For once, let’s post something negative and factually grounded about Faron, so the casual naysayers don’t think it’s strange that I’m always hyping it up. I personally find it genuinely negative that even after the offering, the cash will only last until November 2027. This is very close to the estimated Phase IIb readout, and it shouldn’t be the case that we’re always operating with a knife to our throats, barely having enough money for the next stage. One unexpected hiccup and we’re digging for funding again. Even more importantly, even if the results are incredibly good and on schedule, it’s not a good negotiating position for a partnership deal if the coffers are empty. For this reason, it’s important for Faron to leave no stone unturned to secure, for example, about €10–20M in additional non-dilutive funding. If I were Juho, I would make finding this funding the CFO’s primary number one task once the offering is wrapped up. There is plenty of time to complete this task.
The prospectus isn’t out yet; it will apparently be released this evening or tomorrow morning at the latest. Hopefully, it will clarify why Faron will net only slightly over 32 million euros from a 40 million euro offering. The lead manager bank doesn’t charge such large fees, so is it some HCM loan arrangement, or does Faron have to pay extra fees to those parties that provided guarantees to ensure the success of the offering? The advance commitments to participate in the offering were only about 11 million euros. This probably indicates that institutions didn’t have much appetite for this round; they were still actively involved in the 30 million public offering in 2024. If this 8 million euro mystery isn’t solved in the prospectus, the company management will definitely be questioned about it in the March 17th webcast.
These Faron webcasts have so far had the flaw that they don’t allow difficult questions to be asked. Hopefully, the situation will be different on March 17th.
Fees for the underwriting commitments have been paid, and due to the pricing of the offering and the share price, the fee is likely quite large.
If any future potential returns from Bex, such as royalties, were to be shared with MEDSIR or others through agreements, it would likely have to be announced via a stock exchange release. No such release has been issued, so that is not the case. Release 2.3.26: ”Bexmarilimab is Faron’s wholly owned, investigational immunotherapy”. And if we were already in the royalty phase for solid tumors, it would mean royalties from big pharma. They might not like it during contract negotiations if the rights were already scattered globally.
If a randomized Phase 2 BEXAR trial of that scale—278 patients—were conducted as a multicenter study in Europe instead of at a single site, it could, with good results, qualify for conditional marketing authorization from the EMA. For the FDA, centers in the US are required. MEDSIR also has its reaches there. Regulators look at the quality of the data, not the sponsor.
Before dreaming of further steps, the work must first begin, starting with the dose finding; that phase can probably be conducted in Barcelona alone. We are following the announcements.
Why would Medsir fund research without any revenue?
Could Medsir still get money from treating patients? I mean, if it’s a for-profit company?
Sure, sure. If phase 2 is implemented here, the rights to the data will certainly have a hefty price. Especially if high-quality data suitable for applications is produced. So there are no free lunches on offer, as one might infer from the message. Faron will likely provide information on the details of this collaboration once the deal is finalized.
This is what I already tried to ask on 27.1.26, but since you guys don’t answer correctly 
Inderes also reports that MEDSIR is funding, but it’s not clear from that either.
There’s nothing else for it but to ask in the next webcast if necessary or then
Exactly. Everything looked just like that back then, and since hindsight is the easiest thing, and I don’t even understand the “wisdom” part of that word. I only understand current logic and math based on facts. You should have commented a year ago that it wouldn’t go that way, since you apparently already saw the upcoming FDA-induced hiccup in your wisdom.
It looks like my posts have been used as training data in this AI analysis.
I wasn’t following the company a year ago. And I don’t have a crystal ball either. But you think you have one. That assumption is a bigger mistake than whether or not your expectations were met.
You present valuations here that are based on your assumptions. An analyst presents their own valuations based on their assumptions. Their assumptions are clarified as an analysis, which serves as the basis for the given target price and recommendation.
If a company is doing poorly or fails to get its projects to the finish line, it is not the fault of any analyst. And the future of any truly viable company does not depend on an Inderes analyst.