bearing net debt totaled EUR 5 (76) million. The gearing ratio was 0.0 (0.3), which is clearly below our long-term target (maximum 2x) and allows for good financial flexibility. In the business performance development initiative, we achieved approximately EUR 34 million in annual gross efficiency improvements by the end of the fourth quarter.
The macroeconomic environment remained uncertain throughout the quarter. Despite this, overall demand for Kalmar’s products and services remained relatively stable compared to the previous quarter. Order intake increased in the Americas, decreased in EMEA, and remained essentially unchanged in APAC. It is particularly encouraging to see that Services order intake and sales continued to develop favorably across all geographical regions. Our growing global installed base of 70,000 units serves as an excellent foundation on our journey toward becoming a service-driven company.
During the year, we continued to invest in securing the future of our business through several partnership announcements and product launches. Several important milestones were reached in electrification during the fourth quarter. We launched a comprehensive new range of DC charging solutions in collaboration with Kempower and SINEXCEL and introduced a new generation lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery solution for our electric straddle carrier. Demand for low-carbon and carbon-neutral products is reflected in our Eco-efficient solutions product category sales, which rose to 43 (41) percent of total revenue in the quarter.
Looking toward 2026, we guide our comparable operating profit margin to be above 12.5 percent. We expect geopolitical challenges and trade tensions to continue, creating some degree of uncertainty in our business environment also in 2026. However, we remain committed to our strategic priorities and driving sustainable growth by leading the industry with automation and electrification innovations, expanding our Services business and presence, and striving for operational excellence to ensure long-term value creation.
Thank you to all 5,300 Kalmar employees and partners for making every move count and creating value for all stakeholders in 2025. I also want to thank our customers and shareholders for their continued trust and support for Kalmar.
Aapeli spoke with Kalmar’s CEO Sami Niiranen about how the company is doing.
Topics:
00:00 Introduction
00:08 Q4 and full-year summary
02:05 Drivers behind orders
03:36 Announcement of a significant order
04:48 Margin development in services
06:13 Development by geography
07:55 Development by customer industry
09:35 Demand outlook
11:10 Guidance
12:31 Research and development
13:55 AI benefits
14:47 Capital allocation
16:48 Main themes for 2026
I couldn’t find a Finnish press release for this right away. There is a lot of potential for the maintenance and service business as well in orders of this magnitude.
Here is a company report on Kalmar from Aapeli following the Q4 results release
Kalmar’s Q4 results slightly missed our expectations due to margin development. On the other hand, orders rising to record levels wiped the floor with both our and the consensus forecasts. The company’s market situation, meanwhile, had remained stable, and it expected the situation to continue somewhat similarly at the beginning of the year. The guidance provided for the current year was, in our opinion, once again conservative, but based on the company’s comments, it indicates floor-level development. Reflecting the overall picture, forecast changes for the coming years remained minor. We see our projected earnings growth continuing to lift the risk-adjusted expected return of this high-quality company to a sufficient level.
Quote from the report:
Minor forecast changes
Reflecting on the report, the provided guidance, and the company’s comments, we made only very small adjustments to our assumptions for the coming years. In light of the order development, we slightly raised our revenue forecasts. In our opinion, one should not draw overly far-reaching conclusions from the results of a single quarter, especially regarding the development of large orders. Based on the actual development, we slightly lowered our margin forecasts for Services, while raising those for Equipment. At the same time, we made small adjustments to our group cost forecasts. In light of the overall picture, however, our earnings forecasts for the coming years remained almost unchanged. We now expect the 2026 adjusted EBIT margin to settle at 13.3% (prev. 13.4%). We have reviewed the background of our forecasts for the coming years in more detail in our recent extensive report.
Aapeli and Tomi discussed Kalmar regarding Q4
Topics:
00:00 Introduction
00:15 Where are we in the cycle?
04:29 Good potential to outgrow the market
07:13 Profitability at a good level
09:58 Valuation relies on earnings growth materializing
12:12 Which risks, if materialized, could cause the stock to explode?
A significant order for Kalmar in Belgium.
Tekniikan Maailma’s article on Kalmar’s container handlers and the automation and electrification of ports:
A few excerpts from the article:
Cargo handling in ports is rapidly automating. Driver-assisted systems are commonplace even in container handlers, but in large automated terminals, human drivers are already disappearing.
Accidents in automated driving are extremely rare. Because of this, automated terminals receive discounts on their insurance premiums.
Another megatrend in work machines is electrification. In this too, ports are far ahead of road traffic.
Currently, 85 percent of the container handlers supplied by Kalmar are diesel-electric. This has reduced the machines’ 11-liter diesel engines to 5-liter ones, and cut fuel consumption by up to 40 percent.
Now many ports are already transitioning to fully electric fleets.
Here are Aapeli’s excellent comments from Kalmar’s analyst and investor call before the silent period.
The company commented that the demand environment has remained unchanged so far compared to the outlook given in connection with the Q4 results, despite the instability caused by the situation in the Middle East. Various market forecasts had also remained almost unchanged. According to the company, if the situation prolongs, cost inflation could negatively affect the global economy and customer activity. Kalmar will publish its Q1 results on May 5.
Kalmar will deliver a total of seven straddle carriers to a New Zealand customer.
The order was booked in Kalmar’s Q1 2026 orders, and delivery is scheduled for Q4 2026. The company did not disclose the value of the order in its announcement.
Aapeli provides a preview, as Kalmar is set to release its Q1 report next Tuesday.
We expect Kalmar’s order intake to have remained at a good level, though down slightly from the comparison period. We forecast the company’s result to have risen significantly, supported by deliveries from the order book. In the report, our main points of interest are comments regarding market developments and the potential impact of the Middle East situation on the company.
Kalmar’s Interim Report January–March 2026: Stable Sales Growth Despite Challenges in the Services Segment
Orders received decreased to EUR 451 (480) million, due to a strong comparison period
Sales increased by 5 percent to EUR 420 (398) million
Sales for the Eco Portfolio1 remained at a good level, but orders received for fully electric equipment remained moderate
Overall demand remained stable amidst the volatile geopolitical situation
Profitability improved overall but weakened in the Services segment
Comparable operating profit in the Equipment segment increased to 12.6 (11.6) percent, but decreased to 16.0 (19.0) percent in the Services segment
Successful implementation of the operational performance improvement program continued
Good cash flow from operations and a strong balance sheet
Aapeli interviewed Kalmar’s CEO Sami Niiranen.
Topics:
00:00 Introduction
00:08 Q1 Highlights
02:17 Profitability challenges in the Services business
05:31 Impact of tariffs
07:24 Market situation
09:53 U.S. market
11:12 Impact of the Middle East conflict
14:03 Electrification of the equipment fleet
Kalmar’s CEO Sami Niiranen is coming to ROAST 
next Monday!
Spicy questions, and of course any others, are more than welcome.
Aapeli has published a new equity research report on Kalmar following the Q1 results
Kalmar’s Q1 figures fell broadly short of our expectations, even though earnings improved compared to the prior-year period. Development was particularly overshadowed by challenges in the service business. Meanwhile, the company expects its market situation to remain stable despite uncertainties. Our earnings forecasts for the coming years were slightly lowered due to negative forecast adjustments made to the service division. However, we view yesterday’s share price decline as excessive and reiterate our Accumulate recommendation for the stock, but lower our target price to EUR 46 (prev. EUR 48) in line with the forecast changes.
Management is stocking up. That’s always nice to see! €400,000!
Transaction date: 2026-05-06
Venue: NASDAQ HELSINKI LTD (XHEL)
Instrument type: SHARE
ISIN: FI4000571054
Nature of the transaction: ACQUISITION
Transaction details
(1): Volume: 9,422 Unit price: 42.28 EUR
(2): Volume: 78 Unit price: 41.9 EUR
Aggregated transactions (2):
Volume: 9,500 Average price: 42.27688 EUR
Reminder!
The Roast starts today at 2:00 PM! 
