A new face for me, Jaakko Kujanpää, interviewed Topi Manner in London: Elisan pääomamarkkinapäivä 2025: Kasvutavoite tuplataan - Inderes
00:00 Key messages from CMD
01:56 Growth drivers
03:20 Competition in the operator market
04:10 One brand, diverse offering
05:05 Elisa’s software business and capabilities
07:50 Cybersecurity services and “digital security” services
09:25 Culture - continuous improvement in DNA
CMD’s presentations are now available to watch on inderesTV. 
A new face to me, Jaakko Kujanpää, interviewed Topi Manner in London.
Jaakko is indeed responsible for the webcast productions of Inderes’s 100% owned Flik, e.g., Elisa’s webcasts, which is why he was present in London and was able to step in for the interview.
Here are Joni’s comprehensive comments on Elisa’s Capital Markets Day. 
Elisa held a Capital Markets Day yesterday and presented its ”old” business areas, as well as the international software services business area, which has now been highlighted as a separate entity to support growth. At the same time, we gained a bit more concrete insight into the drivers of growth and profitability for the new strategy period, which extends to 2027. In addition, the company raised its financial targets regarding growth and profitability. Otherwise, the Capital Markets Day was, in Elisa’s typical fashion, very unsurprising in a positive sense. The recording of the Capital Markets Day can be viewed here and the CEO’s video interview here.
Elisa has become active in fiber construction by establishing a joint venture with MPY-telecom. Elisa’s share is 45% - defining it as part of a 200M fiber construction program.
Here are Joni’s preliminary comments as Elisa publishes its Q1 report on Thursday.
Elisa will publish its Q1 report on Thursday at approximately 8:30 AM, and the company’s earnings release can be followed here at 12:00 PM. The operator market has been better for a couple of years than in years, but customer churn clearly increased in Q4, which warrants monitoring. We forecast moderate revenue growth for Q1 and profitability to have remained at the comparison period’s level. On other lines, we expect slight cost pressure compared to the comparison period.
Elisa’s Result Exceeded Expectations – Guidance Unchanged | Arvopaperi
“Telecommunications operator Elisa’s January-March result exceeded analysts’ expectations.”
Let’s put the Q1 report itself on display, and at the end, also @Joni_Gronqvist’s quick comments on the results: Elisa Oyj: Elisan osavuosikatsaus Q1 2025 | Kauppalehti
Key figures for the first quarter of 2025
I quickly managed to skim through the results. A few key takeaways:
@Pia_Maljanen interviewed CEO Topi Manner.
Topics:
00:00 Introduction
00:09 Key highlights of the first quarter
00:58 5G upselling
03:04 Development of devices utilizing 5G technology
03:57 Decrease in customer churn
05:52 Positive development in the corporate segment
07:22 Profitability impacts of recruiting AI experts
08:53 Software services as Elisa’s way to internationalize
10:26 Expansion of home digital services offering
12:10 Key growth drivers
13:17 Achieving financial targets
Familiar message from Elisa and well interviewed! In my opinion, Topi somewhat avoided the topic of churn. It’s true that it dropped from Q4, but in my opinion, a more relevant comparison is to a year ago, because Q4 is traditionally the most competitive season. In Q1, the so-called Churn increased by almost 25% (i.e., 3.6 percentage points). Below are Q1 postpaid churn rates 2022-2025 (source Elisa Operational and Financial Data -excel).
17.2 % 14.9 % 15.0 % 18.6 %
Here is a fresh company report from Joni right after Q1.
Elisa’s Q1 was operationally in line with our expectations. With increased geopolitical uncertainty, especially due to tariff discussions, Elisa’s stock, in our view, serves as a good safe haven. The company’s long-term and consistent successful strategy implementation instills confidence in the continuation of the company’s good and stable earnings growth even in the current uncertainty. In our view, the stock’s return/risk ratio is particularly attractive in this market situation (2025e P/E 18x, EV/EBIT 17x, and expected return ~10%).
Quoted from the report:
Due to its highly predictable and stable business, we continue to use a low discount rate (WACC) of 6.0%, even though we slightly raised the required rate of return as market risk increased (previously 5.8%). The cash flow calculation’s weighting relies heavily on the terminal value (64%), but it serves as one perspective on Elisa’s valuation, especially when considering its stable and predictable business.
OP raised the recommendation to ADD (previously REDUCE) due to the share price decline. The target price remains at the same level of 48€.
They see that the business is relatively stable, although customer losses in Finnish mobile communications appear as a risk.
This naturally sounds quite good, but is the MSR turnaround credible? Churn is growing significantly, as noted here, and the fiber market puts significant pressure on mobile broadband, which has only partially materialized. Elisa has been growing 5G for the last 5 years, and there’s no low-hanging fruit there to suddenly double that growth. On the contrary, the operating environment is constantly tightening.
One could try to elaborate on and challenge these matters a bit, if we’re talking about analysis 
.
However, for a large number of customers, the price difference between 4G and 5G is starting to narrow, so for many, that price difference of a few euros doesn’t matter much.
All operators are seeing a transition towards 5G, meaning that even though there is churn, for the majority, 5G will remain once they’ve switched to it, regardless of the operator.
So that 5% is a quite realistic figure for all operators.
Elisa announced on Thursday an 8.9% price increase for business subscriptions. Quite a hefty increase, and in addition to myself, quite a few other entrepreneurs have cursed the matter over the weekend and announced they will be switching providers. Elisa’s subscription prices have otherwise been high, and the only reason for our customer relationship, at least for us, has been good and fast customer service, but even that has deteriorated recently.
Can you clarify whether there have been any price increases for business subscriptions in recent years!? It seems that the current price for business subscriptions intended for light use is slightly lower than for consumer customers, but there is a variety of options for every need. On an annual basis, the increase is likely 25-50 euros, depending on the subscription type. Of course, it then depends on the size of the company how many subscriptions are needed. Large customers certainly have their own price lists.
And since I have never worked as an entrepreneur, can I get any tax deductions for a phone and its use!?
And answering myself: Yrittäjän puhelin - Opas puhelinkuluihin ja verovähennyksiin - Puhelinliittymä.com
Those prices shown on the website - whether for businesses or consumers - are such that maybe about 10% of new sales go at those rates. Depending on the channel and company size, sellers have special prices in use that most customers get. That online (price) is for the lazy ones 
It’ll be interesting to see the effects of that price increase - often it seems that customers are quite lazy to compare prices, but this is, of course, an exceptional increase. Naturally, it will depend on what the competitors do at the same time.
A lot of these Finnair people are now being hired by Elisa, and of course, one should also remember Pullola’s career at Nokia, but since Finnair is constantly in the news in a somewhat negative light, a small fear arises that the culture might come along: Elisa Oyj: Talous- ja rahoitusjohtaja Jari Kinnunen jättää Elisan vuoden lopussa, seuraajaksi nimitetty Kristian Pullola | Kauppalehti
But yeah, it’s a top-notch professional, so perhaps my concern is a bit exaggerated.
It has been mentioned, however, that customer-specific prices are also being raised (soon customer-specific mobile subscriptions). Of course, I have understood that Elisa has backed down at least when the customer has complained about it.
In any case, if it is true that all those services have indeed been raised, then the direct impact of that measure on Elisa’s revenue is enormous.
If one assumes that from Elisa’s B2B revenue (750M in 2024 according to CMD), e.g., 600M is in Finland and of that, perhaps a third is in non-customer-specific large enterprise prices or no longer bound by fixed-term contracts, then that measure would generate about 15-20M in annual revenue.
When other price increases are added to this, e.g., this mobile ID trickery, then it remains to be seen what, for example, Q3 figures look like… especially since it might be that competitors are following Elisa’s lead.
Have Elisa’s marketing people sung Telia into the ground? Stock prices have diverged in recent weeks. All sorts of things, quite brazen if true. Among operators, Elisa in the portfolio, a touch of Telia and Vodafone.