Inderes Coffee Room (Part 10)

Yes, if you come up with such an original movie idea, it looks promising. And a rogue cop, where did you even come up with that :slight_smile:

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Good provocation, but the explanatory factor lies in the shift of employees from higher-productivity sectors to lower-productivity sectors, which indicates a failed structural change and economic renewal in the era of zero interest rates and globalization-induced shocks:

The early 2000s is the first period when labor has shifted from high-productivity sectors to lower-productivity sectors. This is reflected in a negative contribution of labor hour reallocation, -0.27 percentage points. Also in the subsequent period 2010–2020, labor has shifted more to lower-productivity sectors.

In 2010–2020, labor productivity growth further contracted, averaging 0.74% per year. Although the change in value added volume in 2010–2020 was positive, its growth was relatively slower than the growth in hours worked, which is reflected in the slowdown of labor productivity growth. All factors affecting labor productivity significantly contracted compared to the previous period. The average growth rates for the period 2010–2020 remained smaller than the averages for the entire period 1976–2020 across all indicators.

Source: Productivity Studies 2020, Statistics Finland

Before 2020, hardly any remote work was done, and the use of digital tools in Finland was in its infancy, so we cannot talk about 20 years of development. Corona restrictions also genuinely hindered work, and the transition to new operating models was chaotic, so the productivity benefit brought by remote work-forced digitalization did not lead to a statistically huge productivity growth. These benefits will be seen in the near future, if they are genuine.

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The villain could still look a bit different from the good guys. Easier to recognize then. E.g., dark hair… and a scar on the cheek?

80s synth for the soundtrack.

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In the US, stock markets have been rising for half a year now.

Half a year ago, many forum members angrily stated that they would not invest in the US because Trump would destroy the US economy.

Such is the difficulty of investing and timing. When one goes with emotions first, one usually goes astray.

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This is indeed what investing is all about. I have been in the markets for 27 years and I would say that the world always surprises, and in any given moment, it’s easy to assume things will continue unchanged. No one has a crystal ball, and predicting price movements, in particular, is pure guesswork even for professionals. Someone occasionally gets it right, another wrong, but no even somewhat reliable method has been invented.

One big psychological pitfall is also that companies are thought of as passive actors tossed around by external circumstances. In the short term, this is true, but companies employ people who do their best to solve the challenges demanded by a changed world, and companies adapt to changes over some period. Companies are static in the short term in this moment, but surprisingly dynamic in the long run.

Good luck to all investors and strong nerves to tolerate uncertainty!

PS. I also fall into these psychological traps; I often have to stop for a moment at the news and think about the matter a couple of times, and above all, not trade just because of global fluctuations. Psychology is a tough nut to crack, at least for me.

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This. I sold a pretty big pile, and thus all my S&P500 holdings, before that spring crash. That went well. I was supposed to buy back when it had fallen properly and the situation perhaps started looking a bit better.

There hasn’t really been this buying opportunity…

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So this is how “we” support Finnish jobs and employment… shame on you :persevering_face:

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Inderes has had so many negative revisions hit their buy recommendations that these should definitely be taken with a bit of humor. It’s part of the game. :smiley:

But as Atte already reminded, the negative revision was quite expected and in the forecasts. And Admicom has a “add” recommendation.

And investors should look ahead. A negative revision in October 2025 for that fiscal year may not be very dramatic, unless it significantly underperforms expectations.

Recommendations are easily short-term, as target prices are for 12 months ahead. But they shouldn’t be twisted because of an upcoming negative revision if it’s not expected to be dramatic for long-term cash flows.

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Heh! The foreman has an expensive machine under their responsibility and soon 10 men will be unemployed. Should they be put to cleaning until the asshole from the office agrees to receive and look into the situation where their own authority isn’t enough to even sign their name when the price limit is exceeded? Should they know telepathically what the asshole in the office has agreed upon with an unknown customer if things go wrong?

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You are right that the buy recommendation can still be correct despite a small known negative in the market, and probably is. In this case then, both the analyst’s recommendation and the meme made about it were successful. A rare win-win situation :slight_smile:

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Here are Pauli’s comments on crop prospects and the food industry, which should interest at least Apetit, Atria, Fodelia, and HKScan investors. :slight_smile:

From the food industry’s perspective, the sufficient and reasonably priced availability of high-quality domestic raw materials is crucial for enabling profitable business operations. The latest estimates for the 2025 harvest are mainly positive, which, in our estimation, reduces inflationary pressure on food products and provides favorable conditions for the profitability of the food industry. Most clearly, the harvest season favors Apetit’s oilseed products and Raisio.

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Today’s Quarter is out! The topic is certainly one that improves many people’s investing, namely “outside view” and “base rates”, or, freely translated, a statistical perspective on stocks.

Often investors and analysts predict the development of companies too much from their own starting points (“good management”, “excellent product”, “large TAM”, etc.), instead of looking at similar-sized companies and how they have historically developed.

Most companies cannot even grow 10% year after year. :smiley:

Included as example companies (timed):

08:25 Qt Group

09:55 Harvia

10:45 UPM

12:08 Microsoft

13:09 Apple

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Not everything is as it seems. Half a year ago, an euro invested in Hesuli yielded only 23.37% and an euro invested in Sepe yielded as much as 24.09% :zany_face: Hesuli (OMXHGI) blue curve and Sepe (SXR8) red curve.

Since the beginning of the year, Hesuli takes the win 20-2.

Previous 12 months, Hesuli’s win is a tight 15-12.

The previous 5 years, however, have been Sepe’s dominance 110-34.

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Would it be timely to set up a poll on whether Trump gets the Nobel Peace Prize? Someone can do it if there’s interest, won’t it be decided tomorrow?

Nothing new there. We have a truck manufacturer SISU but… look what brand the defense forces are using..

And yes, I know it’s an open competition. Do the French defense forces drive anything other than Renaults?

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Will Trump get a Nobel:

  • Yes
  • No
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I understand the indignation in these cases, but it’s worth remembering that it’s also good for Finnish companies to have opportunities, thanks to the EU’s equality-whatever clauses, to be chosen for deals elsewhere in Europe.

If everyone just pulls towards home, we will be worse off in net terms. :slight_smile:

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I don’t believe that the Nobel Committee needs to curry favor with anyone, though if the state of the world is soon in such disarray, I wouldn’t even be surprised by this in the end.

I often wonder how Ballmer can be among the richest people in the world. But he is a prime example of a good hodler. When you get your hands on an excellent company, you shouldn’t let go.

Admittedly, few of us get a 10% stake in a company just like that, but once luck struck, Ballmer held on tight. :smiley:

Because Microsoft pays a poor dividend from the Finnish perspective, Ballmer apparently still has 80% of his wealth tied up in the company. :smiley:

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Given the fluctuations in the dollar and euro exchange rates, it might be worth adding what the S&P500 has yielded YTD and over one year, without converting dollars to euros.

This year has been exceptionally strong for the euro against the dollar, but currency relationships are cyclical. Exchange rate differences tend to stabilize over even a slightly longer term. Of course, I could imagine that IN EUROS my YTD return of over 50% could now be over 60% if I had invested in Finnish stocks instead of US stocks (as I have done).

But if I had invested in Finnish stocks, my return would actually only

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