“If someone is actually accumulating a million-scale position in a company whose free float is not huge, the last thing they want is to deliberately crash the price and weaken their own position.”
Good reasoning in general. However, I disagree with this quoted part. Even though I am just a retail investor myself, I can think of many reasons to “crash” the price. One quite obvious reason is to acquire as large a stake as possible “on the cheap.” These attempts actually started as early as last year, but block trade inquiries did not lead to a sufficient position, so they have to buy from the exchange.
I am fairly sure that if that buyer does not come forward officially before the release of the financial statements, we will see such a crash on the results day. Toljamo will have to pull ten real white mountain hares out of his top hat instead of a rabbit for it to be enough for the public. The current price level is so high that the guidance will be a disappointment to most. And the buyer behind SEB will take 100% advantage of this.
This would be avoided if information about the buyer came to light beforehand, but it won’t, because the buying is still ongoing.