The last few months have been so busy that I haven’t had any time at all to think about investment stuff. Then again, there hasn’t been much of a need, but now about four grand of so-called “spare cash” has been sitting in my son’s account (made a timely exit at the turn of the year), which should be put somewhere to grow. But I’m not really “on the pulse” of anything right now, although good opportunities might be found these days when things are looking quite red in the stock market and, of course, on the faces of the Iranians. I don’t really have time to follow the news feed, but there is definitely all sorts of things going on, so to speak, here and there.
We have a podcast on the books with @Juha_Kinnunen in two weeks, so we can certainly take this as a topic in addition to the market review! 
I can say this much: the atmosphere back then was very different in the sense that nobody really knew anything about small caps. Now it feels like nobody wants to know anything about small caps 
87 Likes
You really have a talent for writing several sentences in a way that makes absolutely no sense 
34 Likes
I wonder if the Margin Girl has been busy making phone calls today?
1 Like
At the same time, Sauli and Mika released an excellent H&V episode. Maybe there is still hope for Helsinki. It felt a bit unpleasant to start listening when the episode was clickbaited with a Dividend theme. Under the surface, however, it turned out that the episode covered the principles of capital allocation! Absolutely brilliant! 
I don’t live under the impression that none of the insiders at Helsinki-listed companies understand how to allocate capital productively. What scares me is that there are still individuals among them who don’t understand the matter. Because every now and then they are allowed to make decisions, and honestly, I would say that in those cases it would almost be better if the person just drew their salary and didn’t show up to work or board meetings.
As a good highlight, the episode also discussed how companies get the shareholders they deserve. If management makes decisions with a short-term focus and creates a lot of hype, the shareholder base will be filled with short-term owners. If management steers the company with a long-term view, the shareholders are presumably also more long-term oriented on average. This also largely dictates how much peace management has to operate and execute their plans. Managing investor expectations is surprisingly important in the end, because overshooting and undershooting in share price development can cause quite a headache for management, which then takes away from everything else. Of course, sometimes management may communicate correctly, but investors just don’t want to listen
17 Likes
An unironic love letter to the Helsinki dividend spring. No need to be checking whether bosses are smelling their own farts and buying back overvalued shares to boost the next quarter just because their own bonus incentives tell them to.
Dividends to the equity savings account (OST), power to the people. Dividends keep rolling in even if I end up in a hospital bed, and the next generation gets the power to decide.
7 Likes
I’ve been getting the feeling from the price drops early this week that the general reason for the decline is likely just profit-taking and selling by those using leverage. Iran is geographically large, of course, but economically it’s the size of a mouse dropping. A sharp drop in something like Nordea because of a conflict on the other side of the world seems silly. I don’t believe Nordea’s value has budged at all, but its price certainly has. Something like Crocs has also dropped significantly, even though I don’t believe the “funny hat wearers” in Iran are major buyers of funny shoes. If they were, the reaction would be quite rational, as there are fewer funny hat owners than there were a week ago. Oil prices have risen, sure, but I don’t see that as a problem. This is definitely a “buy the dip” situation, but obviously not for just anything—you have to buy the few and the chosen. It’s nice that everything is dropping because the number of undervalued companies is growing. Ultimately, it doesn’t matter if your portfolio melts as long as you have faith that your companies’ cash flows will eventually be sufficient relative to your purchase price. If an investor buys based on momentum without regard for value, or goes for lottery tickets, it’s easy to panic when prices drop. In those cases, value is based on what others are willing to pay rather than how much value the companies create for their owners. That leaves you high and dry. Cases like Canatu, Faron, Bioretec, Aiforia, etc., which don’t make any profit… no one can predict their cash flows with any real certainty. They could all go to zero without ever paying a single dividend in their history. Seeing these halve in a portfolio feels bad because of the uncertainty. If Elisa, Kesko, Sampo, Nordea, Terveystalo, etc., were to halve tomorrow without company-specific news or a military strike on Finland, that would just be a fantastic thing. If the old ones in the portfolio were bought with a good expected return, they would just be joined by new ones with even better expected returns. Just bring on more of the dip, please.
33 Likes
Here is an interesting and reflective piece by @henrielo on various current investment-related topics.
Investment levels are at historic highs relative to the cash flows of the world’s most successful companies. If realized, they are likely to stimulate economic growth, but the declines can be severe, both in the stock prices of individual companies and eventually in the slowing of economic growth.
Subheadings:
- A stock is a piece of a company
- Domestic market rally has continued
- U.S. attack on Iran causes selling pressure
- Buyer’s market
- AI shakes things up
- New financial crisis at the door?
- The importance of energy is growing
3 Likes
“We have estimated a wide valuation range of approximately 5-15 euros for Canatu, which in part reflects the risks and opportunities associated with the company.”
Apparently, I could start doing analysis on a total amateur basis, e.g., the value of Neste: About 10-40e
I wonder if I’m just having a bad morning or if I’m just a d*ck by nature.
19 Likes
Well, they’ve certainly been sliding downhill properly over there.
Market turmoil continues in Asia
Stocks continue their plunge for the third day in Asian markets.
In Seoul, South Korea, trading was briefly suspended when a sharp drop triggered an automatic circuit breaker. Its purpose is to prevent panic selling and extreme volatility.
A broad index representing the South Korean stock exchange was down 11 percent at the time. After the suspension, stocks have recovered from their deepest lows.
South Korea is the world’s fourth-largest importer of crude oil. The country is heavily dependent on oil from the Middle East.
In Japan, the Nikkei index was down about four percent in the afternoon local time. In China, key indices were slightly less in the red.
Sources: Reuters, AFP
10 Likes
Are there any tricks to fix reading this forum on an Android phone via the app? The problem is that the app doesn’t remember how far threads have been read and returns to the wrong places the next time it’s opened. Also, if the screen turns off, it might take me to some random message from 2024 upon opening.
I’ve logged out, cleared the app’s cache etc., but it’s still doing the same thing.
16 Likes
Is there an app for this? I use a browser myself and it works well.
11 Likes
Are layoffs starting in Finland too on the pretext of AI?
2 Likes
Well, I wouldn’t draw any far-reaching conclusions from Vincit’s quarterly change negotiations.
37 Likes
The main reason is probably the current dry IT market, though?
1 Like
Back when I still bothered to watch the CEO interviews related to Vincit’s interim reports, before my holding had melted away, I got the impression that Manni didn’t consider AI to be a topic of any kind. Then at some point later, he mentioned it out of necessity when the trend demanded it, but he still didn’t consider it a real thing. AI caught Vincit completely with their pants down.
The solution seems to be firing employees instead of the management. I don’t really care that much anymore though, as my holding is quite small. I still believe, of course, that they will eventually get something done at that firm, and I even added a little to my position.
8 Likes
Alright then, that’s a good enough reason to down some beers at home reeeaaahreeeah
sips coffee
Got the explanation for the wife ready: gotta save Nordic water hahahahahaha
It’s amateur stuff if an IT company, especially these days, only operates within Finland. It’s generally firms whose business is solely and exclusively dependent on Finland that are going through change negotiations (YT). At least that’s an observation I’ve made.
1 Like
In the railway business, Fenniarail is acquiring more rolling stock: https://www.fenniarail.fi/uutiset/fenniarail-tilasi-kaksi-siemens-vectron--sähköveturia
ArcticRail, on the other hand, recently took advantage of VR’s auction and acquired 3 Dr16 locomotives and 5 Dv12 locomotives. (They already had 2 Dr16 locomotives and some smaller shunting locomotive).
Meanwhile, Nurminen Group’s North Rail now has 9 more line locomotives and 3 shunting locomotives.
We’re still waiting for someone other than VR to acquire rolling stock for passenger traffic. Or well, Suomen Lähijunat did acquire those Sm2 units from VR, but it seems they have already sent some of them to the scrap heap.
4 Likes