HKFoods as an investment

:three: If EPS is €0.30

Dividend scenario:

50 % payout → €0.15

5 % yield requirement → €3.00

Mathematically perfectly consistent.

But…

The food industry doesn’t usually get a 5 % dividend yield requirement if:

  • debt is high
  • margins are thin
  • earnings fluctuate cyclically

In that case, the market may price it with a 6–7 % yield requirement → share price €2.1–2.5.

So, €3 requires:

  • a clear reduction in debt risk
  • stabilization of earnings
  • a credible track record for 2–3 years

The above is a partial quote from an AI analysis. Although HKFoods has been able to improve its performance, a “limit” is reached somewhere. That debt and its servicing are encountered in almost every analysis, including those made by the “machine.” The results definitely need to improve quite a bit so that funds remain for debt repayment while “generous” dividends are paid at the same time. My own guess is that the rise will stall around this two-euro stage. There, HKFoods can develop its operations and pay off debts. And most importantly, react to potential changes in consumer habits.