Even though I wasn’t asked, I can answer! Going forward, all asset managers are under my monitoring. Mandatum is the only exception that is followed together (Mandatum is much more than just an asset manager). All banks, on the other hand, are with Kasper.
P.S. The analysts following the companies are always visible on the company pages, and under the analysts, you can also find analyst-specific follow-ups. Here is my follow-up: Inderes
Hi, thanks Sauli for the reply, it was hidden-addressed to you. 
Yep, I saw you’re on the company page, I was mainly wondering why the thread has been quiet even though you’ve otherwise become active on the forum since returning to work. Thanks for this, we’re eagerly awaiting your next updates “from your pen” or perhaps keyboard, etc.
We’re living in interesting times in the financial sector, there’s plenty to follow.
Happy dividend payment day to Evli’s owners!
When I went through Evli’s figures and the latest analysis, I ran into a dilemma. The company doesn’t distribute all its earnings every year. Here’s what Kasper commented in connection with Q4:
“However, the biggest changes were directed at our dividend forecasts, as the company, contrary to our expectations, did not distribute additional funds from its strong balance sheet (dividend €1.18 vs. €1.38 forecast). Therefore, we estimate that owners primarily value a steadily growing dividend, and we no longer expect additional dividends in the coming years. This clearly cut our profit distribution forecasts.”
The justifications for a steadily growing dividend are understandable. For the coming years, the dividend payout ratio is on average 80-90% of EPS. But the dilemma is that the cash balance is already swelling with cash.
Question for @Sauli_Vilen: What do you think is Evli’s “end game” with that cash? Negative enterprise value? Or the classic M&A card?
In my opinion, last year’s AllShares ownership arrangement proved that Evli is at least not trying to complicate the group’s operations. So, for this already large asset management firm, would acquisitions then be product houses that grow their offering?
The graph shows Evli’s share price, cash % and EV/EBIT à la Börsdata:
In Evli’s case, simply looking at the cash balance gives a regrettably misleading picture. The cash balance may be very large at times, but there are various liabilities on the other side of the balance sheet. At the end of 2024, cash and cash equivalents amounted to EUR 140 million, but on the other side, there was approximately EUR 100 million in loans. In addition, in Evli’s case, the balance sheet is complicated by the small loan position granted to customers and items related to its own securities brokerage (Other assets and Other liabilities). It requires quite a workout to calculate the final net cash from that EUR 362 million balance sheet 
Anyway, it is significantly smaller than that EUR 140 million cash position.
Solvency, on the other hand, is the item an investor should look at. The EAB transaction was very expensive in terms of solvency (a lot of goodwill), and the company doesn’t even have much excess capital within the framework of solvency. At the end of 2024, excess capital was EUR 11 million, or less than EUR 0.5/share.
By deleveraging its balance sheet, Evli could indeed increase its solvency and thereby free up a lot more capital. However, the scale is far from what you’ve drawn, and in reality, we would probably be talking about tens of millions. I would point out, however, that beyond a certain point, this would also affect business operations, for example, by having to limit the activities of its own desk.
Historically, Evli has been a very conservative house and has wanted to keep its balance sheet somewhat overcapitalized. The company’s main owners clearly have the will that Evli can withstand all possible storms on its own. Therefore, no major balance sheet deleveraging efforts should be expected. Against this background, distributing almost the entire profit as a dividend is, in my opinion, a good starting point. Whether the payout ratio is ultimately 90% or 100% doesn’t change the overall picture much 
Sauli has somewhat pondered valuation
During these tariffs, I pondered the situation of asset managers, especially Evli. In my opinion, it is the best positioned of all companies in the sector:
A significant portion of the profit comes purely from managing funds → Profit is dependent on money flowing out of funds + variation in fund size. A much better situation compared to peers, which are dependent on performance fees.
Evli’s largest asset class is traditional funds, i.e., fixed income and equities. According to the latest comprehensive report, their distribution is roughly 60%/30% in favor of fixed income.
Thus, the decrease in AUM caused by the decline in equities plays a relatively smaller role compared to fixed income, which is not the worst investment class now, because…
With the tariffs, interest rates have started to fall. The primary reason for the decline, in my understanding, is the decrease in global growth forecasts. However, investors get a good safe haven from this, as returns are formed from yield + changes in fixed income securities (=falling interest rates generate a positive return).
A negative point finally: fixed income funds generally have lower margins compared to equity funds. So, in my opinion, Evli also deserves a small decline in the stock market in the current environment.
Of course, in the long run, we will drift into a situation where interest rates are close to zero, and thus they are a less attractive investment class. However, there is still time for this. I personally allocated the money from the shares I sold today to Evli at these €15-16 levels. This probably won’t perform the worst?
I would gladly hear counter-arguments.
Just to make sure it didn’t go unnoticed, I opened up a discussion about the impact of tariffs on financial sector companies in another thread: Finanssisektori sijoituskohteena - #671 käyttäjältä Sauli_Vilen - Osakkeet - Inderes forum
CALL: Evli Plc to publish its Interim Report on April 25, 2025
Evli Plc’s interim report for January-March 2025 will be published on Friday, April 25, 2025, at approximately 2:00 p.m. The report will be available after publication on the company’s website at evli.com/investors.
Fund Sales Remained Weak in March
Evli’s funds saw a significant inflow of new capital, with net subscriptions ending up at a positive 124 MEUR. Although a large part of this is explained by the sales of the low-margin Evli Likvidi money market fund, the company is a clear success story in the asset management market for the beginning of the year with over 270 MEUR in net subscriptions.
Sauli’s preliminary comments as Evli publishes its Q1 results on Friday.
The company’s Q1 has, according to our estimate, gone well, as the market decline fueled by the trade war only properly occurred after the review period. We have therefore slightly revised our Q1 forecasts upwards, but at the same time lowered our full-year forecasts due to the weakening of the capital market. Despite the good result, Evli’s outlook has also weakened due to the weakening economic picture. At the same time, however, we note that Evli, with its diversified product offering, is best positioned for a weakening market situation among the asset managers we follow.
Evli’s results are out. Very well in line with forecasts. That small overshoot came from so-called “wrong places” and, at first glance, operationally this went completely according to our script. Despite market uncertainty, the company is very well positioned for a more challenging market.
Steady performance in my opinion. It’s good that the current “growth drivers,” i.e., alternative funds and foreign capital, were kept growing. The slope of capital growth could always be improved, but fortunately, the direction is right. Traditional products are also clearly in the black (net positive).
Outlook and Guidance
Evli expects a clearly positive result for 2025, which corresponds to the analyst’s estimate. The report emphasizes an uncertain market environment, which may weaken short-term prospects. The threat of trade war and geopolitical factors increase uncertainty, but the general guidance remains unchanged.
Asset Management Success and Challenges
Evli’s assets under management (AUM) at the end of Q1 were EUR 19.0 billion, which is slightly below the analyst’s forecast (EUR 19.4 billion). Market development and net subscriptions increased assets under management, but the weakening of the capital market in April may lower the asset level in the coming months. Evli’s shares in international markets and alternative investment products grew, which supports the future of asset management.
A report from Sauli
We are revising our target price for Evli to EUR 20.0 (previously EUR 21.0) reflecting slightly lowered forecasts. We still consider Evli a clear long-term winner in the sector, and the earnings growth outlook for the coming years remains good despite the short-term uncertain market. The stock thus offers a good return expectation at the current level, and we reiterate our Add recommendation.
Evli Private Capital, focusing on accelerating the green transition, has made a significant investment of 7 million euros in Calefa. The investment consists of both new capital and the purchase of existing shares, making Evli Private Capital a significant minority owner of Calefa Oy.
Calefa Oy
Calefa Oy implements comprehensive energy solutions for industry, energy production facilities, and large properties, based on world-leading heat pump technology. Our heat pump systems utilize waste heat and ambient energy. We create comprehensive solutions that provide our customers with significant energy savings and permanently cut CO2 emissions.
Evli Private Capital
Evli Private Capital Fund I focuses on promoting the green transition. The fund makes significant minority investments in Finnish and Swedish small and medium-sized growth companies that focus on the energy transition, resource efficiency, and circular economy. The fund has previously invested in EWQ Zone, a Finnish company promoting retail digitalization and resource efficiency. Evli’s private equity team’s previous investments include Proventia, Solnet Green Energy, Bladefence, and Elcoline.
April was a somewhat strange month for Evli’s fund sales. Numerically, the month was a kind of defensive victory, as sales remained positive. However, significant allocation changes occurred beneath the surface, with 300 MEUR shifting from equities/HY bonds to money markets. This is quite a big change on Evli’s scale. I assume this is purely an allocation change made by Evli to its TVK portfolios, the impact of which on the group would ultimately be quite limited.
P.S., at the same time, I must remind you regarding Evli’s Private Capital investments that they are made by one of Evli’s funds, not Evli itself from its own balance sheet (cf. how CapMan operates). The fund is small on Evli’s scale, and therefore, even though these Private Capital investments receive a lot of visibility, they are not significant for Evli
Evli, as expected, launches a new infrastructure fund: https://www.evli.com/artikkelit/evlilta-uusi-evli-infrastructure-fund-iii-rahasto
The fund should have good demand in the current market, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it became Evli’s biggest infrastructure fund.
Evli’s fund net subscriptions remained positive and totaled 98 MEUR. However, the majority of subscriptions were directed to the low-margin money market fund Evli Likvidi (+64 MEUR). We remind that subscriptions to this fund can fluctuate significantly on a monthly basis, as companies, for example, use it as a cash management tool. Measured by net subscriptions, Evli has been a clear success in the sector for the entire year to date, with net subscriptions totaling almost 400 MEUR. However, we note that Evli Likvidi has grown by approximately the same amount during the review period, and this somewhat weakens the success of new sales.
Looks like they’ve set this up.
The Evli Private Equity Co-Investment I fund makes direct minority investments in unlisted companies in Europe and the United States together with leading international private equity firms. A co-investment fund in international unlisted equities with its own specialized team is the first of its kind among Finnish asset management companies.
Minimum investment €100,000. However, it doesn’t state other specifications, such as the fund’s target size.