I don’t think they forgot the AGM notice or the announcement regarding the postponement. There might be some plans underway related to financing arrangements—possibly something more than just a share issue—and the board waited until the last minute before announcing the postponement of the annual general meeting. Could there be plans to bring a matter to the AGM for a decision that isn’t expected to be ready by March 30th? This is just speculation.
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Or perhaps they want to hold the offering before the AGM and then move forward with a clear plan?
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These are really exciting times. Will there be a share issue or not, will a potential partnership with new Phase II/III trial plans happen or not. Otherwise, what are your thoughts on the big picture—does it even make sense to partner with a Mid-Pharma for HR MDS?
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Partnering with Mid-Pharma for HR MDS would be an excellent move right now. The problem has likely been that Big Pharma is more interested in solid tumors, for which Faron doesn’t have sufficient evidence yet. Partnering with a Mid-Pharma would also solve the issue where Big Pharma isn’t valuing the solid tumor side properly yet, while Faron doesn’t want to give up its rights for cheap. A win-win, I’d say.
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This is a quite sensitive topic for Inderes, easily flagged or otherwise removed, but these matters must be allowed to be brought to light within the framework of Finnish law. I am not blaming anyone, but I am issuing a challenge. Antti, have you considered that if Bex were suitable for Faron’s estimated 20-30% of all cancers, it would mean annual sales of 60-90 billion euros? Assuming 20% royalties, that would be 12-18 billion annually; then a 30% market share of that would be 3.6–5.4 billion every year, and applying a success probability of 10% (pulled out of a hat) means 360–540 million every year. Applying the Hex average P/E of 17 would then mean an average company valuation of approximately 7.65 billion, which, with the current share count including a possible rights issue, is €38.75 per share. I am a mathematician; tell me where our 50x difference in vision lies, thank you. My target price with the aforementioned calculations is not for 12 months, but for 3–5 years out.
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Well, Bex selling more than double compared to the top drug Keytruda in 3-5 years. Impossible even if Merck bought Bex tomorrow and started 10 phase 3 trials ASAP.
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And when taking into account the latest deals involving single-indication companies in Phase I/II development and the acquisitions that have already been completed, my estimate is on the conservative side. In fact, I am only talking about royalties there.
Well, yeah. What if you yourself were diagnosed with r/r MDS and had your insurance in order. Would you really wait for long without Bex?
In January 2025, you were also holding an analyst accountable for their estimates here. At that time, you said you didn’t see partnering priced into the current share price, “which is almost a hundred percent certain for this year, or the sale of the whole outfit.”
In your view, the 12-month target price was wrong. You also mentioned that “When that AI sets a target price of about €12, the algorithms between you are quite different. I suspect that the AI has been developed by several people in this case, so the target price you gave for Faron is increasingly called into question.”
Let’s look at the facts. Back then in January 2025, Antti’s 12-month target price was 2.8 euros.
Now we know that even that target price was not met by a margin of about 25%, when looking at the price before the crash in early February. It was still a pretty good estimate compared to, for example, the 12-euro target price you threw out there.
We also know that your views on “almost 100% certain” things have materialized with zero percent accuracy. Mathematician or not, your probability calculations are wrong. Provably so.
As for target prices, just staring at them is quite a futile exercise. The target price is based on the scenario presented in the analysis. Have you even read it? An investor should not primarily look at whether they agree with the target price, but whether they agree with the scenario. If not, then you might as well forget the target price. You can certainly come up with a scenario for any ticker (lappu) where the stock’s value is, for example, ten times less or ten times more than the analyst’s target price. How likely the realization of each scenario is, is another matter.
An acquaintance of mine was recently putting together a price guide for collectibles and was complaining about how all sorts of crackpots were calling and ranting, “your price estimate is wrong, I paid this much myself.” At some point, he probably told someone that if you have a pen, you can write the price you think is right on that page, I won’t mind.
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