(I wanted to reply to a post in the Market Direction thread, but it’s going off-topic so I’ll post it here).
Along the same lines (that societal divergence is widening), K-shaped economic development has already been a trend, and it’s simply going to continue more aggressively than we’ve seen. The bar for where one can actually produce value is rising insanely high.
And I wouldn’t lull myself into thinking, “well yeah, once we see the office bureaucracy and system rigidity, it won’t progress”… it probably won’t progress in FINLAND, but I wonder what happens when (foreign or even Finnish) AI-first companies run by a couple of guys emerge that do 100x the work of a 50-year-old Finnish “Bureaucrat-Pirkko” @ €5000/month in a single day.
I’ve been a coder in the software industry for over 15 years, and just at the turn of the year, agents finally reached a level where I can no longer justify the traditional way of working.
Today (while test-driving the latest Claude Opus 4.6), I implemented a partial payroll calculation for a certain Finnish sector’s collective agreement (TES) into our EU-wide system in 15 minutes. I got cleaner tests than I’d ever bother to write myself, and out of a “good week’s effective (2 weeks real-time)” scheduled implementation, 15 minutes was the agent’s work, and the rest is just me being sure enough of the output and explaining it to foreign testers. I spent the day trying to poke holes in it and find flaws; I haven’t found any yet…
As an EU-wide software company with over 100 developers, our junior recruitment has been frozen for years, and the headcount is slowly shrinking. Just today in the news, there was talk of how youth unemployment is rising in Finland… The education system reform failed the youth, but the bar has also risen insanely and keeps rising, and there’s no place for a young junior anymore unless they show up with their own portfolio, guns blazing.
A Finnish-style societal structure, with its grand promises and “A dignified life is when you get everything you want, a minimum wage of €3000, and of course, an apartment in the center of Helsinki,” is the worst possible fit for a situation where people actually have to start competing for their daily bowl of rice. The situation where the mass of retirees starts demanding their “promised pensions” and only 10% of young people are even capable of value-producing work…