Inderes Coffee Room (Part 5)

This thread is a continuation of the comment: Inderesin kahvihuone (Osa 4) - #10391 käyttäjältä kvatchero - Sijoittaminen - Inderes forum.

Previous threads:

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If gas turbines are built to run on biogas, then their operation is still clean. And the operating ratio is probably not exactly 35/65, when considering that the alternatives are not just wind power or gas turbines, but all other forms of production are included.

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https://twitter.com/minna_kuu/status/1546920112405594114?t=xiU1qeQCyqfRF7-gpmvRrw&s=19

I’m terribly embarrassed to try and mansplain inflation to Danske’s chief analyst, but I don’t believe Finnish purchasing behavior has much bearing on the current inflation?

Edit: meaning, if Finns had more money left after taxes, it’s unlikely that current inflation would spiral out of control?

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Oho, the fifth Coffee Room thread has now been opened! :open_mouth: On behalf of the administration, I once again thank the community for how relevant, fun, and content-rich the discussions in these coffee rooms have been. Over 20,000 users on the Forum, and the discussion has remained very sensible, especially considering the number of users. My humble thanks! :pray: :slightly_smiling_face:


@Kaisa_Vanha-Perttula wrote a good article in the Investment School about mistakes in investing. :slight_smile: I think I’ve made all the mistakes mentioned in the article… surprise, surprise. :cowboy_hat_face:

In the short term, good stock returns are more a result of random market fluctuations than successful stock picking. Feedback on one’s investment success is only received after a long time, and therefore success should be weighed as a marathon run of years, not sudden sprints.


Now there’s a very high-quality article about options, which is a very unfamiliar world for me. Of course, I know something about the topic, but a lot of new information came in a clear format. The article was written by @Miika_Purola. :+1:

The discussion thread about options has been very quiet, but based on this article, it is easier to continue the discussion about options. The thread can be found here:

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Why don’t you believe current inflation trends will affect Finnish purchasing behavior?

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Fifth coffee room thread :face_with_monocle: My spouse might be right, and I spend way too much time here :grinning_face_with_smiling_eyes:

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Where does this come from? If certain commissions have been agreed upon, how could Kamux unilaterally worsen them? In my opinion, this does not belong in the company thread if it’s just something you heard somewhere. @Mututuntuma

I couldn’t copy your message from the previous coffee room here, and I don’t know about car industry contracts either. But having worked as a supervisor in the telecom operator industry, I know that commissions from subscription sales, etc., varied quarterly. This applied to both brick-and-mortar stores and stands.

Commissions are not, so to speak, written into employment contracts, and rewards for a subscription could change quarterly, for example, from €15 → €20 and €27 → €22.

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I meant that purchasing behavior is unlikely to have a radical impact on the current inflation rate? Not all money goes hand to mouth; some could even be saved. Of course, inflation has an impact on purchasing behavior.

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Yep. In that case, it’s a fair game. :slight_smile:

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Without a doubt, an income tax cut would increase purchasing power. Purchasing power increases demand, and demand increases prices.

However, the Left Alliance is playing a double game here, because purchases made with state money and income transfers also increase demand and inflation. A key thesis of the Left Alliance’s economic thinking is that income transfers to low-income earners particularly increase demand, while high-income earners save more.

If this is truly the case, there is also reason to assume that income transfers to low-income earners, such as the unemployed (whether they are job seekers or not), particularly increase inflation. At the same time, they also exacerbate the labor shortage, as incentives to enter the workforce decrease. A labor shortage, in turn, increases wage inflation.

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This sounds like an ideological zero-sum game: you have 100€ more but everything becomes 100€ more expensive, so isn’t it better for the state to keep your money and do something nice with it? Is there data to support the ability of tax increases to affect inflation?

But that 100€ doesn’t “disappear” if the state or municipality keeps it; it’s used for something else. A citizen might even SAVE their money, the state rarely saves.

And of the components that accelerate inflation, which of energy, fuel, or raw materials would increase in price if citizens had more money? In principle, all of them, but competition prevents the full compensation of increased purchasing power into prices. Currently, businesses are passing increased costs onto prices, even though consumers don’t have more money.

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Indeed, the state hardly economizes, and citizens know better than the state what increases their well-being. Here’s a couple of years old, but still very relevant column by Kalle Isokallio, which illustrates well why the Finnish State’s budget cannot be balanced by raising income tax (or a millionaire tax).

“If all the money from everyone earning over 3,000 euros were taken, the state would gain just over two billion in additional income. Even after that, the state would still go into debt by about five billion a year.”

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If Konecranes’ negative forecast was subdued, Orion’s positive forecast is another story. Revenue and profit are expected to significantly exceed the previous year’s figures according to guidance. One would imagine that prices below 36e, around mid-June, won’t be seen again anytime soon.

The Nubeqa news in February, in my opinion, caused the share price to rise too quickly, so I decided to wait and see if that surge would subside. Well, it did subside (of course, the war also helped curb the rise), and the stock could be bought at the same price as before the news. Before this positive news, there was a good 20% rise in a month, and the direction seems clear for at least a while from now on. The best buying opportunities ultimately passed me by, but that doesn’t stop me from saluting Orion’s excellent performance in a difficult global situation.

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"The one thing that I think could be a risk out of the blue…the one thing the market could get wrong… is a whopping great carbon tax out of the blue…. That is possible.” This is the most important point: he’s arguing that markets have not yet contemplated pricing in the externality, likely as no one believes that it will happen. Put another way, the ‘risk’ to markets, which are focused primarily on the shorter term, is not from the long-term physical damages of climate change; it’s from the possibility that we’ll actually listen to the experts and do something about it today by regulating the externality.

I have been waiting for this for a long time.

It was an excellent article overall.

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The numbers here seem a bit off, even if it doesn’t really change the point of the story, but I think obvious errors should be corrected.

If we look at the 2020 data.

Those earning over 3,000 euros would correspond to those earning 35,000 euros a year or more in that table. These groups pay 76.8% of the collected taxes. The state’s earned income tax revenue was approximately 5.6 billion euros. If the state’s tax revenue almost tripled from this group, which already pays three-fourths, then it would certainly be well over two billion.

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I admit that I didn’t check Isokallio’s figures. It remains somewhat unclear what Isokallio means, for example, by saying that the income tax percentage “will be raised to one hundred.” Marginal tax? One hundred percent is also not available without going over the earned amount, because municipalities also collect their share.

In any case, such large increases would be practically impossible, and Isokallio’s point that the state budget deficit cannot be covered by raising taxes (at least not solely), but that cuts are necessary, is completely valid. It may well be that both need to be done.

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I joined the Stockmann hype train :face_with_peeking_eye:

When moon? @Wallet_Nahlroos @Sijoittaja-alokas @Pohjolan_Eka

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Alright, sounds good, see you at the E-Mercy deal :euro_banknote:

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This is starting to remind me of the good old Hyzon days. :grimacing:

Somehow I got old déjà vu feelings. :open_mouth:

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About inflation. We in Finland do not live in a closed economy. Product prices are mostly determined globally, and an increase in domestic demand does not affect them much. Some domestic products (cloudberries, Karelian pasties) and especially services are a different matter. Thus, the growth of domestic purchasing power does not mainly transfer to prices. In a small country like Finland, the growth of purchasing power does not accelerate inflation very much. The helicopter money and full employment practiced in the USA during the COVID-19 pandemic accelerated inflation more.

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