Inderes Coffee Room (Part 2)

Since I don’t master Python, I’m asking instead of testing it myself. How did a portfolio with only “buy” recommendations and other weights at zero perform?

Can you tell me if those dates always correspond to the day when it’s possible to buy? If a target price is updated on Sunday, is the purchase price Friday’s closing price (without the Inderes effect) or Monday’s price? It would also be interesting to know if it’s better to buy immediately at the opening price or only at the closing price.

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It’s no coincidence, considering the control aspect, that this currency is being urgently implemented in China, whereas in Western countries, central banks are conducting research and are relatively cautious with the initiative.

Although the idea, as I understand it, is to keep the exchange rate stable against the yuan as a “stable coin,” I believe these features can be modified and adjusted. For example, if the Communist Party wants to stimulate consumption, what if the digital currency had a “best before” date?

Perhaps the old, reviled, but actually quite stable FIAT money still has its role..

Addition: Continuing about communism or a complete planned economy.

One of the biggest weaknesses of a planned economy is the lack of information. Paradoxically, a market economy has much more planning, as every firm and consumer plans their own expenses because they naturally have the best information and visibility into their own needs.

Artificial intelligence, data, and for example, this digital currency could partly solve that problem, considering the agenda of the Chinese Communist Party. The country has never officially rejected communism; there has just been a decades-long “NEP” period in between to allow for modernization.. :sweat_smile:

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I don’t have a cash option in the code right now, so it always has to be invested somewhere. A “buy-only” solution like this would leave all the money in cash in situations where none of the portfolio companies receive a “buy” recommendation. On average, if we assume that prices are constantly rising a little, one could imagine that a strategy where investments are held in cash would lose to a strategy where investments are evenly diversified across a relatively large number of companies (Add+Reduce covers the majority of companies). This shows that from November 2018 to December 2019, there was a long period where this portfolio did not receive a single “buy” recommendation. The “buy” recommendation is thus shown as a large rectangle.


From this graph, one could also conclude (the black curve is the difference between Inderes and B&H) that at times when there are “buy” recommendations, investing according to Inderes’ recommendations outperforms the Buy&Hold strategy, but if there are no “buy” recommendations, the result is +/-0 or even weaker.
For my own case, i.e., trades made within the insurance basket with those 14 stocks, I would think it might be smarter to invest those interim periods when there are no “buy” recommendations into a good fund.

I have used Adjclose prices, i.e., closing prices adjusted for dividends, splits, etc. Good point, by the way, that recommendations can come, for example, on a Sunday. I missed a dozen trades in the calculation. However, they mostly fell between “Add-Reduce”, and that bug doesn’t seem to have much sexual significance.

This table now shows trades such that if a recommendation came on a Sunday or even on May Day Eve, the trade occurs at the closing price of the next trading day.
I also included the possibility of excluding “Add” companies and investing only in “Reduce” and “Buy” stocks. With this small data set, this would even yield a better (!) result than investing in “Add” and “Buy” recommendations.

This can probably be calculated from other data, but that’s for later. I would assume that “of course” the closing price is always slightly more expensive. But if you don’t switch to cash, you also get a better price on average when selling at closing prices. Here, with these recommendations, the assumption is that prices move in opposite directions, so one can probably then take the calculation in the direction that it would be advisable to make trades immediately in the morning. I need to think about how to do that calculation when I have more time. In principle, open and close prices are also available for trading days.
Edit. Oh right, and if you are looking for the effect of the Inderes effect, perhaps you should use smaller companies than these large companies so that the effect can be found amidst the noise.

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A disclaimer regarding this: the B&H (Buy and Hold) strategy with these stocks (59.8%) seems to have outperformed OMXHGI (46.54%) between 2018-2012.

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With valuation levels at their peak in the US, Nordic companies are generating more interest… On the VC side, there’s a clear interest in digital/SaaS, etc. This also explains why we’ve seen strong growth in our own positions since autumn.

https://nordic9.com/blog/what-you-need-to-know-about-the-nordic-investment-market-in-q1/

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Earlier in this thread, I mentioned Taaler’s new Mikro Kruunu (Micro Crown) fund, which invests in Scandinavian small-cap companies. Now, the top 10 investments are visible. Select the “Holdings” tab.

https://www.taalerivarainhoito.com/sijoitusratkaisut/osakesijoitukset/mikro-kruunu

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Sweden seems to be dominating small-cap companies, as all of Mikro Kruunu’s (Micro Crown’s) TOP 8 rankings are Swedish companies.

Among Mikro Kruunu’s (Micro Crown’s) top 10 companies, forum threads were found for four companies:

Of the remaining six companies, four are Swedish and two are Norwegian. I have listed brief basic information for all of them. There may be errors; more detailed information can be found via the links.

Knowit AB

  • Investor Relations – finansiell information | Knowit
  • Operates in Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Finland, and Germany.
  • Three business areas:
    • Knowit Experience focuses on digital customer experience.
    • Knowit Insight offers management consulting.
    • Knowit Solutions provides software development for companies and public organizations.
  • Listed on the Stockholm Stock Exchange in 1997, and in January 2018, it moved from the Small Cap list to the Mid Cap list.
  • Followed by four analysts: ABG Sundal Collier, Handelsbanken, SEB, and Pareto.
  • Year End report 2020.pdf

MedCap AB

  • https://medcap.se/investerare/investerare/
  • A company on the Stockholm Stock Exchange’s Mid Cap list, which “focuses on financially sound Life Science companies with significant development potential.”
  • Two business areas: MedTech and Specialty Pharma.
  • Companies in the MedTech business area primarily sell various medical products and services: Abilia, Cardiolex Medical, Inpac, Multi-ply.
  • Companies in the Specialty Pharma business area develop and sell medicines: Unimedic.
  • Moved to the Stockholm Mid Cap list at the beginning of 2021.
  • MedCap Q4 2020 presentation.pdf (in English)

NCap Group AB

Rugvista Group AB

Elektroimportøren AS

SelfStorage Group ASA

  • www.selfstoragegroup.no/investor-relations/
  • Small storage company listed on the Oslo Stock Exchange in 2017, with over 100,000 m² of rentable space.
  • Operates under two different brands: City Self Storage and OK Minilager.
  • City Self-Storage is an “urban concept” operating in Oslo, Viken, Stavanger, Trondheim, Stockholm, and Copenhagen.
  • OK Minilager offers self-service storage in the Norwegian market.
  • Q4 2020 presentation 16.2.2021.pdf (in English)
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There, they explain quite well why the emphasis is so heavily on Swedish companies.

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In addition to China, Russia’s financial world has also been turbulent:

In short, Russians fear that the currency reform will remove a zero from the value of money. This would be a tragedy for Russians who have saved for their retirement. It is rumored that the Central Bank of Russia wants to reduce the amount of Rubles in circulation. Russian authorities have rejected all claims.

China’s cryptocurrency is a frighteningly effective tool for citizen surveillance and monetary policy control. The value of money can even have zeros removed from it just based on feeling.

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Highly recommended reading. Very relevant considerations from the questioner, and of course, Juha’s analytical answer and thoughts on the topic.

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Kela has apparently shortened the student loan by €6200 as I graduated more or less on time, good start to the week :rocket:

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I wonder if my expectations are a bit too high… A new message notification appeared in the Arocell thread, and my heart pounded a couple of times while I was opening the thread :face_with_hand_over_mouth: And then it was just a link to introduce a new guy :rofl:

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image
It looks like the model portfolio has broken the 500 TEUR mark! :partying_face: :coffee:

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Ten-bagger in under ten years, not bad :smirk:

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Yes, really good for this group of hard-working professionals!

Masse-granny has, however, pulled off the same ten-baggers with Kuutti in just over 12 months, but
these damn “buy and forget” amateurs are not counted in this competition. Period.

Masse-uncle, FA, my own Kuutti’s only five-baggered, …darn it :angry: :rage: :rage: :angry:

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I wonder what’s causing it. @Verneri_Pulkkinen’s fifteen-minute video “appetite comes with eating” (nälkä kasvaa syödessä) is not available under the Vernerin vartti section, at least for me. It can be found when clicking on the “all video content” tab. Or is the fault on the Viking chief’s side? @Yu_Gong

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It’s probably my oversight for not putting it in the correct category on InderesTV :smiley:

Thanks for noticing, fixed!

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One fanatic is busy in Ukraine, and another is bothering Taiwan, wonder what will come of this.

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Can’t we just be open about salaries? It’s interesting that if one experiences gender-related discrimination, then there is a right. I don’t know if that’s true equality. If we were just open about salaries, we wouldn’t have to snoop around.

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Yes, salary transparency would force employers to clarify tasks and criteria. My opinion is that the base salary and the basic level of a task should be the same, and if one exceeds that, i.e., produces more added value for the company than was envisioned at the time of hiring, then it is appropriate to reward them with a fatter paycheck. A pretty face or broad shoulders should not warrant extra pay anywhere else but in modeling and acting jobs.

And I have worked in teams where a pay cut for a quarter or half a year would have been a good wake-up call for the most burnt-out members; dragging along dead weight is no fun, neither in meetings nor in achieving results.

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