BPC Instruments - Measurement Instruments for Biodegradation

BPC Instruments generated some interest on the forum last summer.
I decided to create a dedicated thread for it now, following the Q3 results.

You can learn more about the company through the summer in-depth analysis report:

The Q3 report itself didn’t cause much cheering, with revenue and profit remaining at last year’s levels. However, the low profitability from the beginning of the year returned to the levels of previous years.


Full report:

To mark the opening of this thread, I decided to ask CEO Jing Liu for answers to a few tricky questions, which she very kindly provided.

Hi Teemu,
Thank you for your message and for the continued interest from the Inderes community. Please find my responses to your questions below. I hope this could help understanding of BPC’s business.

Best regards
Jing

  1. Revenue growth was flat in Q3, but margins reached a more familiar level after a couple of weaker quarters. Could you walk us through the primary drivers for this, and what is the company’s outlook for a return to growth?

Q3 revenue remained stable, with variations mainly linked to the timing of larger biogas orders. The slight variation mainly reflects the timing of larger orders within the biogas segment, which can shift between quarters. Margins improved due to a more favourable product mix and cost management. The company does not provide forward-looking guidance yet, though underlying demand in the company’s main application areas continues to show stability. Our focus remains on sustainable, profitable growth supported by diversification and close collaboration with our customers.

  1. The European Commission has ambitious targets for sustainable biomethane, aiming for 35 bcm by 2030, up from the current 7 bcm (as of Q1 2025). From your industry perspective, how realistic is this target? And more specifically, how important is this target to BPC’s future growth strategy?

The EU’s 35 bcm biomethane target by 2030 is certainly ambitious, and there are still barriers that need to be overcome to accelerate progress. Nevertheless, it demonstrates a strong political commitment to developing the biomethane sector as a means of ensuring Europe’s energy security and sustainability.

From an industry perspective, this is a very positive and encouraging direction, providing strong motivation for further biomethane development. It will also drive demand for advanced analytical technologies where BPC can provide great contribution, which are essential for scaling up biomethane production efficiently. BPC’s solutions are increasingly recognised in this context, supporting both R&D activities and operational biomethane facilities across Europe and beyond.

  1. The company has made a clear effort to diversify by expanding into new sectors. Could you elaborate on the long-term potential this creates for the company’s growth and resilience?

Our diversification into biodegradability testing builds directly on our core expertise in biological process analysis. The market is growing, driven by new regulations and industrial interest in sustainable materials. This expansion allows us to reach a broader customer base, balancing the investment cycles of the biogas market.\

  1. Regarding the new consultation and training service: Is the primary objective to create a new, distinct revenue stream, or is it mainly a strategic initiative to improve customer satisfaction and retention?

The consultation and training service enables us to work even closer to our customers, including clients from biogas plants and laboratories that rely on our instruments daily. By sharing our knowledge, we help them achieve more accurate and consistent data, while also deepening our understanding of real-world challenges. It strengthens customer satisfaction and retention, and over time, may develop into an additional revenue stream.

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The share price seems to be sliding down quite sharply; I took a superficial look at the Q3 results, and there is clearly pressure on the cost side.

However, what caught my eye in the cash flow statement is the line “changes in Investments receivables”, -6,000 KSEK for Q1-Q3 25, which as I understand it stems from the growth of the Endowment insurance line on the balance sheet. Comment in the Q3 report:

“Endowment insurance holdings increased to KSEK 16,621 (9,121) following regular allocations in line with the company’s long-term incentive structure”.

Cash flow from operating activities for the Jan-Sep period was 8,029 KSEK, so 6,000 KSEK of that goes to management incentives, if the conditions are met in the future?

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Financial statement release is out. Phew, first the most important: no dividend. Otherwise, somewhat lackluster growth in Q4, as with the whole year. Q4 was a record quarter in sales, though.

Q4 | 2025-10-01-2025-12-31

  • Net sales amounted to 18,170 (17,119) KSEK, an increase of 6.1 percent.
  • EBIT amounted to 1,675 (2,888) KSEK, with an EBIT margin of 9.2 percent.
  • Net profit amounted to 4,536 (2,339) KSEK.
  • Earnings per share for the fourth quarter amounted to 0.41 (0.22) SEK.

FY | 2025-01-01-2025-12-31

  • Net sales for the year amounted to 64,847 (62,423) KSEK, an increase of 3.9 percent.
  • EBIT for the year amounted to 8,754 (16,284) KSEK, with an EBIT margin of 13.5 percent.
  • Net profit amounted to 9,789 (13,454) KSEK, a decrease of 27.2 percent.
  • Earnings per share for the year amounted to 0.88 (1.29) SEK.
  • At the end of the year equity/asset ratio was 92 (89) percent.
  • Total cash and cash equivalents amounted to 65,149 (33,982) KSEK.
  • The Board of Directors proposes that no dividend be paid for the financial year 2025.

Chart from the report itself:

Profitability is taking a hit from growth investments and a weaker dollar. Expenses are in krona.

Apparently demand is stable, but decision-making is slower. I have definitely heard this often. :smiley:

“Our pipeline remains stable, and we continue to see broad interest across our application areas. We have observed no structural loss of business but rather shifts in purchasing decisions and project timing. Accordingly, our efforts have focused on improving conversion rates and shortening lead times where possible, while maintaining quality and customer outcomes.”

Anyway, progress continues.

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Tensions in the Middle East have raised energy prices again, and if the situation persists, one could expect it to have a positive impact on bioenergy production. So far, at least, it hasn’t been reflected in this company’s share prices.

Recently, a 260-page tome was published for some evening reading regarding biomethane market forecasts up to 2030.

Here is a summary.

Strong growth figures are being predicted.

A few months ago, I asked CEO Liu for his opinion on the market situation, and he sent this excerpt from LinkedIn as a response:
Biogas and biomethane are no longer about “potential” — but they are not yet about scale.
Across Europe:

  • Biomethane production has been growing at ~15–20% per year
  • €27bn of investment is already earmarked for biomethane capacity this decade
  • EU plans point to ~15 bcm/year committed by 2030 — still far short of the 35 bcm REPowerEU ambition
    Bio-LNG is also moving from concept to reality:
  • 29 bio-LNG plants were operating in Europe in 2023
  • 130+ projects are scheduled by 2027, with ~21 TWh/year of confirmed capacity
    And alongside molecules, something else is accelerating: interest in biogenic CO₂, driven by food & beverage resilience, e-fuels and carbon removals.
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