The number of new projects is already making me breathless; we secured another bridge project from Sweden right after the previous one, and the Mäkelänkatu renovation project was landed here in our home country. Both are quite good-sized contracts.
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Here are Viljakainen’s comments on GRK’s received orders from Sweden and Finland. 
*GRK announced on Friday that it had won the City of Helsinki’s tender for
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GRK’s largest customer currently, Stegra, is rearranging its financing. The company needs more capital for building a hydrogen plant because construction costs have risen and the company has to finance part of the infrastructure itself. Additional financing is being sought for rail and port investments, which accounts for about 15% of the total project costs. The project’s completion rate is currently about 60%.
How big a risk do you think it is that the entire project will not be completed and GRK will incur significant credit losses?
The stock has been down about three percent today.
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I don’t know anything about that project, but generally in construction projects, the client pays monthly installments for work completed, based on the progress of the work. I also don’t know much about the payment terms of that project, but I would guess that the payment periods might be reasonably long. Referring to this, I believe GRK manages that risk by selling invoices.
If the payment period is short, the credit risk is small, because I believe GRK knows how to invoice upfront. So, I don’t believe there’s any significant credit loss risk.
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I guess that financing portion concerns the facility part, land and ground reinforcement works should already be finished. GRK is not involved in the construction of that facility part. I haven’t been following the project’s progress closely lately to see if it’s delayed, but I think GRK should already be out of there.
Below is a link to GRK’s own article.
https://www.grk.fi/grk-sai-historiansa-suurimman-urakan-ruotsista-arvo-yli-2-miljardia-kruunua/
Another matter is how that order book can be replaced and how much this project has generally affected the financial figures. The IPO timing was at least aptly timed with this.
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If it was indeed only about the foundation and earthworks, those should practically be done already and their part taken care of. It has probably already been invoiced, and I would assume that almost everything has been paid.
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Here are Viljakainen’s comments on GRK’s 25 million euro road contract.
Then, further comments from Antti, as GRK’s largest client, Stegra, is raising significant additional funding for its factory project.
From GRK’s perspective, the key risks created by the client’s somewhat surprising need for additional funding are currently related, in our view, to the project’s schedules. A possible extension of the schedules could, in our current understanding, affect the margins of the final phase of a project that has otherwise proceeded well. In our view, GRK does not have significant credit loss risks related to Stegra, at least not on a substantial scale.
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I don’t know anything about that project either, but payments usually come at least a month after the work is done, and upfront invoicing is rarely possible. In this respect, the credit loss risk is naturally limited. In my opinion, a bigger problem than credit losses in the client’s insolvency is finding new work for allocated resources and the compensation to be paid to subcontractors. If the contract falls through, you will still have to pay subcontractors the agreed-upon compensation, which in practice means at least the subcontractor’s margin for the remaining work and other damages.
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https://x.com/zijoittaja/status/1978331492347474341
All quiet on the Western Front.
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Positive Profit Warning:
Updated earnings guidance for 2025:
GRK estimates that its revenue in 2025 will be 820–870 million euros (in 2024: 728.6 million euros) and its adjusted operating profit will be 57–64 million euros in 2025 (in 2024: 45.6 million euros).
Previous earnings guidance for 2025 (published 18.6.2025):
GRK estimates that its revenue in 2025 will be 730–800 million euros (in 2024: 728.6 million euros) and its adjusted operating profit will be 45–55 million euros in 2025 (in 2024: 45.6 million euros).
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Antti and Kasper have provided preliminary comments on GRK, as the company will publish on Thursday, October 30th.
We raise our target price for GRK to EUR 14.50 (previously EUR 14.00), reflecting slightly positive forecast changes, and reiterate our ‘add’ recommendation. We still consider the expected return, consisting of the stock’s valuation upside and dividend, attractive.
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And here are the comments from Antti and Kassu on the results themselves.
GRK’s new CEO Mika Mäenpää was interviewed by Kassu after the Q3 results announcement
Topics:
00:00 Introduction
00:10 Mika Mäenpää
00:48 Q3 Highlights
01:13 Second positive profit warning of the year
02:55 New orders
03:49 Infrastructure demand outlook
04:57 Competition has intensified
06:23 Major client Stegra’s financial difficulties
07:26 Mitigating potential credit losses
07:42 Expansion into Southern Sweden
09:06 Financial targets for 2026
10:20 Labor shortage
12:13 What new does the new CEO bring?
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Kassu has published a fresh company report following GRK’s Q3 results.
GRK’s Q3 results were better than our expectations, largely due to the order book being executed faster than anticipated. We saw no need for significant forecast changes. Earnings growth will be challenging for GRK in the near future, but the expected return, consisting of potential share appreciation and dividends, remains attractive. Therefore, we reiterate our add recommendation for GRK with a target price of 14.50 euros.
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Today, we will likely hear what happens with the Vantaa tram and the Turku one-hour train… both of which will probably affect GRK’s future development.
Indeed, the Vantaa City Council decided to build a tram line after a vote. Therefore, the transfer of the eastern part’s project development project to GRK’s (and Kreate’s) order book and implementation should, in my understanding, materialize. However, let’s still wait for the company’s/companies’ announcements on the matter. The project’s progress has indeed been our base scenario in our forecasts, so the news was not a surprise as such.
This is indeed an alliance project for the mentioned companies (the eastern part of the line) worth 217 MEUR (original estimate), in which GRK and Kreate have participated together with equal shares. GRK’s previous announcement on the matter is here.
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And there it goes!
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Apparently, the budget has grown a bit, as GRK now estimates its share to be a total of 140 MEUR (previously ~110 MEUR). Now, the share of the first phase, i.e., 45 MEUR, will be recorded in the order book.
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https://www.grk.fi/tiedotteet/#/embedded/announcement/71646206?publisherId=69819211&widget=true
GRK’s Board of Directors decided to cancel all treasury shares held by the company. The cancellation concerns over 2.3 million treasury shares held by the company, corresponding to slightly over 5% of all the company’s shares before the cancellation. The cancellation of treasury shares does not affect our forecasts or our view of the company, as we have already taken them into account in our model.
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GRK’s CFO Markku Puolanne was talking about their company as an investment target at the Sijoittaja 2025 event.