That’s a good point, that the market has spoken through the bond price. I don’t know if the bond price has risen because of buying activity, or if the yield has simply drifted down over time as maturity approaches and, in the absence of selling interest, this is the result. The investors in this bond are, of course, institutions, but this is still a completely different instrument than “ultimate subordinated debt,” i.e., equity. The investors in the bond and the hybrid bond rolled over last year are the ones the company approached hat in hand during times of crisis; in my view, they are different investors than the stock pickers scanning the markets.
On the list of shareholders, only retail investors have spoken, not institutions. It seems that for pension companies with tens of billions and funds with billions, it makes no sense to put a few million into the shares of an uncertain turnaround company, as the impact of any potential excess return on the total portfolio’s performance is negligible. When analyst coverage of the company is weak and other large investors haven’t made a move, going solo with an investment like this could, in the worst case, get you fired. This is what I mean by saying that institutions will become owners once the numbers are in order—if they do at all.