Danske updated their recommendation to DKK 110 today 
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The project portfolio includes the so-called pig vaccine INV274, which appears to be significantly further along than INV412, at least based on Intervacc’s own description. An interesting point is that the project involves EU funding for its development work. The collaboration partner in the project is the Scottish company Moredun Scientific, which seems to be a product development and safety company in veterinary research projects. What might be the timeframe for the project, i.e., when will it reach the clinical phase? Its duration will probably be in the range of 12-18 months or even longer – it seems to depend on whether the intention is also to determine the duration of the vaccine’s protective effect during that time.
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My own, completely gut feeling is that developing a new vaccine can easily take 5 years before sales, and around 3 years would therefore be a really good situation for the timeline of the next vaccine coming to market. It would be great if the situation developed in the latter direction; it would at least be easy to continue owning the stock for the long run, as has been the case so far.
Came just in time from Danske. Harpooning the market potential of the pig vaccine is also an interesting thing; I wonder if Danske had already managed to address that in its new analysis.
While awaiting the approval of the horse vaccine, the tension is building. But an added twist comes from a science competition; an interesting study from China popped up in a knowledge search. Researchers there are already developing a competitor to Strangvac. Although they are only in mouse trials, they are aiming for an effective horse vaccine. It remains to be seen how their project will fare; it could be that it works in mice, but if it doesn’t protect horses, then that kind of vaccine is as useless as silverware on a smoke diver.
Optimized GAPDH-truncated immunogen of Streptococcus equi elicits an enhanced immune response and provides effective protection in a mouse model. Vet Microbiol 2021.
“However, the commercial costs of manufacturing this vaccine composed of the five fusion proteins is prohibitively high and improvements in the development of new antigen for strangles vaccine are required. Therefore, in our study, we choose a new antigen that differed from Strangvac antigens and identified a suitable fragment of GAPDH that could evoke strong protective immune responses.”
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Interview with Intervacc CEO (in Swedish) available as a video on April 15, discussing topics such as the retail price of the vaccine, production costs, and market size.
As a side note, it seems that veterinarians are following the vaccine issue with interest. A UK equine veterinary journal recently featured an article on strangles, which also included preliminary information about Strangvac—though the author wasn’t entirely informed and “bit the dust” by claiming that the vaccine requires repeated doses every few months. Research papers, on the other hand, have stated that the first dose is followed by a second dose after 4 weeks, and then annually.
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The application for the Strangvac vaccine began processing at the EMA on March 18, 2020, and at that time, it was estimated that the permit application would take a year to process. The processing time (EMA’s timeframe) is 210 days. Since then, in January (108 days ago), Intervacc responded to the EMA’s questions. The company’s forecast for the decision is “during Q2,” meaning the deadline is the end of next month. So now there are just under 60 days of anxious waiting. I assume the company has positioned its production and marketing machinery so that if and when the green light is given, sales operations will start quickly.
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Has Mr. Market lost interest in whether Polle Konikaulus’s vaccine project will rise to the tribunal to declare the joyful news of its marketing authorization? The share price seems to have plummeted by 21% in a month, even though the tension is only building as the decision deadline approaches.
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A major shareholder and board member has sold about half of their shares. The CEO brushed this off as “normal development” and hinted(?) that the shares went to an institutional investor.
I’m not worried myself; the cash cow, aka. the minting license for North America, is still years away. Plus, there’s the bonus lottery ticket of cattle and pig vaccines.
https://www.aktiespararna.se/analysguiden/nyheter/intervacc-storagare-salt-halva-innehavet-ny
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When is Intervacc’s horse vaccine approval expected to be decided? Shouldn’t it be around June?
I wonder if this has already been baked into the stock price or if there’s still room for short-term gains.
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I would be surprised if EMA approval significantly boosted the stock price in the short term. The approval has been strongly anticipated for Q2 for a while now. Of course, a 10% fluctuation in either direction is quite common for this stock.
However, the potential downside caused by a complication in the approval process is greater.
Danske Bank’s target price was probably 110 SEK, so in the big picture, there should still be room for upside if things roll forward well.
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Intervacc held its annual general meeting a week ago, where apparently nothing unexpected occurred.
Below is a link to the CEO’s presentation from the meeting, where he once again reiterated that the
Strangvac project is progressing as expected. Of course, investors are quite excited right now as EMA’s
decision on the regulatory approval of Strangvac is expected by the end of Q2.
There are only two weeks and a bit left… Now I already feel like rushing things along with the folk song lyrics ‘hummani hei, hummani hei, hopotiti hummani hei’
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It finally came! 
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It’s very interesting that the company mentioned in the same release that it can also develop other vaccines with the same technology: “We continue to work with the same technology to develop more vaccines to improve animal health, most notably against Staphylococcus aureus in cows and Streptococcus suis in pigs.”*, stated Dr. Andrew Waller, Chief Scientific Officer at Intervacc."
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The fact that the technology is suitable for developing other vaccines has been known for a long time, and thus it is already baked into the company’s market value, which at the time of writing is SEK 4298.75 million.
Yes, indeed. Of course, there are uncertainties and development is ongoing. But the most essential thing is that with the approval of the horse vaccine, the projects in the pig and cattle sectors will gain more momentum. In other words, the steps to success are becoming clearer on the path towards a success story.
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Did I miss some news, or what on earth just happened here?
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Nothing special, the marketing authorization has been taken for granted and is already priced into the stock, which means that the official marketing authorization may not push the stock price up very much anymore. Some investors are now cashing in profits so they can move them to new targets.
The EU Commission has granted marketing authorization for Strangvac!
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Well, well! That stage has now been reached. Here’s a link to the announcement. It’s worth mentioning that it took 20 years to develop the vaccine, so it’s quite a feat. It provides 94% protection after three doses. It can be stored at refrigerator temperature. Now, let’s quickly get that shot into the horse.
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The Norwegian Medicines Agency (NoMA) has granted marketing authorization for Strangvac in Norway.
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