Inderes Coffee Room (Part 11)

Mr. Schwarz of Lidl is a fan of good old-fashioned conglomerate thinking. From the same group, you can get cloud services and cybersecurity solutions (Schwarz Digits).

In these golden ages of focusing on core competencies (no reference to Iran), it’s a refreshing exception to see a more unique thinker like him. With Trump eroding trust in the use of American services, his in-house model even seems progressive…

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Absolutely! Acquiring a company of equal or greater size is an extremely risky move. While the synergies might look great in Excel, the real-world situation is incredibly complex, with many things that can go wrong :smiley: Research typically shows that the largest acquisitions are precisely the most risky ones :smiley:

This makes perfect sense even with basic reasoning. As the size of the deal grows, so do the costs and complexity. Consultants, bankers, and lawyers, of course, love these large deal money-spinners, but for the acquiring company’s shareholders, it’s quite a coin toss :smiley: It can turn out very well or very poorly :smiley: This would actually make a good topic for a fifteen-minute discussion!

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Yup! And when you make these mega deals, you might soon be making mega divestments too. :smiley: Consultants love that too!

This would indeed be a story for Vartti…

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Someone I vaguely know knew I was an entrepreneur and asked how much he should pay when buying a company. Well, firstly, I’m no expert in the matter, and secondly, the right price certainly won’t be determined over the phone. However, I blurted out a rule of thumb and said that usually, it ends up being 2x revenue minus net debt. Damn, I didn’t realize it might have been a consultant hired by Revenio.

Price paid: 250 million
Visionix revenue: 143 million
Net debt: approximately 45 million

The analyst puzzles over and calculates future cash flows, considers how the market is changing, and brings together synergy benefits. The bosses at the coffee table, however, decide to go with the same formula.

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I’m not against using the term “risk,” but I merely pointed out that it’s not unambiguous.

In addition to risk, could one’s investment goals also be described by the length of the investment horizon? For example:

  • just started, don’t know?
  • trader, everything is traded many times a day
  • FIRE enthusiast, I’ll empty the portfolio by my 87th birthday
  • eternal holder, capital will be inherited, I only eat dividends (or profits)
  • goal saver who liquidates the portfolio or at least changes strategy when the goal is met

Another interesting perspective would be the instruments one invests in?

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Finance Finland (Finanssiala) demands that the EU rein in social media giants. Even partial liability for damages could work if social media platforms are not cleaned up immediately after being notified of scams. Social media giants would gladly curb scams if allowing them costs more than the billions in revenue they generate from them.

Juurikki really likes reciprocal taxes. Trump also talks about them, even if he doesn’t approve of reciprocity. Considering the scale of trade and services sales balances, a 10% goods tax levied by the US would correspond to a roughly 15-20% service tax levied by the EU. :smiling_face_with_sunglasses: This could be handled at the same time as the EU puts social media giants in their place. :wink:

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I just found this interesting-looking YouTube channel that explores abandoned places and the like.

This video about a cottage village gave me some different cottage village resort ideas. :cowboy_hat_face:

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US Federal Reserve (Fed) chairman nominee Warsh, due to transparency requirements, listed some of his assets (approx. $131-209 M), positions of trust, and salaries, etc.

Of note are, for example, $10 million in advisory fees from Stanley Druckenmiller’s investment company. :face_with_monocle:

The list contains 1800 different assets, so there’s plenty to do in portfolio management and other tasks (of course, many of the listed assets are through various funds): https://extapps2.oge.gov/201/Presiden.nsf/PAS+Index/F57618ED6E5F30B585258DD9002DD780/$FILE/Warsh%2C%20Kevin%20%20final278.pdf

CNBC news article: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/14/federal-reserve-warsh-wealth.html

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There’s been some cool movement in VIX :slight_smile:

https://x.com/charliebilello/status/2044047214419267910



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Six years from now, it would be advisable to start buying, and three years after that, it would be advisable to sell, right @Verneri_Pulkkinen :thinking:

https://x.com/NoLimitGains/status/2043963295279747545
image

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Inderes could be characterized as a niche investment media outlet. Every now and then, I wonder what we could learn from Finland’s most successful media (outside of social media). One thing is clearly captivating headlines and topics. For example, here are Ilta-Sanomat’s most read articles at the moment:

At Inderes, I could imagine them like this:

  1. Analyst Recommends Finns’ Favorite Stock – “Can Be Heavily Overweighted with Minimal Risk”

  2. Putin Has Another Cunning Plan – Stock Markets at Risk

  3. Doctor: Investors Have a Confusing Misconception About the Health Benefits of Dividends

  4. Will the Attack on the Own Purchase Party Backfire?

  5. Funny Photo of Arttu Wiskari’s Youth Investment Spreads: “I Had No Idea What Those Stocks Were”

  6. Terrible Setback for Inderes’ Star Analyst – Entire Earnings Season Over?

  7. Bus Driver Browsed Stock Prices on Phone, Drove into Ditch, Got Fired, and Lost Money in First North Stocks – Sued Inderes

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Now now, no need to disparage bus drivers. They are a professional group and surely understand to stay far away from First North.

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Don’t more sensational versions of these always circulate, at least as email spam, you always get all sorts of “This is what doctors don’t want you to know” level stuff. So, a suggestion for the title: “This is what doctors don’t want you to know about the health benefits of dividends.” Perhaps you could somehow squeeze in an Orion or Terveystalo there? “This is what doctors don’t want you to know about Terveystalo’s dividends?”

Edit: Other marketing things related to investing, even if not directly to Inderes, are gift cards. Stores sell all sorts of €20 gift cards for Netflix or whatever else is available. Inderes could launch physical cards that are nice to give as gifts. Not necessarily for Inderes’ services, but perhaps: “This card gives you €20 worth of shares from the First North list.” Or, if you don’t want to immediately throw them into the deep end of the dirty pool, then perhaps: “This card gives you 2 Nordea shares.”

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It will probably increase sales significantly. When you go to Alko for nuts, it’s easy to grab a bottle of liquor and a couple of beers on the way.

No need to take liquor to the grocery store when we gradually turn Alko into a grocery store :smiling_face_with_sunglasses:

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No need to bring liquor to the grocery store when we’re gradually turning Alko into a grocery store :smiling_face_with_sunglasses:

Now we’re getting to the heart of the matter! Those cursed bastions of capitalism, the grocery stores, will finally be brought down when we get a state-owned grocery store in this country! Finland on the rise! :finland:

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Damn, a couple of spacer waters, some nuts and… let’s grab some Maker’s Mark from there too :heart_eyes:

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In this case at least, the CEO’s surname is a perfect match for the company they lead :sweat_smile:

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Except if you happen to end up on a FlixBus. For some of the drivers, the starry sky serves as their GPS, and the driving directions are exactly along the lines of “First North, then south”.

Then again, that’s how the stock market journey went for FN companies too. First north, then south.

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Patria going public? At least the incoming CEO’s previous work experience and the timing of the leadership change raise thoughts in this direction.

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Those have been the driving instructions for many a First North investor.

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