If there was any benefit from the recovery of the first Diamyd crash in the Faron thread, it’s a good moment to stop and consider the nature of forum discussions. The same usernames that have been the most active critics of Faron apparently took a risk in Diamyd before the results, which one can evaluate for oneself in the Diamyd thread.
This is a classic example of confirmation bias: risks are indeed seen in another company, but they become blurred in one’s own portfolio. Even Rose Garden’s analyses (online and Gubrick has puffed a link on the forum) were very different in tone – Faron repeatedly receives harsh criticism, while Diamyd was priced more positively as a binary bet.
Do I think I am free from bias? I do not. I look for opportunities in investment targets, I want to support development work, however that is possible from this forum, but the board is indeed followed in Faron as well. As concrete assistance in cancer drug development, I now experience my participation in the issuance as significant. Financing risks (dilution, HCM, etc.) are real – money doesn’t come for free. When you’re plastering, it splashes anyway, and I prefer to focus on the quality of the development work rather than the splashes.
The Jalkaset (and that JUHO!) evoke strong emotions on the board. However, without them, there would be no bexmarilimab or broader interest in Clever-1 worldwide. Both motives, research work and shareholder value, surely guide decisions, and the family has the most to lose in dilution. In Rosegarden, for some reason, they wanted to turn shareholder value into an irrelevant motive for them.
The idea of a hired hand as CEO is problematic in complex cancer immunology. A layman would be in difficulty as the leader of a small expert organization. In addition, Faron has competent people like Ralph Hughes, who can be thrown into negotiations. Why didn’t Juho promise to participate in the issuance with his ownership equivalent of +800,000 euros? Perhaps precisely because of that. He seems to have exhausted his firepower already when buying Faron in the summer and autumn as an option and shares from the market at approximately 2-4.5 times the price he would have gotten now. Not all owners are private equity investors.
Another statement in the Rosegarden’s opinion is that the competitor’s failure as the reason for the collapse of the partnership agreement is incredible as presented by the CEO. This may have been deliberately oversimplified. Surely the failure of the Verona trial was just the last straw. It’s unlikely that the scientific community would have reacted with statements about phase 3 HR-MDS problems at the same time for no reason. Rosegarden also did an “analysis” of Diamyd, a binary risk, but the tone, instead of being critically negative like Faron’s, emphasized a positive outcome.