Berkshire Hathaway - Funds still for Buffett or an index?

Buffet has always emphasized America in his investments. Would it now be time to change strategy and start buying outside the US where valuations are also more moderate? When will an announcement be published about an acquisition in Europe or Australia?

There’s already a significant (23.5 billion dollar at year-end) pot in Japanese companies, and these might still be subject to further investments in the future. Japan is a somewhat surprising opening to foreign companies; somehow I would have guessed a culturally closer region (e.g., Canada, UK, Australia, or EU).

“Berkshire’s investments in the companies had totaled $23.5 billion at the end of 2024.
“In the next 50 years, we won’t give a thought to selling those,” Buffett said. “We have been treated extremely well by the five companies… Our main activity is just to cheer and clap.””

It will be interesting to follow the company’s development in the future; if the company is allowed to grow further, it will become an elephant in a china shop, making big moves very difficult.

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Dividend Engineer Jesse Viljanen has compiled a truly wonderful summary of the thoughts and lessons Warren shared at the annual meeting. :slight_smile:

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An additional note on the Japanese investments is that Buffett would gladly see even larger sums invested in these companies. But Berkshire’s enormous size vs. Japanese companies makes it difficult:

“It’s too bad that Berkshire has gotten as big as it is because we love that position and I’d like it to be a lot larger. Even with the five companies being very large in Japan, we’ve got at market in the range of $20 billion invested, but I’d rather have $100 billion than $20 billion. That’s how I feel about several other investments we have. But size is an enemy of performance at Berkshire, and I don’t know any good way to solve that problem.”

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Last Friday, I attended an event organized by Gabelli Funds in Omaha, which reviewed BRK’s current situation, especially its cash position. In one panel, two panelists threw a wild card on the table and speculated that BRK could buy Ikea. Well, the brothers probably weren’t aware that Ikea is 100% owned by the Inter IKEA Foundation. A fun idea nonetheless.

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A few more takeaways from the annual meeting, partly familiar information but with a slightly new perspective (and direct quotes from Buffett).

One thing that has been typical for Berkshire is that (large) investment decisions are actually made very rarely. Purchases and sales are easily spread over several quarters, but the decisions themselves are truly infrequent.

Buffett explained this at the annual meeting as follows:

"I’ve had about 16,000 trading days in my career. It would be nice if every day you got four opportunities or something like that with equal attractiveness. If I was running a numbers racket, every day would have the same expectancy that I would keep 40% of whatever the handle was, and the only question would be how much we transacted. But we’re not running that kind of business.

We’re running a business which is very opportunistic. Charlie always thought I did too many things. He thought if we did about five things in our lifetime, we would end up doing better than if we did 50, and that we never concentrated enough."

Those 16,000 stock market days vs. an investment decision now and then (like a couple of times a year) says a lot about how the compound interest phenomenon has been achieved.

Edit. Addition to the topic:

“Charlie always pointed out that we made most of our money out of about eight or nine ideas over 50 years. We talked about it every day and read every report and did everything else. But if you think you can get an idea a day from listening to your broker or reading financial information, forget it. Every now and then you get extraordinary opportunities, and most of the time you don’t have much of an edge.”

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On waiting for suitable investment opportunities: Buffett emphasized that great opportunities come irregularly and they want to have cash available when a big opportunity arises:

"If you told me that I had to invest $50 billion every year until we got down to $50 billion in cash, that would be the dumbest thing in the world.

Things get extraordinarily attractive very occasionally. The long-term trend is up. But nobody knows – Greg doesn’t know, Ajit doesn’t know, nobody knows what the market is going to do tomorrow, next week, or next month. Nobody knows what business is going to do tomorrow, next week, or next month. But they spend all their time talking about it because it’s easy to talk about, though it has no value.

The process of leafing through things like that big Japanese book I can’t read anymore – that’s a treasure hunt. Every now and then you find something. Occasionally, very occasionally – but it’ll happen again, I don’t know when – it could be next week, it could be 5 years off, but it won’t be 50 years off – we will be bombarded with offerings that we’ll be glad we have the cash for.

It would be a lot more fun if it would happen tomorrow, but it’s very unlikely to happen tomorrow. It’s not unlikely to happen in five years, and the probabilities get higher as you go along."

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Buffett on patience: One must patiently wait for great opportunities, but when an opportunity arises, it is important to act quickly. The trick is to prepare for things long and carefully, so that one is ready when the opportunity strikes:

" There are times when you have to act fast. In fact, we’ve made a great deal of money because we’re willing to act faster than anybody around."

“So patience is a combination of patience and a willingness to do something that afternoon if it comes to you. You don’t want to be patient about acting on deals that make sense, and you don’t want to be very patient with people talking to you about things that will never happen.”

“But you don’t want to be patient when the time comes to act – you want to get it done that day.”

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Greg Abel spoke about capital allocation, the order in which investments are allocated. In short, the order is as follows:

  1. First, the capital needs of current Berkshire-owned companies are examined
  2. Next, opportunities to acquire 100% of companies are explored, and
  3. Thirdly, investment opportunities are sought from the stock market

I find this order noteworthy when considering Berkshire’s future. This sets a very clear framework for how capital will be allocated in the future.

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Another Warren Buffett discussion. In the first part, we go through some permanent holdings and the portfolio with Jesse “Dividend Engineer” Viljanen and Henri Blomster (Asilo AM).

0:00 Warren Buffett, Jesse “Dividend Engineer” Viljanen and Henri Blomster, Asilo Asset Management
00:52 Hims and Hers stock’s +700% return, potency jokes, and the pharmaceutical angle
01:42 Buffett fandom, gym equipment, BKS mugs and merch ideas
02:30 Insider idea and BRK annual meeting memories
02:58 Heikki Keskiväli’s sherpa-ing, meeting experience exceeded expectations
03:52 Queuing for front-row seats, flipper Netta comments on Buffett’s real estate criticism
04:37 Investment apartments, difference between Munger’s and Buffett’s investment styles
05:48 The meeting was a celebration for fans, Q1 earnings softness, best holding period is forever
07:30 Greg Abel, energy unit results, anointed as leader
09:41 Coca-Cola, challenges of Buffett’s investment scale, needs for strategy changes
11:20 AmEx, Growth of credit card companies and ecosystem thinking
13:05 Japan investments and lack of buying opportunities
14:57 Motivational value of cash flow for investors
16:57 Importance of dividends in investment strategy and tax implications
18:53 Berkshire’s share repurchases and book value thresholds

It was indeed a great journey, I’ll try to get another episode with Heikki Keskiväli once his work commitments ease up.

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Cash and a certain agility in decision-making have been an advantage for Berkshire throughout its history. However, as its size has grown and the central bank Fed has become increasingly helpful towards the market, that advantage has somewhat diminished. Berkshire’s cash can only truly go to work in a proper crash, one that doesn’t remain a month-long V-dip like the coronavirus or, now more mildly, this “Liberation Day” dip.

Such a larger dip practically also requires that the Fed, for one reason or another, is not willing to immediately rescue the stock market with a liquidity injection.

Berkshire’s approach is still absolutely correct.

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Buffett reveals in a WSJ interview (about which an article has been made in Kauppalehti) the reasons why he decided to retire from the CEO position now:

"Now Buffett tells The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) why the move is being made. According to 94-year-old Buffett, the reason is his age.

“There was no magical moment. You know that feeling when you’ve gotten old?” Buffett asks in the WSJ.

Buffett tells the WSJ that he started to feel old when he turned 90. His balance began to weaken, and Buffett started to forget people’s names.

“When you start to get old, it becomes irreversible,” Buffett tells the WSJ."

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According to the tweet below, Warren Buffett is allowed by special permission from the SEC to buy shares “in secret” so that the acquisitions do not affect the stock price.

Only a few funds have this special privilege. In 2023, Chubb Insurance was revealed as the secret stock.

SEC:

https://x.com/amitisinvesting/status/1923181180519641103
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(Piippo, Pallas Air?)

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Hopefully it accumulates like that for me too :smiley:

https://x.com/dividendology/status/1923408350659682308
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Here are Warren’s purchases; the P/E ratios have been in order, at least at the time of purchase. :sunglasses:

https://x.com/dividendology/status/1924468082887516271

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With this news, we can speculate whether Berkshire Hathaway (owner of BNSF) will be pressured to make a takeover bid for CSX if the merger of Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern materializes. :steam_locomotive:

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Berkshire’s Q2 was quite varied, it seems; for example, the insurance business faced setbacks, even though car insurance company Geico managed a small profit despite high costs. Electricity and railways, on the other hand, seemed to be performing well. The cash reserves took a small hit, and own shares were not bought this time. Kraft Heinz saw a significant write-down, although the investment is still in the black.

Berkshire also warned about tariffs and trade policy uncertainties, which could continue to erode the results of almost all owned companies. Buffett’s giant cash pile is likely to remain large for some time yet.

In this context, the management change is naturally a concern again, as Buffett steps down as CEO at the end of the year, and after that, Greg Abel takes the helm, even though the Oracle himself remains Chairman of the Board.

https://x.com/EconomyApp/status/1951650298549985481
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The company’s simple homepages, where “everything” is visible

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2025 Second Quarter Report (PDF file)

Second Quarter Earnings 2025

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An easy-to-read and informative comment: Takeaways From Berkshire Hathaway’s Second Quarter 2025 Earnings by Bill Stone,

What do you think of the results, were they in line with expectations, and is the current valuation of the stock justified?

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The changes that occurred in Berkshire’s US stock portfolio during the second quarter (April 1 - June 30) have now been published:

(These listings only include US-listed stocks.)

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Apple sales continue. According to UNH, the jump is perhaps the most interesting, albeit a move worth less than one percent.

From quarter to quarter, pizzas and swimming pools are also of interest. Should I be interested in these too?

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