Here is a story from Helsingin Sanomat about the situation in Kreminna and Bakhmut. No paywall.
"Ukrainian forces have been at the gates of Kreminna on the western side of the city for some time. The U.S.-based think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on Tuesday that Ukraine has also advanced northwest of Kreminna to within a few kilometers of the city.
In addition to official sources, ISW’s information is based on at least three Russian Telegram channels whose administrators apparently have good Russian military sources."
"RUSSIA thus appears to be trying to encircle Bakhmut by advancing around it from both the south and the north.
According to Tuesday’s report from the ISW, which has previously presented accurate but rather optimistic views, Russia’s success does not look very good, however. According to the report, the Russians are beginning to run low on soldiers in addition to ammunition."
And here is Zelensky’s recent discussion, which also touches upon that reconstruction. It brings to mind, for example, the small modular reactors (SMRs) that are trending in Finland:
And the Kremlin confirms what everyone already knew. Russia will only agree to peace if they get to keep the territories they have seized. So, this is going to be seen through to the end:
It bothers me that a report of a few dozen pages, which I wrote years ago on commission and after extensive research, regarding the influence of different religious denominations (read: cultural heritage) on business and investment ethics, disappeared somewhere into cyberspace.
If I recall correctly, the views of various Christian denominations alone on the forgiveness of different sins and the church’s tolerance for various forms of misconduct significantly influenced business practices. Far Eastern religions added their own unique twists to ethics and the pursuit of honesty.
I have regretted my carelessness several times over the last twenty-odd years. I would still have use for the information and conclusions I unearthed back then.
Yle has interviewed Ilmari Käihkö, a visiting researcher at the University of Helsinki’s Aleksanteri Institute, and Fredrik Löjdquist, Program Director of the Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies (SCEEUS) at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs, regarding the war in Ukraine.
– This is not a local or regional conflict in Ukraine, but an imperialist and colonialist war. This is an attack against the entire rules-based international system, Löjdquist says.
Below are the questions presented to them:
Who will gain the initiative after the turn of the year?
Are there conditions for peace negotiations next year?
Will the strikes on infrastructure break Ukraine’s will to fight?
Is there enough materiel?
Will the West remain united?
EDIT:
ISW reports that Russia may have lost its edge in Bakhmut. No paywall.
The Russian offensive in Bakhmut in the Donetsk region appears to have lost its momentum, assesses the US-based think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
ISW assesses that Russian forces may still target attacks on Bakhmut, but likely without significant achievements.
And regarding how Ukraine estimates those Russian losses—something I believe there has been some uncertainty about on the forum—I can’t provide a direct link to the matter, but video blogger Denys Davydov has mentioned in his daily videos that, for example, the fatalities include all visual observations + when a building is hit by artillery, for example, half of the estimated people inside. This is just what I have heard from Denys’s videos, and in any case, this “info” of mine is imprecise. Denys’s videos are otherwise quite good in my opinion, and I watch maybe a couple a week. Update from Ukraine | 10000 Ruzzian Soldiers are ready to attack | Belarus played the war scenario - YouTube
I wrote this (perhaps my only message here) mainly to thank the active participants here for their contributions on this heavy subject. And I apologize that even though I actively follow the thread, I don’t even give a “thumbs up” to anyone’s posts. (I’ve had to adopt this bad habit because I feel I don’t have the resources to evaluate all posts fairly in that regard, and I don’t want to be unfair to anyone.) Perhaps that’s why it’s better if this post isn’t given a “thumbs up” either.
And to add, the latest daily figures report 790 fewer living Russian soldiers, which is one of the highest numbers yet.
Yle’s reporter in Kyiv comments on Russia’s massive missile strike.
Kyiv mayor Vitali Klitschko writes on Telegram that several explosions have occurred in the capital, in which at least three people have been injured. One of them is a 14-year-old girl.
Here is some fairly recent information regarding the Russian air attack.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense writes on the messaging service Telegram that the Ukrainian Armed Forces shot down 54 Russian missiles on Thursday. According to the ministry, the total number of missiles launched by Russia on Thursday morning was 69.
I wonder if that is really an Igla taking it down? I counted the seconds from the flyover to the explosion and checked the flight speeds of the missile and the anti-aircraft missile.
There are at least 5 seconds from the puff of the anti-aircraft missile launch since the missile passes over. Its flight speed is about 500m/s. The Kalibr missile travels at between 300-1000m/s. The explosion occurs after 9 seconds. So, 4.5 kilometers away. This would mean that the missile’s flight speed would be 4500m/9s = 500 m/s. But since the flight speeds of both would be the same, the anti-aircraft missile would never catch the missile. Especially since its range is something like 5-6km. Either my estimate is wrong or that was taken down with something other than an Igla.
It really is hard to know which camp this Käihkö belongs to, who is now being used as an “expert”.
I’ve understood myself that the flying mopeds brought from Iran can be shot down with, for example, a machine gun. I doubt Patriots are used for them.
“But contrary to what might have been inferred from messages hyping the system, Patriots do not solve Ukraine’s problem with Russia’s air strikes. This is according to Ilmari Käihkö, a visiting researcher at the University of Helsinki’s Aleksanteri Institute and docent of military science.
‘The fundamental problem is that one Patriot missile costs millions of dollars. In the Patriot system, two missiles are launched to intercept one. Current estimates are that the drones Russia received from Iran and uses in its air attacks cost $20,000–$40,000 each,’ says Käihkö.”
I imagine they can be used to select the targets to fire at, so the mopeds are ignored and they focus on those multi-million Kalibrs and the like. And Ukraine does have other systems in use, e.g., Iris-T and that other one I can’t remember the name of [E: Italian Aspide].
Lately, there hasn’t really been much news about the mopeds, by the way? Are there any left? Or maybe I’ve just missed the news.
That Wikipedia article mentioned the Kalibr’s cruise speed as Mach 0.8 (274 m/s). Some versions have a Mach 3 terminal sprint when approaching the target. This is intended to bypass air defenses.
The Igla’s speed is 570 m/s according to the specs. About 4s pass from launch, meaning the Igla should travel approx. 2.3 km in that time. The explosion occurs about 2.5 km (9s*274m/s) away.
Admittedly, the whole video from the Igla launch to the downing of the Kalibr looks a bit strange and I was skeptical myself, but downing the Kalibr is possible with the calculation’s corrected flight speed.
The Ukraine_Defence Instagram account says that two Igla missiles (9M39) were fired in that situation, one of which hit a cruise missile. Presumably, the one fired in this video was the latter of those two and did not hit its target.
The calculations are wrong now. Assuming the initial values are correct, the explosion occurred 5s * 500m/s = 2500m away. And the missile’s speed was 2500m / 9s = 278 m/s.
