Inderes Coffee Room (Part 11)

Everyone is, of course, free to choose their benchmark or choose not to use one at all.

Personally, I see that investing in the equity asset class aims to achieve at least the return of the global stock market – especially since buying the entire “haystack” in accordance with Bogle’s teachings has long been possible with a single ETF, without taking any active views. MSCI ACWI IMI and FTSE RUSSELL ALL CAP as net indices in euros, or the ETFs SPYI and in the future VGLA, therefore fit this purpose well.

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I always end up typing stuff like this at half past four after Torstaikalle, and I don’t even write about investing stuff then. :confused:

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[quote="CitizenJ, post:6876, topic:71919"]\n25 hours is still a damn lot, unless the hours overlap with work time :smiley:\n[/quote]\n\nI also listen to investment-related content at work and while doing chores. \nI honestly don’t think that constant multitasking is good for the brain. :melting_face:\n(It’s not. We know)\nAnd if I had just invested steadily through monthly savings into something like SPYI for these past 6 years, Gemini reckons my portfolio value would be about €10k higher than with my own tinkering. :man_facepalming:

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That’s a bit like guessing political stances based on a postal code. Yep, in the green-drug-freak area of Kallio, the support for the Greens (Virheet - pun intended) is at least 150%.

In the departments of social and gender studies at universities, the green-left definitely rules. On the other hand, I’ve heard that in the electrical engineering and signal processing department, everyone is a Finns Party supporter (persu).

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Alisa is quite a capable runner :slight_smile:

Following Vainio, the second place in the women’s race went to Anni Kuosmanen of Kuopion Reipas with a time of 2:34.59, and the third was Petra Kilpeläinen of Lahden Ahkera with 2:43.05.

Winning the men’s marathon Finnish championship was Jarkko Järvenpää of Tampereen Pyrintö with a time of 2:20.27. Second was William Mäkinen of Jyväskylän Kenttäurheilijat at 2:25.54, and third was Aki Nummela of Helsingin Kisa-Veikot at 2:27.24.

Now she really took it easy this time. :slight_smile:

Representing Lappeenrannan Urheilu-Miehet, Vainio’s winning time falls well over seven minutes short of her Finnish record of 2:20.39.

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Today, CMI shares in the excitement of the global mathematical community as we contemplate the announcement that the Navier-Stokes problem has apparently been settled. We hope to see waves of new human understanding unleashed as the innovations behind this work are analysed and interrogated.

Quite a tour de force from a new AI model, and I suppose more of these will be coming soon…

Dear fellow investors,

Just in case there is nothing left of the Inderes forum and our retail investor portfolios next year except for a fading memory… I just want to say it was fun. Wishing you all success,

Timontti

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Other people have also issued these warnings, and in my opinion, rightfully so.

Dario Amodei published an essay, “We Must Pace the Frontier,” in which he calls for slowing down the development of frontier AI to allow safety and monitoring mechanisms to keep pace.

And Amodei is not just any outsider AI critic. Anthropic is one of the world’s leading frontier AI laboratories, and now he is publicly saying: We need to slow down.

I have been following the development of agents, and it seems that as they gain more permissions—such as connecting to the internet, APIs, shell access, or autonomously writing code—-> this could become a problem.

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[quote="OldFeki, post:6885, topic:71919"]\nAnd Amodei is not just any outsider AI critic. Anthropic is one of the world’s leading frontier AI labs, and now he is saying publicly: We need to slow down.\n[/quote]\n\nHe is also right in the middle of the AI psychosis community, and wants to talk up his company’s valuation to the moon ahead of the upcoming IPO, while driving regulation that would lead to a regulatory capture situation where it would be very difficult for new competitors to enter the market. It’s worth taking these statements with a very large grain of salt.\n\nDespite this, the risks of AI are very real and serious.

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This article explores a bit of Finnish magic, as a new book on the subject has been published. :slight_smile:

Article in Brief

  • Docent Risto Pulkkinen’s book Rahvaan magia (Commoner’s Magic) deals with Finnish magic. Finland possesses a unique collection of agrarian-era magic.
  • Magic was a part of everyday life for Finns, and nothing was believed to go smoothly without performing spells.
  • Spells utilized bones and body parts of the deceased. They contained the väki (power/force) of death.
  • Previous books do not explain the rationale behind the magic. Pulkkinen is now filling this gap.
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[quote="CitizenJ, post:6876, topic:71919"]\nWhy wouldn’t you at the same time let go of your investments with weaker conviction and move part of your portfolio into funds? Reducing your investment-related activities would be easier when you wouldn’t have so many companies to follow, and the stakes wouldn’t be as high. At the same time, you’d be forced to consider which of the stocks in your portfolio are genuinely good enough to be expected to outperform the index.\n\n25 hours is still one hell of a lot, though, unless those hours overlap with work hours :smiley:\n[/quote]\nGood (excellent) thoughts, and I’ve certainly pondered things like that – and will definitely continue to do so! :slight_smile: \n\nFor me, hitting 25 hours happens quite easily, especially since there’s so much extra time on the weekend. Then early in the mornings on weekdays, and of course evenings and nights are spent checking things out. Naturally, I glance at things during various breaks too, but those are more like micro-glances now. :slight_smile: \n\n___________\n\n\nJust for fun, I’ll drop this 10-minute clip here where Aki Linnanahde interviews Tuomas Holopainen a bit about values, Finnish baseball (pesäpallo), Kitee, and the band’s breakthrough. Nice interview. :slight_smile: \n\nhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yE1XTgTaMFA

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I’ve read Risto Pulkkinen’s previous book “Suomalainen kansanusko” (Finnish Folk Belief) a couple of times. Perhaps I wouldn’t recommend it to the average reader, as the writing style is academically convoluted, but for a folk belief nerd like me, it’s pure gold.

On top of that, Risto Pulkkinen is also a really nice and sympathetic guy.

I definitely need to go buy this new one too. Thanks for the tip. I probably wouldn’t have found this on my own.

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The news about the data center investment came as a surprise, but things have been studied quite a bit in advance - this is from the Muhos EIA:

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Tomorrow is the extra day of the Pörssisijoittajan viikko (Stock Investor’s Week) event :slight_smile:

PROGRAM FOR MONDAY, SEP 14, 2026:

Stock Investor’s Week | Extra Day

11.00 Wärtsilä as an investment: Hanna-Maria Heikkinen, Director of Investor Relations, Wärtsilä Oyj
11.30 Kreate: Infrastructure builder Kreate - Growth to a new scale: Timo Vikström, CEO, Kreate Group
12.00 Koskisen as an investment: Jukka Pahta, CEO, Koskisen Oyj
12.30 Herantis Pharma – Aiming to halt the progression of Parkinson’s disease: Antti Vuolanto, CEO, Herantis Pharma

On the Kalshi “Will Trump be impeached?” market, the probability for “Yes” before 2028 is 59%, having peaked at around 70% a few weeks after the start of the Iran war. Volumes are not deafening, but not entirely insignificant either. Following with interest.

Kalshi is listed among the EU’s equivalent markets. The listing of an individual market affects, for example, the taxation of derivatives in personal taxation (the impact on betting taxation is unclear). At the same time, an epic legal battle is underway in the US over the broad intrusion of Kalshi and other prediction market operators into the territory of betting and financial operators (e.g., CME).

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I think we are ultimately on pretty much the same page. The IPO perspective is a completely valid point in my view: Amodei naturally has a strong commercial interest in increasing Anthropic’s valuation, and at worst, regulation can also make it harder for new competitors to enter the market.

On the other hand, almost all major AI players are currently warning about these exact same risks. So is it really plausible that this is primarily about financial interests, or could there genuinely be a real concern behind it all that development is moving faster than safety mechanisms? I would argue that the concern about the latter is genuine.

But even if the motive is partly competitive, the risk itself doesn’t disappear anywhere. You acknowledged that yourself, of course. Especially in the case of agents, what is worrisome is not just AI “intelligence,” but how much autonomy and rights are given to it. The internet, shell, API, production systems, etc. Capability combined with broad permissions and rapid autonomous action is a much more dangerous combination than just a chatbot that we all use.

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Here are Timo Heikkilä’s posts on Warren’s wisdoms :slight_smile: Many points are, of course, already familiar to many. :slight_smile:

Warren Buffett, the world’s most successful investor, has retired, but his investment wisdom is evergreen. He knows how to simplify difficult things and summarize what is essential for an investor. Here is a compilation of Buffett’s best-known quotes.

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Here is Hannu Angervuo’s article about engineering companies and forest companies :slight_smile:

Forest company stocks look slightly expensive based on 2026 earnings forecasts, but based on 2027 forecasts, they are still cheap.

Based on 2026 earnings forecasts, the stock prices of engineering companies are quite expensive and also clearly higher than the average of the entire Helsinki Stock Exchange.

Based on 2027 earnings forecasts, however, the valuation multiples of engineering companies are quite cheap compared to the realized figures of recent years.

Subheadings:

  1. Engineering companies are heading for a fourth consecutive record year
  2. In the 2027 forecasts, the earnings of forest companies will grow by 70 percent
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Hi there!

Here is a thesis survey in the attached link. It takes a couple of minutes to answer the survey, and I hope to get a high number of responses!

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[quote="Blackparta, post:782, topic:55913"]\nTo think that the shares are still trading on the stock exchange. Someone is buying this dip as well, but at the same time, someone else is finally getting rid of Summa and getting tax losses. At this point, things should be pretty clear if they weren’t already. There is a bit of Darwin’s theory of evolution involved in this Summa case. Whoever buys Summa is like a little innocent gazelle that decides to go ride on the back of a cheetah while it’s taking a nap. These gazelle investors usually get eaten.\n\n[/quote]\n\n\nThis reminded me of Talvivaara; their shares were traded on the stock exchange right until the end, and some people even bought them afterwards through newspaper ads. So, I’d be interested to know how the shares of such companies heading (almost) certainly for bankruptcy still manage to sell? Is it an extreme version of the cigar butt strategy, where buyers assume the company’s liquidation value or some miracle will compensate for the huge risk? Or some other speculation? The buyers must have some logic, since trading is still taking place.

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[quote=“xlat, post:6897, topic:71919”]
This brought Talvivaara to my mind; the shares were traded on the stock exchange right until the end, and some people even bought them afterwards through newspaper ads. So, I’d be interested to know how the shares of companies heading (almost) certainly for bankruptcy still get traded? Is it an extreme version of the “cigar butt” strategy, where buyers think the liquidation value or some miracle will compensate for the massive risk? Or some other speculation? The buyers must have some logic, since trading still takes place.

[/quote>

I suppose the logic is the Sulo Vilén strategy. You look at the stock price and think :down_arrow:

sulo-vilen-halvalla (1)

Another option is that people are waiting for a “dead cat bounce” and selling into that.

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