I would like messages to be collected in this thread, e.g.:
Faron’s participations in various events
LinkedIn likes related to Faron
Speculation about potential partner companies
Light and largely gut-feeling based estimates of the stock’s fair price
Faron’s personnel changes
The significance of recruitments of a few individuals at Faron
Somehow it feels like there would be a demand for such a daily light speculation thread to maintain excitement for us bulls and so that the factual messages of the previously opened thread could be found more easily. (Those light messages could also be moved to this thread)
I constantly maintain the company’s target value of €1 billion by autumn 2025. This is around €9 per share. The justification is some kind of projection of future cash flows (€200 million/year, for 10 years) and the probability of achieving it (50%).
Is this thread necessary? Why should discussion related to the company be split into two different threads? What is intended to be achieved with this? Is the aim to move so-called low-effort comments from the main thread here and improve the main thread’s signal-to-noise ratio? That can also be achieved by posting fewer low-effort comments.
I don’t really understand what the benefit of mere price gut-feeling guesses would be. I, for one, am interested in the justifications for different views rather than just a price guess. If one wants to gauge sentiment around the stock, it can also be done as a survey form in the thread, which also wouldn’t clog the thread too much.
“Is the aim to move so-called low-effort comments from the main thread here and improve the main thread’s signal-to-noise ratio?”\n\nExactly.\n\n"You can also achieve that by posting fewer low-effort comments."\nIndeed \n\nThe last straw was probably when someone reported even a single LinkedIn like in the main thread. The SNR is quite weak.
There shouldn’t be such quick flagging; if someone posts something not so relevant there, it can be ignored. But until a directed share issue or convertible bond has been announced, it can be assumed that the deal is being feverishly negotiated.
This is a good thread, and hopefully, even some unpleasant things that are mentioned won’t be deleted. Namely, a good month or two before the famous hiccup, I wondered why the funding hadn’t appeared or been heard of. So I was politely wondering about the matter, and the messages were deleted. Hopefully, we are now acting in time.
How do you think Faron’s value is formed if a partnership occurs, for example, under the following conditions:
Upfront payment 100M, payments according to different milestones 600M?
I’m not looking for the aforementioned figures here, but rather a view on how the figures affect the value/share price?
Don’t we discount future earnings and the risks of obtaining them? What could be the market size, what share of that would the drug sold represent, what share of the aforementioned would remain for Faron, with what probability would the drug even come to market, etc. Then, for the partner providing the funds, their own required rate of return is added on top.
A very complicated matter! My own estimate is that the upfront payment will be 2-4 billion, after which it will become complicated. To what extent do the markets price milestone payments and fixed tumors into the share price! But, a partner deal is the first proper signal to the big masses that money is coming! Could it be a bubble???
Such a 2-4 billion advance payment would mean a €10 billion market value for Faron, or €90/share. I’d be tempted to say, ‘dream on,’ but people also dream of lottery wins in this world…
It seems that the single-thread model is still preferred, and the administration agrees. Now there are somewhat similar things in two threads, meaning everyone is probably reading two threads anyway, and sometimes it can be challenging to choose where to post a message.
The actual Faron thread has many writers who invest a lot of time and effort, so let’s respect their contribution – as well as the analyst’s work. Let’s read the thread carefully and familiarize ourselves with at least the company’s comprehensive report (it’s available to everyone) before writing a message that adds value to other investors.
The most clicked thread on the forum is Faron, meaning a small ice rink’s worth of people visit here to read messages (many may even get an alert for every message). So, I recommend spending time and effort on the messages posted in the thread – thousands of investors read them. Analytical justifications are especially valuable; investors appreciate all kinds of comments, whether they are bearish, bullish, or somewhere in between.
However, in the actual Faron thread, we could step up our game in some respects:
Short gut-feeling comments without justification usually do not add value to investors. (A short message can, of course, be good if it has a point!) Justifications are important; you don’t have to be able to do the same as analysts or more experienced writers, but it’s worth trying your best.
If you share a link, add small summaries of its content and remind if the content is behind a paywall.
Respect other writers.
Before was before, but going forward, especially due to the large number of readers and because many active writers and the analyst contribute and put in effort, it would be good to generally raise the quality of the thread. So, let’s put effort into messages in the same way as the mentioned writers. Writings from different investors are welcome, as long as it’s clear that effort has been put into them, and they add value to other investors.
Speculation is still allowed, but the justifications for speculations and scenarios must genuinely be invested in so that other investors get added value from them. Excessive bullish “pumping” can feel like manipulation to many. On the other hand, unfounded bearishness without proper arguments doesn’t help anyone.
\n\nThe last straw was probably when someone reported even a single LinkedIn like in the main thread. The SNR is quite weak.
Now there are somewhat similar things in two threads, meaning everyone is probably reading two threads anyway, and sometimes it can be challenging to choose where to post a message.