It will be interesting to see tomorrow what kind of forecasts and recommendations the company receives. Revenue slightly missed expectations—will that lead to projections of more subdued growth for 2026 as well? On the other hand, the retail sector has signaled better sales figures.
The topline is unlikely to be a major question mark in the forecasts; they might shave off 5m. Instead, the question is where margin percentages can or will be set—will they dare to project an operating profit of over 3.5% or even 3.8% for the full year? And similarly, full-year financing costs, -10m?
Margins and net financing costs will likely land at fairly similar levels among analysts. The company’s valuation basis then always remains a matter of the investors’ own perspective. How much should HK’s valuation be below its peers, or should there even be a discount anymore? Can EV/EBIT be over 8, or must the dividend yield be at least 6%? Valuing with a DCF model is even more of a guessing game, not least because of what is plugged into the forecast for, say, the 2028-30 operating profit margin: 3%? 4%? Hardly anyone believes in the company’s 5% EBIT target at this stage, but in a DCF model, the difference between a 3% or 4% operating profit margin is massive.