Fluence Energy, Inc. (FLNC) - Energy Storage Solutions

Demand was sufficient, so

  • Total amount raised from $300M to $350M
  • Interest rate 2.25% (!)
  • Conversion price $21.35
  • Capped call $28.74

These don’t look bad at this point, when the price is around $16.5 :thinking:

More concerning is the falling price of batteries and, consequently, revenue and margin % under pressure. Demand may increase, but the competitive situation is tightening. As prices fall, gross margin should be able to be increased so that enough remains below the bottom line.

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Regarding Fluence, I didn’t quite get a clear picture of what the “exact” plan is for Trump imposing huge tariffs on all goods coming from abroad to America. I had to take my chips off the table and wait to be able to grasp Fluence’s new reality during Trump’s time. Probably too cautious, but the management’s answers in the summer weren’t convincing enough.

Of course, the price has dropped since then, so it’s a different situation now, but the question is still in the air: what is the real B-plan when tariffs are imposed?

Edit: @kettunen There might have been a question to Fluence in the Q&A section of the Q2 quarterly call about what plans they have in case of a Trump victory. If I remember correctly.

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This is at least facilitated by local production, in which case tariffs have no effect, but rather protect against competition. Where do the raw materials come from then, and what is the impact of tariffs on them :person_shrugging:

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Edit:
US manufacturing has apparently become comprehensive and thus serves the local market. Manufacturing and assembly are outsourced elsewhere in the world, so in my opinion, the situation is good in this regard.

@Divinesia, where was this tariff issue mentioned? It is very relevant information for the future.

Edit2:

I went through the Q3 transcript and tariffs were mentioned a few times there.

Sales and U. S. Modules, we believe that we will easily meet the 40% domestic content threshold, thus enabling our customers to capture the incremental 10% investment tax credit on the project. Our proactive approach to securing the U. S.

Sales from ASC has resulted in a 1st mover advantage in delivering domestic. 2nd, the Biden administration issued a proclamation to increase Section 301 tariffs on batteries imported from China, which also applies to battery storage systems. Today, this higher tariff is set at 7.5%, and it will increase to 25% beginning in 2026. We believe this tariff regime could significantly affect the competitive landscape of the U. S.

Market to the benefit of domestic suppliers. I would like to touch briefly on the political environment and implications for Fluor (NYSE:FLR). The demand for battery storage systems in the U. S. Is supported by the growing need for new capacity, grid accessibility and resilience.

It is well known that renewals plus storage is the fastest and most economic way to serve this growing. None of this is due to a potential change in administration. Our business model in the U. S. Should also be resilient to changes in the political landscape.

Excerpt from the Q&A section:

Christine Cho, Analyst, Barclays : Okay. And then for my follow-up, is there a way to give us a sense of how much of your current backlog for U. S. Projects require U. S.

Sales? I know you’ve mentioned that you could eventually supply all of U. S. Demand with the AEC contract. But curious to know if the majority of your U.S. Customers were mandating that in the contract before the domestic content and Section 301 update came out a couple of months ago, how those conversations have evolved since that update? And is there some sort of rule of thumb that we can use around how much higher the ASPs are maybe percentage wise for your batteries that use domestic cells versus imported cells for your U. S. Customers for bookings going forward?

Julian Nobreda, President and Chief Executive Officer, Fluence Energy : I will say that you will you have seen a lot of interest come up as people have realized the with the new IRA guidelines and the new tariffs. And I think that generally now everybody realizes this is the right move and we’re ahead of everybody. So you’ll see it a lot more than what we have seen before. I prefer not to go into how that plays out because then we’ll get into a rabbit hole of that, that I think will not help anybody. In terms of cost, what I can tell you and this is very competitive information for us.

So what I can tell you is that the costs are very competitive and very attractive even though they include some additional costs by producing in the U. S. So they are very, very competitive and our customers do very, very well when they contract with off the U. S. Domestic contract.

That’s the best way I can tell you. But at this stage, we’ll prefer not to disclose information on the actual pricing, the content offering.

And another comment from the Q&A regarding tariffs, but also competition:

It’s going to be a tight market, I believe, but I think that there will be enough to cover I don’t know about 26, that’s a little bit. But over time, we’ll have enough to cover the demand in the U.S.
This is very important and it will happen. We will work to meet that demand from our part. So I think that there will be more players. So we don’t expect a market where we’ll be so tight as you probably have read some of the reports around.

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I’m on the same page as Fluence myself. RE+LDES will be the winning solution for data centers, and in the long run, I believe it will be clearly cheaper in many places than nuclear power.

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Annual Report 2024 published

https://ir.fluenceenergy.com/static-files/fbfc68ec-a219-4325-974b-5322b51cd130


And a new office has been set up in Japan, a lot more renewables are coming, and BESS is a potential grid-stabilizing factor here :crossed_fingers:

https://ir.fluenceenergy.com/news-releases/news-release-details/fluence-expands-presence-asia-pacific-region-opens-local-0

TOKYO, Jan. 22, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) – Fluence Energy, Inc. (“Fluence”) (NASDAQ: FLNC), a global market leader delivering intelligent energy storage, operational services, and asset optimization software, has expanded its presence in the Asia-Pacific region, opening a local office in Japan to further engage in the country’s growing energy storage market.

Japan is targeting a 46% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, with a goal of 40-50% power supply from renewable energy by 2040, roughly doubling the 22.9% share in the 2023 fiscal year, and achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. Energy storage is expected to play a critical role in stabilizing the grid and integrating more renewable energy sources into the power mix.

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According to the latest quarterly survey from the Australian Energy Market Operator, big batteries have already captured up to 22 per cent of the price setting market in the evening peaks (the 6.30pm) interval, overtaking gas and coal, and trailing only hydro in their influence over evening wholesale prices.

According to data from AEMO’s Quarterly Energy Dynamics report for the December quarter, big batteries set the price at an average of $309/MWh, compared to the average $189/MWh from gas, and $111/MWh from hydro.

That high price mostly reflects the fact that battery storage is being bid into the market in the demand peaks, where prices are high

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Fluence’s results fell short of expectations in terms of both revenue and earnings per share. Additionally, the company is lowering its revenue forecast for fiscal year 2025 from its previous guidance… primarily due to delayed contracts in Australia. The earnings guidance is also being weakened, as the expected revenue and margins are lower than before.

On the other hand, the annual recurring revenue forecast remains unchanged. The CEO also emphasizes that market prospects remain strong and the company aims to strengthen its competitive position. In December, the company raised an additional $400 million in funding to support its growth and strategy.

https://x.com/Bat_tery/status/1889066493838827573

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Remaining materials

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What a report and a quarter :man_facepalming:
It seems that no earnings warnings are known in the US market. Everything comes at once in the quarterly report :face_vomiting:

I don’t feel like digging any deeper to find anything positive there. Maybe tomorrow… I’ll update here when I get even a little motivation to open the report.

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Alright, I dug deep for motivation and picked out some reasons and also positives from behind the black figures.

Sources
investor presentation
https://ir.fluenceenergy.com/static-files/e0863de3-2523-433d-b3c8-a226e7b286b5

SEC 10-Q
https://ir.fluenceenergy.com/static-files/00eefad3-631e-4f0f-b1e2-242ee79afb56

and investor call transcript
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/q1-2025-fluence-energy-inc-060302964.html

Quarterly variation is truly cyclical; Q4/24 was absolutely freezing, and Q1/25 dropped accordingly. This means project realizations significantly affect the figures. The market, of course, draws direct conclusions from these with a ruler.
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In Australia, three projects, due to whose delays, $600M in revenue will shift to 2026.
The delays in Australian projects were due to three project-specific reasons:

  1. Permit issues: One project was delayed due to traffic management-related permits.
  2. Customer contract delay: The power supply contract for another project’s customer was delayed.
  3. Site preparation: The third project is located in a brownfield area, which caused longer-than-anticipated preparation time.

Source: ChatGPT from the investor call transcript

The impact of tariffs should be limited, estimated at $10M for FY25. US market production will be 100% China-free going forward.
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The backlog is still really large, so there should be plenty of work. Project scheduling and revenue recognition are another matter. However, more orders are still needed for 2026 to continue growth.

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The 2025 guidance has thus been lowered. Growth is still expected.
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And there is still $654M in cash from financing, so there is still plenty of liquidity to fund growth.
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My own summary of the figures and the future:

  • Q1/25 went awry, mainly due to project timings, but increasing competition and price pressure also affect profitability.
  • The market priced in a significant increase in risk, quite rightly so, but how much is an overreaction?
  • One cannot really draw conclusions with a ruler about the development of such project-based business on a quarterly level.
  • I was already selling shares, but the market price dropped so low that I felt it was too late. I’m not adding to my position now, but I need to think about selling a bit longer. The company’s operations are moving forward, but with slightly more risk.
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Here’s some news related to Fluence, as the Baltics disconnected from Russia’s electricity grids

Battery storage played a crucial role in the Baltic region’s switch from Russia over to the Continental European grid over the weekend, coinciding with Lithuania launching a €102 million storage support scheme.

Over 8 and 9 February 2025, Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia disconnected from the BRELL network – comprising Belarus, Russia, and, until then, the three Baltic nations – and connected to the grid of Continental Europe via the LitPol Link between Lithuania and Poland.

The move has been in the works since 2007 but Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 accelerated it, and its finalisation was celebrated at an event with the heads of the EU and Baltic countries titled ‘Energy Independence Day’. The process involved over 40 infrastructure projects and over €1.2 billion (US$1.24 billion) in investment, the European Commission said.

Energy-Storage.news has asked Lithuania’s transmission system operator (TSO) Litgrid for information about the role played by one of those projects, a set of four 50MW, storage-as-transmission battery energy storage systems (BESS), deployed for the TSO by Fluence and project owner Energy Cells.

Meanwhile Fluence’s managing director for growing markets Julian Jansen said on business networking site LinkedIn that the Baltic countries operated in island mode for 24 hours while running frequency management tests as part of the process, and the BESS played a crucial role.

“This is when the 200MW portfolio of Storage-as-Transmission-Assets in Lithuania, delivered by Fluence and connected directly to the transmission network, jumped into action within less than 150 milliseconds to stabilise the grid and provide fast frequency regulation services. Four storage projects, each 50MW, will continue serving the Lithuanian people and the region,” Jansen said.

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Fluence brings a new product to the market

  • Modular → scalable and simplifies installation
  • 30% higher energy density

Backed by Fluence’s industry-leading project deployment expertise, Smartstack delivers advanced intelligence, approximately 30% higher energy density compared to other leading market solutions, and drives enhanced overall project economics

ARLINGTON, Va., Feb. 13, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) – Fluence Energy, Inc. (“Fluence”) (NASDAQ: FLNC), a global market leader delivering intelligent energy storage, services, and asset optimization software, today announced Smartstack™, a high-density, AC-based energy storage platform, now commercially available for grid-scale applications worldwide with customer deliveries scheduled to begin in the last quarter of 2025. Combining smart performance, predictive servicing, top safety levels, and a future-ready modular design, Smartstack addresses critical industry challenges brought on by unprecedented growth and demand including performance, transportation logistics constraints, and land use.

Smartstack’s patent-pending design strategically splits battery storage systems into units with easily transportable weight and dimensions, reducing shipping constraints and installation complexity. Onsite, the system maximizes project site density, delivering up to 7.5 MWh energy density when integrating three hundred Amperes hour (Ah) generation batteries. This density is approximately 30% higher than currently available AC-based systems. The platform enables more MWh generation within existing project footprints, reducing costs and making previously constrained sites viable for storage project development.

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:finland: New Fluence systems coming to Finland

NTR, a leading sustainable infrastructure investor and asset manager, has signed contracts with all key equipment and contractor partners for its ready-to-build Uusnivala battery energy storage system (BESS) project located in Nivala, Northern Ostrobothnia province, Finland.

The 55MW / 110MWh BESS project will deliver system services including frequency regulation, grid balancing, grid forming and energy shifting.

Fluence Energy B.V., a subsidiary of Fluence Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ: FLNC) (“Fluence”), has been selected to provide their advanced battery technology solution, Gridstack Pro 5000, designed to effectively optimise land usage, enhance operations and reduce costs while providing industry-leading safety. Once deployed, the system will use Nispera, Fluence’s asset performance management platform, to ensure optimised performance.

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At first glance, the result seems somewhat soft, but a lot has already been priced in.

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It’s quite difficult to estimate what the market has already priced in. The stock price has come down a lot, but at least in post-market after this, a significant step downwards :cold_face:

The full-year outlook was significantly reduced, as agreed with customers due to economic and market uncertainty. This was at least expected.

Total fiscal year 2025 revenue is now expected to be in the range of $2.6 billion to $2.8 billion (midpoint $2.7 billion), down from the previous range of $3.1 billion to $3.7 billion (midpoint $3.4 billion). This $700 million reduction at the midpoint is primarily attributable to mutual decisions made during the second quarter by the Company and its customers to pause U.S. projects under existing contracts

The Company is also lowering its fiscal year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA guidance1 to a range of $0 to $20 million (midpoint $10 million), from the prior range of $70 million to $100 million (midpoint $85 million).

However, it’s positive that the gross margin level has remained at 10%.

Tariffs may even be beneficial in the future, with production in the USA.

Over time, we expect our domestically sourced solutions to benefit from higher tariff levels," said Julian Nebreda, Fluence’s Chief Executive Officer. “We remain confident in the long-term growth trajectory of the energy storage industry, and believe that we are well positioned to deliver value to our customers through our rapid innovation strategy, differentiated supply chain, and product development, which are reflected in our market-leading U.S. domestic content offering and our Smartstack™ product.”

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Fluence Energy (FLNC) is a global leader in battery energy storage systems (BESS), which store surplus energy, primarily solar and wind power, in lithium-ion batteries. The systems store energy at lower prices and sell it to the electricity market when prices are high, maximizing returns. Fluence’s Fluence IQ platform uses artificial intelligence (Mosaic™) to predict electricity prices and optimize battery charging and discharging times, which improves customer profitability in energy markets. This generates 123 million USD in recurring revenue (ARR 2025). The company operates in 48 markets, focusing on the United States, Australia, and Europe.

Fluence benefits from a strong 4.4 billion USD order backlog (Q2/2025), indicating growing demand. In Australia, the company has received support from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA), for example, for the Mortlake project, strengthening its market leadership. In Finland, Fluence is supplying NTR with a 55 MW system, which supports wind power integration and opens doors to the Nordics. In the United States, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) supports the Utah factory, which manufactures eligible battery modules, improving margins.

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https://keskustelut.inderes.fi/t/fluence-energy-inc-flnc-energy-storage-solutions/49899/39?u=sijoittaja-alokas

I moved these three messages from the thread you started here, as there was already this thread about this company. :slight_smile:

Have a nice rest of the day!

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Well, look at that! Great that there’s already a thread about the company here. It completely went past me :grinning_face_with_smiling_eyes: Thanks for moving the messages!

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An example of how Fluence Energy (FLNC) will benefit in the future.

“Temperature restrictions” on nuclear power plant condenser water. The Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC) requires member states to ensure that aquatic ecosystems are not damaged.

Nuclear power plants require environmental permits that define local restrictions for condenser water discharge (TVO, Olkiluoto 1 and 2 nuclear power plant unit operating license application, n.d).

This means that condenser water cannot be discharged into natural waters if the temperature of the natural water exceeds a predetermined threshold, because discharging condenser water would further increase the temperature of the natural water.

Fluence Energy will benefit from such cases in the future, when nuclear power plant production has to be curtailed during heatwaves, as happened in France in 2022 & 2024, and now this year, high water temperatures are again threatening to limit nuclear power plant electricity production.

Fluence Energy can almost immediately compensate for the capacity deficit in the electricity grid with its energy storage solutions by releasing stored solar and wind energy into the grid.

The more renewable energy is built and the more society electrifies, the greater the need for FLNC’s energy storage solutions, which balance and stabilize the electricity grid.

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